UFC 135 Thoughts

After UFC 133, I was wondering if the Rashad Evans/Tito Ortiz fight really taught us anything. My theory was that Rashad beating a quick-returning Tito Ortiz really didn't show us anything - Rashad is assumed to be a much better fighter than Ortiz, Ortiz was just returning after 4 weeks from his previous fight, and Ortiz was only fighting after 2 1/2 weeks notice. We would have learned more if Rashad did not finish Ortiz. But my pal GG of Fight Game Blog responded in a tweet saying "Rashad could give Jones a little more trouble than I originally thought."

After tonight I get what he means.

I mentioned in my preview post that Jon Jones really hadn't been tested by competition as of yet. Tonight did not really change that. While Rampage Jackson might be the toughest opponent that Jon Jones has faced, it really wasn't a difficult fight for him. Jackson has a definitive style (straight ahead striking, preferably from up close) that you can counter; he's not going to bring a varied game plan at all. With Jones being in the Greg Jackson camp, bringing a straightforward, one tone style to a Jon Jones fight is an easy way to lose.

What Rashad Evans brings to a table is a style that is difficult to imitate. Much like Jones, Evans' strikes come at you from unusual angles and levels. Evans is also a very good wrestler; Jones will also have to worry about the threat of being taken down. These are two things that Jones has never had to deal with in any other fight. For him to deal with one would be interesting; to deal with two in the same fight will likely produce the definitive statement on how good Jon Jones is.
***
Tonight also saw what seems to be the end of Matt Hughes' career. Age has forced a changing of the guard; instead of Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture and Matt Hughes, the faces of the UFC are Georges St. Pierre, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva and Brock Lesnar.

What stays constant though is the UFC brand. The brilliance of Dana White and the Fertitta brothers was their decision to push UFC ahead of individual fighters, and to take advantage of the UFC name to equate MMA with UFC. When people talk about fighting, it is normally referred to as Ultimate Fighting or UFC. MMA is not mentioned by the general sports media.

This equality allowed UFC to build a monopoly of sorts, and to own the market. It also lets them weather losing their old stars, and create new stars.
***
My predictions ended up being 8-2, putting my record for the year at 78-40-2. My theoretical wagers ended up winning me $29.50 (thanks Mark Hunt!), putting my winnings for the year at $103.30.

UFC 135 Predictions

Preliminary bouts (Facebook):

Ricardo Romero over James Te-Huna

Wager: $10 on Ricardo Romero at 2.35 odds to win $27

Takeya Mizugaki over Cole Escovedo
Junior Assuncao over Eddie Yagin

Wager: $10 on Junior Assuncao at 2.20 odds to win $22

Preliminary bouts (Spike):

Tim Boetch over Nick Ring

Aaron Riley over Tony Ferguson

Call this a hunch pick - Ferguson probably should win, but Riley is a difficult and unique opponent.

Main card:

Nate Diaz over Takanori Gomi
Travis Browne over Rob Broughton

Mark Hunt over Ben Rothwell

This is officially the dumbest prediction I have ever made. But Ryan Fredrick explains the logic behind the pick well. Basically, if you take Hunt down, you will win. However, Rothwell is essentially the heavyweight version of Yoshihiro Akiyama. Rothwell refuses to use his greatest strength - his wresting - to win. So Hunt will probably end up with another knockout victory.

As I said, the dumbest prediction I have ever made.

Wager: $10 on Mark Hunt to win at 3.75 odds to return $37.50

Josh Koscheck over Matt Hughes

Diego Sanchez has to be angry that he had to pull out of this fight. For whatever reason, the Hughes name still holds a lot of value as a name on a resume, even though he is no longer an elite fighter, or even at the level just lower than that. And with the Diaz/GSP fiasco giving Carlos Condit the next title shot, there was an outside chance that Sanchez could have gotten the next title shot.

Instead, Koscheck returns from the hellacious beating GSP laid on him to instead get to face Hughes and prove that he is at that level behind GSP. Koscheck is very low on the list of title contenders thanks to his poor performance against GSP, but should GSP lose the title or the other contenders fail, he is in a spot where he can get the title shot.

I expect Koscheck to win, and to stop the fight by knockout.

Lightheavyweight Title: Jon Jones over Quentin "Rampage" Jackson

Ryan Pike has a great piece on how the Lightheavyweight division is truly the division of death. The title has changed hands in every title fight since Rampage Jackson unified the UFC and Pride LHW titles, save the first Machida/Rua fight where most people felt that the champion lost the fight.

But this time is supposed to be different; Jon Jones legitimately feels like a phenom. How somebody is going to beat him is really unknown, mostly because Jones has looked like a dominant fighter in every fight we have seen him in. What gets lost in this is that Jones has only fought one top 10 fighter in Shogun Rua, and really hasn't been tested in any way. We don't know how he will react to being hit by a hard strike, nor do we know how he will react to being put in a position to defend against a submission.

Rampage Jackson is not going to test Jones' submission defenses, but he can test Jones' ability to take a shot. I think he will throw some bombs early on, but Jones will weather it and wait for Jackson to tire before taking over the fight. I don't know if Jones will finish the fight, but he will win the fight.

UFC 134 Reflections

Some things learned from UFC 134...

• In case there was any question left, Anderson Silva is the best pound for pound fighter in the world. His second round destruction of Yushin Okami was incredibly impressive.
  
  You could see the set up for round 2 at the end of the first round. Okami actually won the first round (at least in my view); Okami hit more strikes while controlling the Octagon and playing the aggressor. However, at the end of the first round, Silva hit a high kick which stunned Okami and lead to Silva ending the round in a dominant spot.
  
  In the second round, Silva knocked down Okami, and then let Okami up. This harkened back to the bad days of 2009/2010, when you could tell Silva was the dominant fighter but he chose to instead clown around instead of finishing a fight. Luckily, Silva seemed to have the opinion that he needed to finish the fight, and after he clipped Okami again, Silva made a move to get into a dominant position over the prone Okami, and then Silva rained down punches until Herb Dean stopped the fight.
  
  Silva showed a killer instinct that had been somewhat lacking prior. Whether it was his experience with Chael Sonnen, or if it was his desire to impress the Brazilian live crowd, Silva came out and finished a fight that in the past he would have instead messed around with, content to ge the decision victory. If this is a demonstration of Silva's new desire to show how dominant he is, then nobody can touch Silva as a fighter, including Georges St. Pierre. What makes this even more remarkable is Silva's age; Silva is doing this at age 36, when MMA is proving to be a youngman's sport.
  
