Saturday, May 08, 2010

UFC 113 Predictions

After my 112 predictions went oh so well, I'm back to give some more wisdom. I'll note my theoretical wagers as I go through my picks.

UFC Undercard:

John Salter over Jason MacDonald
Yoshiyuki Yoshida over Mike Guymon
Tim Hague over Joey Beltran
T.J. Grant over Johny Hendricks
Marcus Davis over Jonathan Goulet
Tom Lawlor over Joe Doerksen

Main Card:

Sam Stout over Jeremy Stephens

Sam Stout lives up to his "Hands of Stone" nickname.

Alan Belcher over Patrick Cote

I don't want to make this pick, but Cote hasn't fought in forever. I think the rust will end up working against him.

Matt Mitrione over Kimbo Slice

Kimbo Slice looks very improved when he defeated Houston Alexander, but that was in part because Houston Alexander decided not to try to engage Slice in any sort of fight. Mitrione isn't going to take that strategy, and is a very good fighter as well. As much as I like Kimbo, I can't pick him.

Josh Koscheck over Paul Daley

Josh Koscheck will win this fight unless he tries to stand with Daley. Koscheck is arrogant enough to try to do this, but I think the lure of getting a title fight is enough to keep Koscheck on the right game plan and give him the win.

Bets: Josh Koscheck to win: $25 @1.33 to win $33.25, Koscheck to win via decision: $10 @ 4.5 to win $45

Lyoto Machida over Mauricio Shogun Rua for the 205-pound title

Ultimately, this fight comes down to who can adjust from the prior fight the best. I felt Rua won the first fight, but I think Machida is actually going to adjust better. He has the advantage, as his weakness was demonstrated in the first fight. Rua really didn't make any mistakes in the first fight; what adjustments can he make to that strategy?

Bets: Lyoto Machida to win: $10 @ 1.5 to win $15, the fight goes the distance: $10 @ 2.1 to win $21

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