UFC 135 Predictions

Preliminary bouts (Facebook):

Ricardo Romero over James Te-Huna

Wager: $10 on Ricardo Romero at 2.35 odds to win $27

Takeya Mizugaki over Cole Escovedo
Junior Assuncao over Eddie Yagin

Wager: $10 on Junior Assuncao at 2.20 odds to win $22

Preliminary bouts (Spike):

Tim Boetch over Nick Ring

Aaron Riley over Tony Ferguson

Call this a hunch pick - Ferguson probably should win, but Riley is a difficult and unique opponent.

Main card:

Nate Diaz over Takanori Gomi
Travis Browne over Rob Broughton

Mark Hunt over Ben Rothwell

This is officially the dumbest prediction I have ever made. But Ryan Fredrick explains the logic behind the pick well. Basically, if you take Hunt down, you will win. However, Rothwell is essentially the heavyweight version of Yoshihiro Akiyama. Rothwell refuses to use his greatest strength - his wresting - to win. So Hunt will probably end up with another knockout victory.

As I said, the dumbest prediction I have ever made.

Wager: $10 on Mark Hunt to win at 3.75 odds to return $37.50

Josh Koscheck over Matt Hughes

Diego Sanchez has to be angry that he had to pull out of this fight. For whatever reason, the Hughes name still holds a lot of value as a name on a resume, even though he is no longer an elite fighter, or even at the level just lower than that. And with the Diaz/GSP fiasco giving Carlos Condit the next title shot, there was an outside chance that Sanchez could have gotten the next title shot.

Instead, Koscheck returns from the hellacious beating GSP laid on him to instead get to face Hughes and prove that he is at that level behind GSP. Koscheck is very low on the list of title contenders thanks to his poor performance against GSP, but should GSP lose the title or the other contenders fail, he is in a spot where he can get the title shot.

I expect Koscheck to win, and to stop the fight by knockout.

Lightheavyweight Title: Jon Jones over Quentin "Rampage" Jackson

Ryan Pike has a great piece on how the Lightheavyweight division is truly the division of death. The title has changed hands in every title fight since Rampage Jackson unified the UFC and Pride LHW titles, save the first Machida/Rua fight where most people felt that the champion lost the fight.

But this time is supposed to be different; Jon Jones legitimately feels like a phenom. How somebody is going to beat him is really unknown, mostly because Jones has looked like a dominant fighter in every fight we have seen him in. What gets lost in this is that Jones has only fought one top 10 fighter in Shogun Rua, and really hasn't been tested in any way. We don't know how he will react to being hit by a hard strike, nor do we know how he will react to being put in a position to defend against a submission.

Rampage Jackson is not going to test Jones' submission defenses, but he can test Jones' ability to take a shot. I think he will throw some bombs early on, but Jones will weather it and wait for Jackson to tire before taking over the fight. I don't know if Jones will finish the fight, but he will win the fight.

UFC 134 Thoughts

A couple of articles going into UFC 134:

Some would argue that the origins of MMA are in Brazil. Dave Meltzer has the history of Vale Tudo and the Gracie family in this article.

For a fascinating look at the UFC's first card that they ran in Brazil, see this Todd Martin article.

The card in Brazil has the chance to be historic. Dave Meltzer makes the argument that a victory by Anderson Silva could make him the greatest of all time.
***
Thus far, I'm 61-35-2 for the year for my predictions (including an 8-3 record for UFC 133) and I have a profit of $69.80 (after losing $10 on UFC 133). My predictions for UFC 134:

Preliminaries:

Yves Jabouin over Ian Loveland

Wager: $10 on Jabouin at 2.4 odds to win $24

Yuri Alcantara over Felipe Arantes
Erick Silva over Luis Ramos
Raphael Assuncao over Johnny Eduardo
Paulo Thiago over David Mitchell

Spike Prelims:

Rousimar Palhares over Dan Miller
Thiago Tavares over Spencer Fisher

Main Card:

Luiz Cane over Sanislav Nedkov
Edson Barboza over Ross Pierson

Brendan Schaub over Antonio Rodrigio Nogueira

Schaub is on a hot streak, and has looked great recently, while Big Nog was last seen getting destroyed by Cain Velasquez. Maybe Nog's 18 month layoff has helped him recover from the effects of fighting for a long period of time. But Schaub has shown a remarkable improvement over his last few fights, and his youth will carry him to an easy victory over Nogueira.