  There is in question in my mind that we are witnessing something special - the greatest MMA fighter still performing at an elite level. Our only job as a fan is to appreciate what we are seeing.


• With all those platitudes towards Silva stated, Yushin Okami had a terrible fight plan. As mentioned in my preview, Okami's only chance was to take down Silva and dominate him on the ground, like Chael Sonnen. Okami failed on both parts - he did not get Silva to the ground, and more importantly, Okami attempted to pick his spot to take Silva down. After Okami failed once, he never went back to a takedown attempt.
  
  The beauty of Anderson silva's fighting style is how much Silva depends on reacting to his opponent. The first round of the fight was Silva timing Okami's punches, along wiht his takedown attempts. Silva managed to avoid any hard punches and at the end of the round Silva struck hard. OTOH, Okami looked for his spot - a strategy that has proven to be futile against Silva. Sonnen gave us the game plan to beat Silva - commit yourself ot taking him down, and just doing it. Do not look for the perfect opening; this just gives Silva more of an opportunity to find the gap in your defenses and then counter attack. So immediately you need to press the action against Silva, and commit to take him down early.
  
  Okami did none of this, and looked out of his league in the second round. For Silva's part, you could watch him timing Okami's blows and then attacking. Okami failed to live up to his part, and looked completely outclassed once the second round came along.
  
  The next middleweight contender looks to be either Brian Stann or Chael Sonnen. Whomever ends up being the top contender should look at this fight for an idea as to what not to do as a strategy.


• With 10 out of 11 Brazilian fighters winning, it seems like there is a hometown advantage for Brazilian fighters. You could tell that Antonio Rodrigio Nogueiro and Shogun Rua were excited to be fighting in their home country. And while Forrest Griffin might have had a reason to be distracted (his wife went into labour during the PPV), both he and Brendan Schaub did not deliver in their opportunity to provide a memorable result in a high profile fight.
  
  In Toronto, there was a similiar sentiment to get as many Canadians on the card in hopes they would dominate. After a 6-4 record though, the same could not be said. Given the history of MMA in Brazil, there was probably more pressure on the Brazilian figthers to perform, which they did in spades.
  
  There's a lot of thoughts that added pressure of a hometown fight can hurt the fighters; in the case of the Brazilian fighters, they made sure to rise to the occasion and honour the history of their ancestors.


• The question that always exists after a card is "What's next?" Specifically, what is next for each of the winners on the card?
  
  For Anderson Silva, the next fight seems obvious - the winner of Brian Stann/Chael Sonnen is likely to get the next title fight. Vitor Belfort is lurking in the wings, but is still to close to his loss to Anderson Silva to be considered a contender.
  
  Shogun Rua is waiting on the Rampage/Jones fight in September. If Jones wins, Rua is in a holding patter. He would need another win to even be considered a slight threat to Jones. But if Rampage wins, Rua could be considered for a title shot if Rashad Evans is gets hurt. A next fight might be with Rich Franklin.
  
  For Rodrigio Nogueira, he could be the next opponent for Brock Lesnar. Lesnar is coming off of a long layoff after losing to Cain Velasquez, and could use a fight before being put into a title match. For Big Nog, a victory over Lesnar could make him a threat to Velasquez; at a minimum it would make Big Nog seem like he is back, and would provide another title match for Velasquez.
  
  In all, the short term looks interesting for the UFC. OTOH, the long term looks even more muddled, and is really depending on having some fighters up their game significantly, or else there will be a set hierarchy for all the divisions.

***
My predictions ended up being 9-3, putting my record for the year at 70-38-2. My theoretical wagers ended up winning my $4, putting my winnings for the year at $73.80.

UFC 134 Thoughts

A couple of articles going into UFC 134:

Some would argue that the origins of MMA are in Brazil. Dave Meltzer has the history of Vale Tudo and the Gracie family in this article.

For a fascinating look at the UFC's first card that they ran in Brazil, see this Todd Martin article.

The card in Brazil has the chance to be historic. Dave Meltzer makes the argument that a victory by Anderson Silva could make him the greatest of all time.
***
Thus far, I'm 61-35-2 for the year for my predictions (including an 8-3 record for UFC 133) and I have a profit of $69.80 (after losing $10 on UFC 133). My predictions for UFC 134:

Preliminaries:

Yves Jabouin over Ian Loveland

Wager: $10 on Jabouin at 2.4 odds to win $24

Yuri Alcantara over Felipe Arantes
Erick Silva over Luis Ramos
Raphael Assuncao over Johnny Eduardo
Paulo Thiago over David Mitchell

Spike Prelims:

Rousimar Palhares over Dan Miller
Thiago Tavares over Spencer Fisher

Main Card:

Luiz Cane over Sanislav Nedkov
Edson Barboza over Ross Pierson

Brendan Schaub over Antonio Rodrigio Nogueira

Schaub is on a hot streak, and has looked great recently, while Big Nog was last seen getting destroyed by Cain Velasquez. Maybe Nog's 18 month layoff has helped him recover from the effects of fighting for a long period of time. But Schaub has shown a remarkable improvement over his last few fights, and his youth will carry him to an easy victory over Nogueira.

Forrest Griffin over Mauricio Shogun Rua

This is by far the most difficult fight to pick on the main card. Griffin has a win over Rua, but that was well before Rua's comeback run of the past year or two. Rua has looked better over the last couple of years, though he did look poor against Jon Jones; Griffin had a great fight with Rich Franklin in February, but had a 14 month layoff after two poor performances.

I am going with Griffin here on the basis of recent performance over top fighters. But I would not be surprised with a Rua victory.

Wager: $10 on Griffin at 2.7 odds to win $27

Anderson Silva over Yushin Okami

Okami knows the way to beat Silva; Chael Sonnen has demonstrated it. Use wrestling to take Silva down, and have no hesitation in doing this. Take the attack to Silva; do not look for your spot. The question is whether Okami can do this. I have serious doubts that he can, as Okami tends to look for his spot and attack from there. If he does that, Silva will knock his head off.

(As a side note, I did make a wager on Yushin Okami to win this fight; the odds that Okami is at - 4.60 on Party Bets, for example - are way too high. I didn't put any significant sum of cash on it, but I am putting it out there to show this is closer than people think.)

Theoretical Wagers:

$10 on Jabouin at 2.4 odds to win $24
$10 on Griffin at 2.7 odds to win $27

Quick UFC 133 Predictions

Rafael Natal over Paul Bradley
Mike Brown over Nam Phan
Johny Hendricks over Mike Pierce
Nick Pace over Ivan Menjivar
Chad Mendes over Rani Yahya
Alexander Gustavsson over Matt Hammill
Rory MacDonald over Mike Pyle
Constantinos Philippou over Jorge Rivera
Brian Ebersole over Dennis Hallman
Yoshihiro Akiyama over Vitor Belfort

I think Akiyama's ground game will beat Belfort.

Tito Ortiz over Rashad Evans

Much like last time, this is a hunch pick more than anything else. There are reasons to pick Ortiz: Evans has bulked up for this fight, expecting to face Phil Davis. While the bulk will help, Evans is prone to gassing in the first place, so adding weight on won't help this. As well, Evans is working with a new camp, which is much more lackadasical than the Greg Jackson camp he came from. Ultimately, I can see a replay of their previous fight, only without the point reduction.

Theoretical Wagers:
$10 on Akiyama at 3.5 odds to win $35
$10 on Ortiz at 3.75 odds to win $37.50
$20 on Gustavsson at 1.50 odds to win $30

UFC 132 Thoughts

One of the biggest themes going through today's card was redemption. Each of the three main fights had a fighter attempting to redeem themselves from a previous event in their career. In each case, the fighter achived redemption.

Going into his fight, Tito Ortiz had two options - win his fight, or be let go from the UFC. Given that he had not won a fight since 2006 and his most recent fights saw him look rather pedestrian (not too mention the various injuries/excuses Ortiz had offered to explain his poor performances,) the general consensus was that Ortiz would be looking for a new group to fight in after UFC 132 had finished.

Funny thing about that though. Ortiz ended up dropping Bader with a punch early in the first round, then securing a guillotine choke to record a victory. Not only was that Ortiz's first victory in 5 years, it was the first time in 10 years Ortiz had stopped a fighter who was not named Ken Shamrock. In mere minutes, Ortiz had managed to turn the fans into rabid fans supporting him, and set himself up for a greater run in the UFC.

Chris Leben was on top of the world on July 3rd, 2010. He had just won two fights in 2 weeks - an accomplishment that has very little precedence in modern MMA competitions. He was considered to be within a fight or two of a title shot in he middleweight division. But that was not to be. In October, Leben was arrested for suspicion of driving under the influence. Two months later, he faced Brian Stann and was destroyed by the new up and comer. Leben's future prospects as an elite MMA fighter were in question.

Leben was paired with Wanderlei Silva for this card, and Leben was thrilled to be facing his idol. He took full advantage of his high profile opponent, and in 27 seconds, cemented himself as being in the upper tier of middleweight fighters. Leben weathered a brief flurry from Silva, then dropped him with multiple uppercuts before finishing with the fight on the ground with some frightening ground and pound. Leben was back, and accepted by the community as a great fighter.

Dominick Cruz has an unusual style, one that has helped him dominate the Bantamweight division as its champion. However, Cruz had one blemish on his record - a loss to Urijah Faber in 2007. It hung over his head for a long while, and only at UFC 132 did he have an opportunity to change this.

During the fight, Cruz used his manic unorthodox style to keep Faber off balance and prevent Faber from having any sustained success in attacking. As well, Cruz was able to attack and get some solid strikes in, along with some takedowns. This gave Cruz the victory and avenged his one loss in his career. He was redeemed in his eyes.

Sports, and specifically fighting sports, produce many opportunities for redemption stories to be told, so long as the fighter involved holds their part of the bargain. Tonight, we had three fighters tell their stories of redemption to us, and remind us how powerful a redemption story could be.
***
My predictions were 9-2, putting me at 53-32-2 for the year. I won four wagers at a profit of $63, making my profit for the year $79.80.

UFC 132 Preview and Predictions

Some thoughts on this intersting PPV...

UFC 132 is going to be quite the litmus test. It originally was scheduled to be Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber in the main event, with BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch in the semi-main event. With Fitch pulling out due to injury, it left Faber and Cruz as the mian event, with no semi-main to help with the buy rate.

Faber drew a remarkable buyrate in the WEC with the relative lack of promotion given to the fight, but it was still only 175,000 PPV buys. Now he is being pegged to draw on PPV, but with the UFC name behind it fully. It will be a test to see how well the former WEC division draws on PPV, as well as how effective the UFC marketing machine truly is. They have an advantage in having Faber fight, easily the most recognizable and marketable face of the former WEC fights. But question remains as to how interested people are in these divisions.

There is a hint as to how this fight will do - on January 1st Frankie Edgar and Grey Maynard fought and the buyrate was only 270,000 buys. Maynard and Edgar were theoretically more well known than Faber and Cruz, however they were also hampered by fighting on New Year's Day, traditionally a day when people watch college football. This fight is on Independence Day weekend which has traditionally been a good weekend for UFC ppvs.

I'd expect this to do about 325,000 buys. For the UFC, I do hope it has more. These divisions need more exposure and success as they are the most exciting divisions for fights.

Predictions:

Preliminary card:
Jeff Hougland over Donny Walker
Anthony Njokuani over Andre Winner
Brad Tavares over Aaron Simpson
Brian Bowles over Takeya Mizugaki

Preliminary fights on Spike:
George Soitoropolous over Rafael dos Anjos

This will be an interesting fight to see the strategy that is employed by both fighters. Both are more skilled at submission fighting than at striking, so it might be beneficial for one to stay standing. The question is which of the two feels that their striking is superior to the other. My feeling is that Soitoropolous is the one who will be more confident in his striking skills, and he will use that to his advantage.

Melvin Guillard over Shane Roller

The biggest question mark in this fight is which Guillard will show up: the one that we saw who destroyed Evan Dunham and seemed likely to finally live up to his immense potential, or the one who plays it safe and just tries to grind out his win. I hope it is the first, though I don't believe it will matter which one shows up - Guillard is going to win.

Main card on the PPV:
Dennis Siver over Matt Wiman

A great opener between two fighters who are at about the same level. In one sense this is an important fight for both for future slotting, but in another, it really does not matter that much in the grand scheme of things. The winner is going to move up a bit, but is still at least 2 if not 3 title shots away from getting their title shot (unless they knock off another contender ahead of them.) I favour Siver in this fight, but it is an even fight which could truly go either way.

Carlos Condit over Dong Hyun Kim

Another even fight, but with more title implications than the previous fight. Condit could very well be one fight away from getting a title shot (which is more a reflection of the depth in the welterweight division than anything else.) Kim is likely a bit further away than Condit from getting a title shot, but with a great performance could very well vault himself to contendership. This will be a tough fight for both. Kim's fighting style is a bit unorthodox and could befuddle Condit, but I'm betting Condit will end up winning.

Tito Ortiz over Ryan Bader

In all honesty, this is hunch pick. Bader was humiliated by Jon Jones in February, but that's Jon Jones. I'm more concerned with Bader's performance against Little Nog in September. Bader controlled him with wrestling, but otherwise showed very little against an opponent who was on the back end of his career. Ortiz is a more accomplished wrestler, and hasn't looked terrible in his fights since his return. I can easily see him earning a decision over Bader. The safe pick is definitely Bader; I'm going the other way.

Chris Leben over Wanderlei Silva

Silva is returning to the octagon after a 16 month layoff from his previous fight. It's against Chris Leben, who was last seen getting destroyed by Brian Stann. If this isn't an exciting, standing slugfest then something has gone horrifically wrong and you should jump to Dana White's twitter feed for the spewing of explicatives. I'm going with the fighter who has fought in the past year, even if he probably hasn't recovered from his knockout yet.

Dominick Cruz over Urijah Faber

Let me make something clear - I want to see Faber win. I think he's a great ambassador for the sport, and quite honestly I think he's a more entertaining fighter than "The Decisionator". However, Cruz is the better fighter, and he's going to win this fight. The one advantage Faber has in this fight is his wrestling, but Cruz is a strong defender of takedowns as well. I believe Cruz will neutralize Faber's wrestling and win the striking battle.

Theortical Wagers:
(As always, these odds come from our friends at PartyBets)

$20 on Njokuani at 1.65 odds to win $33
$10 on Tavares at 2.65 odds to win $28.50
$10 on Ortiz at 4.40 odds to win $44
$10 on Leben at 2.30 odds to win $23
$20 on Cruz at 1.65 odds to win $33

UFC 131 Thoughts

UFC 131 ended up producing the desired winners in most matches.(*) More importantly, those winners gave performances that made the winners look like they are worthy of the next match they will receive.

Junior dos Santos absolutely mauled Shane Carwin in the main event. The match had already been declared for the next title shot, but with Cain Velasquez looking so dominant in all of his fights it was going to take a dominant performance to make people believe that Cain was in any sort of danger. dos Santos delivered this. The first round was a mirror of Carwin's last fight, only with Carwin receiving the benefit of the doubt from the referee. Make no mistake, Carwin was being pummelled unmercifully and could have seen the ref stop the fight. And if the round were 30 seconds longer, this likely would have happened. But with only 10 seconds remaining, and it being obvious that Herb Dean was not going to stop the fight, dos Santos relented on his attack, choosing to reserve his energy. Not that it mattered; Carwin's face told the story. dos Santos eventually ended up with a decision victory, but most everybody will remember it as a dominant performance, and one that made dos Santos look like a threat to Velasquez's title.

Similarly, Kenny Florian's defeat of Diego Nunes set Florian up for a future title featherweight title shot. This was also pre-ordained; if Florian was going to be able to survive his cut to 145 pounds, he would be lined up to face the winner of Jose Aldo Jr. and Chad Mendes. Florian did not look dominant; however he did look as though his skills did not suffer from fighting at a lower weight class. And that should be more than enough to sell a PPV.

Combine this with Donald Cerrone's victory and you have three matches that set up future contenders well.

(*): This is unlike UFC 130, where the right people won, but did not look impressive in winning.
***
More importanly for the UFC, this show was an entertaining one. After the end of UFC 129, and the whole of UFC 130, this was a welcome event.

It's said often that bad events will be forgiven by fans becasue the event is real. The fans understand that not all fights will be exciting, but so long as some are exciting to watch with a definitive end. This is true, but if you end up with enough boring fights/cards in a row, you will reach a tipping point where business will go down and (heaven forbid) the fad will pass. UFC 131 headed this off, but it is a real danger for UFC to consider.

The real issue that UFC has to fight against is the reality that this is a real sport. Fighters make money by winning, not being spectacular. As much as they want to score the memorable knockout, they want to win to keep their job even more. And UFC can not do much more than they have to incentivize their fighters to produce spectacular finishes - large bonuses (in many cases more than the purse for winning a fight) and more prominent positions on fight cards can only go so far. In the end fighters need to make the decision as to whether they are going to go for a bonus, or if they desire to win at all costs. It's a tradeoff that is difficult to decide.
***
My predictions were 4-3, putting me at 44-30-2 for the year. No wagers were made, so I am still at a net profit of $18.60 for the year.

UFC 131 Predictions

Not including the facebook fights, as I saw the results for them.

Jesse Bongfeldt over Chris Weidman
Yves Edwards over Sam Stout
Donald Cerrone over Vagner Rocha
Jon Olav Einemo over Dave Herman
Mark Munoz over Damien Maia
Kenny Florian over Diego Nunes
Junior dos Santos over Shane Carwin

Well, I failed again

Yesterday I did not post, meaning that Manic May ended right again on the Sunday of Memorial Day weekend. I did it intentionally, choosing to sleep/relax/hang out with friends over posting. I'll get into this more in the post-mortem on Wednesday, but it was definitely the right choice.

I'll have a UFC 130 summary up either later today or tomorrow But for those who can't wait, the results of my predictions...

Overall, my predictions were 6-4 (starting out 6-0, then going 0-4), putting me at 40-26-2 for the year. I made $10.40 on my wagers, putting me at a net profit of $18.30.

UFC 130 Predictions

Some quick predictions and theoretical wagers...

Renan Barao over Cole Escovedo
Michael McDonald over Chris Cariaso

Bet: $20 on McDonald at 1.22 odds to get back $24.40

Gleison Tibau over Rafaello Oliveira
Tim Boetsch over Kendall Grove

Bet: $20 on Boetsch at 2.15 odds to get back $43

Demetrious Johnson over Miguel Torres

Bet: $20 on Johnson at 2.15 odds to get back $43

Brian Stann over Jorge Santiago
Thiago Alves over Rick Story
Stefan Struve over Travis Browne

Bet: $20 on Struve at 2.20 odds to get back $44

Roy Nelson over Frank Mir
Matt Hamill over Rampage Jackson

Going out on a limb for this one, but if Rampage isn't taking Hamill seriously, Rampage will lose.

Bet: $20 on Hamill at 3.40 odds to get back $68

UFC 129 Thoughts

One of the great cliches in the sports world is the discussion of how someone has the "heart of a champion". In the two title matches last night at UFC 129, we saw examples of this cliche coming true, as well as an example of someone demonstrating the opposite.

Jose Aldo came into his fight with Mark Hominick looking poorly. The day before, Aldo had to leave a special "seven champions" Q&A because he was lightheaded. Many people noted how bad Aldo looked. And when we entered the second round of the actual fight, Aldo was breathing through his mouth, which is a sign that Aldo was excessively tired. Inspite of this though, Aldo powered through and dominated the third and fourth rounds, which gave him the scoring edge going into the final round.

Mark Hominick had a great story going into his fight. He was fighting within an hour of his hometown for the world featherweight title. His wife was pregnant and due to deliver a daughter at any time. It was set up to be a great story that everybody would love. But during the fight, Aldo was definitely winning. In the third round, Aldo opened a cut under Hominick's eye, which also caused swelling. And in the fourth, Aldo landed a vicious short elbow which caused a large hemotoma to form on Hominick's head. The hemotoma was so large that the referee, John McCarthy, stopped the fight so a doctor could check Hominick and determine whether he could continue. This was then repeated after the end of the fourth round. Things did not look good for Hominick.

Hominick was not to be deterred though. He came out in the fifth round and dominated Aldo, rocking Aldo with ground strikes and bringing the crowd to its feet. It was an incredible final round - Hominick rising to meet the enduring performance of Aldo and for five minutes giving the crowd an ending they could be satisfied with. It was an ending which harkened back to the ending of the original Rocky movie, with the only difference being that Hominick apologized to his wife for possibly causing her to go into labour.

Georges St. Pierre is considered to be (with due respect to Anderson Silva) the pre-eminant fighter in all of MMA. The allure of GSP is that you are getting to watch a great fighter demonstrate elite skills with an elite game plan in the octagon. On this night though, the Georges St. Pierre that we saw was a mortal one.

In the second round of his fight, Jake Shields hit St. Pierre with a jab that struck St. Pierre in the eye. St. Pierre's vision went blurry, and by the end of the third round St. Pierre was panicked about his vision out of that eye. He had two rounds left to face Jake Shields, who was described by St. Pierre as the "most dangerous fighter" St. Pierre had ever faced. St. Pierre had to still spend two rounds fighting this man and still press the issue, as there was a chance that he was only winning two of the three rounds on the scorecards.

Cue Round four. St. Pierre landed a head kick that knocked Shields down and all but cemented the victory on the score card for GSP. The only thing left for him to do was to ensure that Shields never put him in a dangerous position. Luckily for him, Jake Shields was willing to play along and never threaten GSP.

Shields' performance was frustrating. As I mentioned before, GSP looked mortal. He was panicked. And yet, Jake Shields refused to put an extra effort into his fight. He fought timidly and without passion. Shields decided not to take any chances in the fight, seemingly content to let his opportunity to pass without even trying to win. When held to the standards the other three fighter set, it was an embarassing effort that indicated that Shields should not be considered among the elite fighters in MMA.
***
Going into last night's fight, Dana White expressed doubt that this would be Randy Couture's last fight. Unfortunately, Lyoto Machida made sure to guarantee it to be Couture's last fight.

In the fight, Randy looked slow, and frankly, old. As much as he felt that he knew how to stop Machida, it was clear that Randy no longer had the physical skills to implement that strategy. The spectacular knockout using a leaping front kick only emphasized this.

It's always difficult when an all time legend decides to retire. It's normally under two circumstances: Either the legend is going out on top of the game, or the legend is retiring when it is clear that their skills have diminished to a point that they can no longer compete at a level that we will remember them for. In the former, the fan is left feeling robbed, wanting to see more of this special competitor. But the later might be even more sad - your final memory being the athlete failing and looking human. In Randy's case, it is definitely the latter. The one bright side to this is that Randy went out in front of such a large crowd that it did feel a bit like closure; starting as the sport began its rise to prominence, and ending as the sport reached the peak of its ascention, with the largest show it has ever held.

The story's ending would have been better if Randy had won, but it was still a satisfying ending to a legendary career.
***
Overall, my predictions were 7-5, and my bets broke even. On the year, I am 34-22-2, with a net profit of $7.90.

UFC 129 Predictions

Some quick picks for UFC 129:

Yves Jabouin over Pablo Garza
John Makdessi over Kyle Watson
Jason Macdonald over Ryan Jensen
Charlie Valencia over Ivan Menjivar
Daniel Roberts over Claude Patrick

Sean Pierson over Jake Ellenberger

Pierson is the definite underdog here; I am betting on the crowd pushing him to the upset.

Rory Macdonald over Nate Diaz

This will be an interesting fight. Macdonald is a prospect who almost beat Carlos Condit; Diaz is, well, Diaz. It's intriguing and I think Macdonald takes it.

Ben Henderson over Mark Boeck

This will be a really fun fight. Henderson might be best remembered as the guy who Anthony Pettis kicked Matrix style, but Henderson is a former WEC champion, and is really, really good. I like him to win.

Bet: $20 on Ben Henderson at 1.75 odds - win $35

Vladimir Matyushenko over Jason Brilz

I saw Jason Brilz basically end the Little Nog myth, even if he did not get the win. But I think he's going to lose to the Janitor, who is a very good wrestler in his own right.

Randy Couture over Lyoto Machida

Randy Couture has said this will be his last fight. He also chose to fight Lyoto Machida, presumably because he saw something in Machida's game. Add these together with a lacadasical fight from Machida in his last fight, and I think Couture will win.

Bet: $15 on Randy Couture at 3.20 odds - win $48

Jose Aldo Jr. over Mark Hominick

This pick pains me, but quite honestly Jose Aldo Jr. might be a top 3 pound for pound fighter in all of MMA. Not selecting him is shooting yourself in the foot.

Georges St. Pierre over Jake Shields

It's said that Jake Shields poses the biggest threat to GSP because he could be a sumbission threat. If you saw what happened between Shields and a gassed Dan Henderson, you know how ludicrous this sounds. I fully expect GSP to avoid any submission threat by standing and pounding Jake Shields.

UFC 128 Thoughts

In February, I said that tonight's fight with Shogun Rua was a win/win for Jon Jones. Now that Jones has won the Lightheavyweight championship, his win/win opportunities have ended for good.

Going into the fight, Joe Rogan compared this fight with Mike Tyson's first title fight. There were rumours that some in his entourage were comparing him to Muhammed Ali. The pressure was there for Jones to perform, but if he didn't there were still built in excuses. Jones took the fight on short notice, after fighting 6 weeks prior. Jones was sick in the last couple of weeks. It was a large jump in quality of opponent for Jones.

And yet, much like all of his other fights, Jones dominated a slow Shogun Rua, stopping him in round three via TKO. As in all his other fights, Jones never looked like he was in trouble, and was in total control for the entire fight. While Rua didn't play to his own strengths (Rua's avoidance on leg kicks to keep Jones from having an opening to take him down seemed to hamper Rua more than it hindered Jones' strategy), Jones managed to impose his own game plan on the fight. Jones seemed to prove all of his supporters correct. All of this is going to make the next 3 fights of his career the most difficult he will face.

Jones no longer will have any of the excuses. He beat a top level fighter. He will have ample notice to prepare for his next opponent. He's going to be expected to live up to the reputation he has built - one of a dominant champion who is still improving. Add to this the extra demands that will be made of him and Jones is going to be facing a much larger psychological hurdle to climb.

Sometimes it's not reaching the apex that's the problem; it's trying to stay balanced on top of it which proves to be most difficult.
***
Jones' victory seemed to justify the comparisons to Mike Tyson. I think it's worth making a different comparison though - one to Lyoto Machida.

Much like Jones, Machida looked unbeatable when he became champion. Machida had a style which was based on counter striking, and had done a great job of making people believe that he had a style which was difficult to beat.

Then Machida faced Shogun Rua, who found the counter to Machida. Rua attacked Machida's legs continually, and wore him down. Machida escaped the first fight with a decision that many found to be questionable, but in the rematch, Rua needed only 3 minutes to defeat Machida and win the title. After that, Machida lost to Rampage Jackson in a fight where neither fighter looked particularly good and now in April, Machida will fight Randy Couture.

When dreaming of the unlimited potential of Jones, it's worth remembering the rise and fall of Machida. It should give you some pause before you get ready to appoint Jon Jones as the best pound for pound fighter in the world.
***
The next Lightheavyweight contender was announced after the fight - Rashad Evans. This proved to be another victory for Dana White, a hater of the convention of fighters who refused to fight other members of their camp.

What was interesting was following the storyline that began in the last week or so, with Evans seemingly creating a beef with Jones over a non-issue. Many thought this was the start of a way to try to create more interest in an Evans/Jones fight, in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle similiar to the Evans/Rampage fight from May 2010. They both seemed to back away from that, and when they met each other in the octagon after the fight, Evans was very respectful to Jones and his abilities. You would think that if there was any animosity there, it would come out in some way during that interview.

Also interesting was Greg Jackson's reaction to the possibility of the fight. Jackson said that he would not corner either man if they fought and both remained in his camp. While probably a fair way to go about his business, what makes this intriguing is how fight camp politics is becoming more of a factor in MMA coverage.

Whether it's changing management, leaving camps or other items of the ilk, the "inside baseball" reporting has become a bigger factor in MMA journalism. This could be a sign of a maturing sport, but it also provides a question of whether this coverage is truly desired and needed. As with most of the world, the market will lay bear the answer to that question.
***
In my predictions, I was 8-4 and my theoretical wagers earned me $68.50, for a net of $18.50. On the year I am 27-17-2, with overall wins of $7.90.

UFC 128 Predictions

Quick predictions today...

Nick Catone over Constantinos Philippou
Raphael Assunção over Erik Koch
Joseph Benavidez over Ian Loveland
Gleison Tibau over Kurt Pellegrino
Mike Pyle over Ricardo Almeida
Anthony Njokuani over Edson Barboza
Luiz Cane over Eliot Marshall
Brendan Schaub over Mirko Filipović
Nate Marquardt over Dan Miller
Kamal Shalorus over Jim Miller
Urijah Faber over Eddie Wineland[1]
Maurício Rua (c) over Jon Jones[1]

Theoretical wagers:

Rua at 2.25 odds for $10 - return of $22.50
Pyle at 2.35 odds for $10 - return of $23.50
Schaub at 1.40 odds for $20 - return of $28
Cane at 1.50 odds for $10 - return of $15

UFC 127 Thoughts

A phrase that is repeated often is that you "never leave it in the judges' hands". Tonight, we saw 2 examples of why this is the case.

Nick Ring was given a unanimous decision against Riki Fukuda. I use the term given specifically because I don't understand how anybody could have had Nick Ring winning rounds 2 and 3. However, 3 judges disagreed with me, and we have what we have. In the grand scheme of things, this result will not affect UFC plans at all. If anything, it will enhance them, as Fukuda will be given another shot, while Ring will still remain undefeated. There is potential that both could end up as being players in the middleweight division, which would be win/win for UFC. If neither end up doing anything, it will not be because of this fight. It's a slight step back, but ultimately it will not harm them.

The other controversy was in the main event. Most people would assume that BJ Penn won the first round of the fight, and Jon Fitch won the third. It came down to what the judges felt of the second round. As it turns out, one judge felt that Fitch won the second round, giving Fitch a 29-28 win, while two others gave Penn the second round. But somewhat ironically, both judges gave the third round to Fitch 10-8, meaning that the fight was declared a draw two to two judges scoring the contest 28-28. In a sense, this made Fitch whole, as he was looking to end up losing a fight that most people (including BJ Penn) would have walked away from thinking that he had won. But more importantly, it might have set up a golden opportunity for the UFC.

It is generally assumed that assuming Georges St. Pierre defeats Jake Shields at UFC 129, he will move up to the middleweight division and face Anderson Silva. This would leave the welterweight title in limbo, with no champion and no two contenders set up for it. This fight was set to give one person the next title shot. But now there is no number one contender. If GSP stays at welterweight as champion, or if (heaven forbid) Jake Shields wins the title, the next challenger is undetermined.

But what if the more likely scenario occurs? GSP wins, then moves to the middleweight division. The welterweight title becomes vacant, and you have two fighters who just fought to a draw for the number one contender's spot. They could be slotted into a title shot without much argument, and the winner would be the undisputed champion. You would have a clean succession, and more of an opportunity to build up the next challenger for the title.

Sometimes when seemingly poor things happen, there's an opportunity made available to you. In this case, the future of the welterweight title might have become clear thanks to a questionable decision.
***
Overall, my picks were 7-4-1, and my theoretical wagers gave me $106.60, which is a net win of $16.60. On the year, I'm 19-13-2, with overall losses of $10.60.

UFC 127 Predictions

It's time once again for a UFC event. This is probably the weakest card we have seen since UFC 124, and UFC 124 had a gigantic main event. I'm not expecting too much fo this card, which probably means it will be awesome. Again, our friends at Partybets.com will provide theoretical wagering.

Preliminary card:

Maciej Jewtuszko over Curt Warburton

Jewtuszko had a dominating debut for WEC, destroying Anthony Njokuani by TKO in the first round. Curt Warburton couldn't beat Spencer Fisher. Easy pick.

Chris Tuchscherer over Mark Hunt

Takedown, submission attempt. Rinse and repeat until Hunt taps or 3 rounds are over.

Preliminary card (Facebook):

Zhang Tie Quan over Jason Reinhardt

When Zhang Tie Quan was first brought in to WEC as their first Chinese fighter, they wanted him to fight Jason Reinhardt, only Reinhardt was forced to pull out due to an injury. You would assume that UFC wouldn't pair their big Chinese hope against somebody who they felt had a chance to beat them. Now that it's happening again, I do not see a reason to pick Reinhardt, who is nowhere close to a UFC level fighter.

Anthony Perosh over Tom Blackledge

Preliminary card (Ion TV Card)

Nick Ring over Riki Fukuda

Though this is the most likely to be the fight to have a Silva/Cote ending.

James Te-Huna over Alexander Gustafsson

Call this a hunch, as Te-Huna is the underdog. He's riding a 6 fight win streak, including winning his last fight via TKO while punching using his broken arm.

Wager: $10 for James Te-Huna at 3.4 odds for $34 return.

Ross Pearson over Spencer Fisher

I don't really like Pearson, but Spencer Fisher sucks.

Wager: $20 for Ross Pearson at 1.55 odds for $31 return.

Main card

Kyle Noke over Chris Camozzi

Noke has been pretty dominant in his two fights, while Camozzi has won a decision and had to withdraw from TUF due to damage received in his entry fight to the show.

Wager: $20 on Kyle Noke at 1.48 odds for $29.60 return.

Chris Lytle over Brian Ebersole

Ebersole is a replacement for Carlos Condit, and I don't think he's had enough time to properly prepare.

George Sotiropoulos over Dennis Siver

I'm staying away from betting on this - I think Sotiropoulous is going to win, but the odds on him (1.25) are way too low. Siver isn't getting enough credit for being a good fighter, and I think this is going to be a lot closer than the fans are assuming.

Michael Bisping over Jorge Rivera

I give Jorge Rivera credit for trying to create interest via videos like this:


Unfortunately for Rivera, he's still not as good as Bisping, and Bisping will defeat him.

Wager: $20 on Michael Bisping at 1.3 odds for $26 return

B.J. Penn over Jon Fitch

BJ Penn has sucked me in again. His performance against a pretty good wrestler in Matt Hughes has me thinking that hecan actually solve the Jon Fitch problem. (The problem being that Fitch does nothing but take people down and then grind them for 3 rounds - not very exciting.) Add in that Fitch has claimed to figure out that he needs to finish fights to get title shots, plus Fitch has changed his diet to be vegetarian and this is not going to be that heavy, and he might change his style to BJ's benefit.

Wager: $20 on B.J. Penn at 2.5 odds for a $50 return

Bet Summary:

Penn $20 to get $50
Bisping $20 to get $26
Noke $20 to get $29.60
Pearson $20 to get $31
Te-Huna $10 to get $34

UFC 126 Thoughts

In April, I asked the question What do you do about a problem like Anderson? In the end, I wasn't sure how exactly to force Silva to stop with the antics and actually fight. Based on UFC 126, Joe Silva and company seem to have determined how to do this.

Silva came out and defeated Vitor Belfort in the first round of their fight. No dancing, no waiting for a counterstrike. Once the fight opened up a bit, Silva was willing to fight toe to toe with Belfort, and used a straight front kick to Belfort's jaw to win. This was the most impressive Silva looked since the Forrest Griffin fight in 2009. It was also a departure from the Silva seen in the Damien Maia and Thales Leites defenses. This Silva wanted to finish the fight.

In part, this can traced to Silva's desire to best a person he felt was a turncoat. Rumour had it that Silva was angry that Belfort had taken a title shot against a fellow camp member. As well, Belfort was still more beloved in Brazil than the currently more successful Silva. To defeat Belfort was to gain the respect of his home country, and to defeat a defector.

As well, Silva had something to prove. His fight with Chael Sonnen chipped away at his unbeatable aura. Sonnen was 2 minutes away from getting a decision victory on Silva, having dominated him for 4 1/2 rounds. Silva got a remarkable triangle victory for the win, but all of the sudden there was doubt about him. Was he the best pound for pound fighter in the world, or was Georges St. Pierre now the best fighter? He needed to not just win his next fight, he needed to win it impressively. He needed a stoppage.

Credit to Joe Silva for putting these fights together, and to Dana White to begin talking about a possible Georges St. Pierre/Anderson Silva superfight, to give Silva a carrot to drive towards. We've seen what happens when you challenge Silva; the question now is what will happen if Silva runs out of challenges?

***

Every once in a while, UFC can pull of a shocker of an announcement. Somehow yesterday they made one of the most surprising announcements of their history.

Jon Jones had just completed a definitive victory over Ryan Bader, which was surprising for the domination that Jones showed. Then Joe Rogan showed up into the ring and gave some shocking news. Rashad Evans had suffered a knee injury, and a new opponent was needed for Lightheavyweight champion Shogun Rua. Rogen then asked Jones if he was willing to take the fight with 6 weeks of preparation time. Naturally, Jones said yes.

Really, Jones had no reason to say no. Taking a fight against an elite fighter with 6 weeks of preparation and recovery time from a previous fight is a no lose situation for him. If he wins, then obviously he's a world champion. If he loses, then he has a built in excuse that he didn't have enough time to prepare. With that said, it could be too early for Jones to actually become champion. Though he's looked strong to date, he hasn't faced any elite fighters. And he's in the process of still learning. He's very much a raw talent that is still forming into a fighter.

Even still, the UFC was correct to give him a title shot. They have hit on something that has the imagination of most of their fans, and you should always strike when the iron is hot.

***

(Added 10:51 pm) My picks for UFC 126 were 6-5, with my betting getting me 69.80, or a loss of $0.20. For the year, I'm 12-9-1, while losing $27.20 on my theoretical wagers (this assumes that PartyBets considers a draw to be a lost wager.)

UFC 126 Predictions

Once again, it's time my UFC 126 Predictions. Less analysis here, though with our friends at PartyBets.com I will provide a few theoretical wagers.

Preliminary card

Mike Pierce defeats Kenny Robertson
Ricardo Romero defeats Kyle Kingsbury

(Note: this is based solely on Kingsbury completely changing his look to be more like a bodybuilder, and his working with Victor Conte, famous for his involvement in BALCO.)

Gabe Ruediger defeats Paul Taylor

(I'm also taking Ruediger at 2.50 for $10 - a return of $25.)

Preliminary card (Facebook Stream)

Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto defeats Demetrious Johnson

Likely not my best choice as Demetrious is better than Kid Yamamoto at this point in both of their careers, but I have a hunce that Yamamoto is going to be very motivated to win this fight.

Preliminary card (Spike TV) (aka WEC on Spike)

Chad Mendes over Michihiro Omigawa

As better as it would be for Omigawa to win here, and as dangerous as Omigawa could be, I don't see Mendes losing.

Donald Cerrone over Paul Kelly

Kelly isn't a joke, and honestly he'd be a good fighter to take a flyer on if you wanted to make a wager. But Cerrone has something to prove here - the whispers that WEC fighters only looked good because they had much weaker opponents are held against him. He wins.

Main card

Miguel Torres over Antonio Banuelos

Easiest choice of the card. I'm also putting $20 at a payout of 1.28 to get back $25.60

Jon Jones over Ryan Bader

Let's not overlook Bader here - he is a great wrestler and could easily just take Jones down for the win. But Jones is something special - also a capable wrestler, but also shows an evolution into MMA fighter that could be considered unprecedented. I can't go against him in this fight.

Carlos Eduardo Rocha over Jake Ellenberger

I'm throwing $10 on this with a 3.20 payout to get $32 back. Ellenberger is a decent wrestler but he's going to have to stand here - Rocha is a great submission fighter. I see Rocha managing to get him to the ground and getting Ellenberger trapped and tapping out.

Forrest Griffin over Rich Franklin

An interesting fight - Franklin is the favourite, and deservedly so. But Griffin hasn't fought in 13 months, and seems to be motivated once again. I'm probably showing too much faith in Forrest, but at the same time, Franklin did not look good against Liddell before catching him with the one punch (heck, the doctor would have stopped the fight after the first round due to Franklin's broken arm.) So I'm going with Griffin, and putting $20 on him with a 2.2 payout to get back $44.

Vitor Belfort over Anderson Silva (c)

This is an insane pick. I admit it, and it's probably not going to be a winner. But Belfort's an elite striker, something Silva actually hasn't fought in his UFC run. So Belfort has a bit more of a puncher's chance than normal. As well, Silva did get caught by Chael Sonnen in his last fight; whether that was just because Silva didn't expect Sonnen to throw a punch or something else is the unanswered question.

(Also, something has to mess up Dana White's dream of getting GSP and Silva to fight in 2011. I just don't see it being GSP losing.)

I'm also throwing $10 on Belfort at a 2.85 payout so I would get $28.50 back if it comes through.

Bet summary:

Belfort $10 to get $28.50
Griffin $20 to get $44
Rocha $10 to get $32
Torres $20 to get $25.80
Ruediger $10 to get $25

The high and low of UFC 125

Going into UFC 125, there were two big strikes against it being a highly purchased PPV: It was held on New Year's Day, traditionally a day when people recover from partying on the night before; and it had no stars of note to draw in a larger than normal PPV crowd. One would expect that UFC Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar would be that PPV draw, especially after defeating BJ Penn twice. However, his method of victory (decision by using technique to win each round) did not end up making him an elite fighter in the eyes of the casual MMA fan. Instead it made him champion, but one that might not be the best in his division or an exciting fighter.

Tonight, Frankie Edgar gave a performance in non-victory that elevated him to being a fighter that people will pay to see. In a scene reminiscent of the Brock Lesnar/Shane Carwin fight from UFC 116, Edgar survived a first round beating from Gray Maynard, and came back to fight a great fight (including a dominant second round performance) and end up with a well earned draw. Fans were amazed by Edgar's fighting spirit, his ability to rise to the occasion with his back against the wall. And in contrast to Lesnar, Edgar's opponent did not run out of gas after the first round. Maynard stood his ground and was willing to press the action. He was just unable to break Edgar's will and ended up not winning the title.

The decision leaves Joe Silva and Dana White in an awkward position. Surely an Edgar/Maynard rematch would do great business, and is likely needed to resolve who is the better fighter. However, Anthony Pettis has been promised the next title shot to unify the WEC and UFC Lightweight titles. An Edgar/Pettis match might catch lightning with Pettis' highlight reel kick helping to hype a fight, but that leaves Maynard on the sidelines waiting for the winner and could kill any momentum an Edgar/Maynard rematch would have. And if Pettis wins? So it's no surprise that we are going to get an Edgar/Maynard rematch. It will be interesting to see what they will do with Pettis in the meantime.

(Ironically, this might be one time when an injury to the champion would help UFC. Edgar being on the shelf for any period of time would allow UFC to make a Maynard/Pettis fight for an interim title (which is essentially what the WEC Lightweight title is), and would help build up an eventual Edgar title defense against the winner.)

In any event, Frankie Edgar had a star making performance tonight. We will see if he can follow it up by finally defeating Gray Maynard.
*****
Tonight was likely the end of the road for 3 familiar faces. Phil Baroni, Marcus Davis and Brandon Vera all suffered humiliating defeats and are likely to be cut from their UFC contracts. while Baroni and Davis took their knockouts as the disappointments they are, Vera for whatever reason seemed unconcerned about his defeat. That confuses me.

Baroni and Davis could at least attempt to rationalize their losses away; they got caught by a great punch which caused their defeat. Avoid the punch and the fight could have gone differently. Vera, OTOH, was so utterly dominated by Thiago Silva that Silva resorted to slapping and spanking him while he had Vera's back in the third round. vera exited the third round with one the worst broken noses I have ever seen. And yet, instead of looking slightly disappointed at how badly he performed in his fight, Vera took pleasure in mugging for the camera, showing off his broken nose to amuse the crowd. while the crowd enjoyed it, Vera still came across as a man who had been handily defeated, someone who did not belong in a UFC Octagon. If you are unconcerned about your performance in what was a one-sided fight where you showed no will to even fight when you knew you had to, why should I care about you?

Vera would do well to go back to the other organizations and dedicate himself to improving. While he's at it, he should drop any talk about being lightheavyweight and heavyweight champion at the same time; he was dominated by a fighter who's essentially a heavyweight in Silva so why would that change with actual heavyweights?