Forrest Griffin over Mauricio Shogun Rua

This is by far the most difficult fight to pick on the main card. Griffin has a win over Rua, but that was well before Rua's comeback run of the past year or two. Rua has looked better over the last couple of years, though he did look poor against Jon Jones; Griffin had a great fight with Rich Franklin in February, but had a 14 month layoff after two poor performances.

I am going with Griffin here on the basis of recent performance over top fighters. But I would not be surprised with a Rua victory.

Wager: $10 on Griffin at 2.7 odds to win $27

Anderson Silva over Yushin Okami

Okami knows the way to beat Silva; Chael Sonnen has demonstrated it. Use wrestling to take Silva down, and have no hesitation in doing this. Take the attack to Silva; do not look for your spot. The question is whether Okami can do this. I have serious doubts that he can, as Okami tends to look for his spot and attack from there. If he does that, Silva will knock his head off.

(As a side note, I did make a wager on Yushin Okami to win this fight; the odds that Okami is at - 4.60 on Party Bets, for example - are way too high. I didn't put any significant sum of cash on it, but I am putting it out there to show this is closer than people think.)

Theoretical Wagers:

$10 on Jabouin at 2.4 odds to win $24
$10 on Griffin at 2.7 odds to win $27

Quick UFC 133 Predictions

Rafael Natal over Paul Bradley
Mike Brown over Nam Phan
Johny Hendricks over Mike Pierce
Nick Pace over Ivan Menjivar
Chad Mendes over Rani Yahya
Alexander Gustavsson over Matt Hammill
Rory MacDonald over Mike Pyle
Constantinos Philippou over Jorge Rivera
Brian Ebersole over Dennis Hallman
Yoshihiro Akiyama over Vitor Belfort

I think Akiyama's ground game will beat Belfort.

Tito Ortiz over Rashad Evans

Much like last time, this is a hunch pick more than anything else. There are reasons to pick Ortiz: Evans has bulked up for this fight, expecting to face Phil Davis. While the bulk will help, Evans is prone to gassing in the first place, so adding weight on won't help this. As well, Evans is working with a new camp, which is much more lackadasical than the Greg Jackson camp he came from. Ultimately, I can see a replay of their previous fight, only without the point reduction.

Theoretical Wagers:
$10 on Akiyama at 3.5 odds to win $35
$10 on Ortiz at 3.75 odds to win $37.50
$20 on Gustavsson at 1.50 odds to win $30

UFC 132 Preview and Predictions

Some thoughts on this intersting PPV...

UFC 132 is going to be quite the litmus test. It originally was scheduled to be Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber in the main event, with BJ Penn vs. Jon Fitch in the semi-main event. With Fitch pulling out due to injury, it left Faber and Cruz as the mian event, with no semi-main to help with the buy rate.

Faber drew a remarkable buyrate in the WEC with the relative lack of promotion given to the fight, but it was still only 175,000 PPV buys. Now he is being pegged to draw on PPV, but with the UFC name behind it fully. It will be a test to see how well the former WEC division draws on PPV, as well as how effective the UFC marketing machine truly is. They have an advantage in having Faber fight, easily the most recognizable and marketable face of the former WEC fights. But question remains as to how interested people are in these divisions.

There is a hint as to how this fight will do - on January 1st Frankie Edgar and Grey Maynard fought and the buyrate was only 270,000 buys. Maynard and Edgar were theoretically more well known than Faber and Cruz, however they were also hampered by fighting on New Year's Day, traditionally a day when people watch college football. This fight is on Independence Day weekend which has traditionally been a good weekend for UFC ppvs.

I'd expect this to do about 325,000 buys. For the UFC, I do hope it has more. These divisions need more exposure and success as they are the most exciting divisions for fights.

Predictions:

Preliminary card:
Jeff Hougland over Donny Walker
Anthony Njokuani over Andre Winner
Brad Tavares over Aaron Simpson
Brian Bowles over Takeya Mizugaki

Preliminary fights on Spike:
George Soitoropolous over Rafael dos Anjos

This will be an interesting fight to see the strategy that is employed by both fighters. Both are more skilled at submission fighting than at striking, so it might be beneficial for one to stay standing. The question is which of the two feels that their striking is superior to the other. My feeling is that Soitoropolous is the one who will be more confident in his striking skills, and he will use that to his advantage.

Melvin Guillard over Shane Roller

The biggest question mark in this fight is which Guillard will show up: the one that we saw who destroyed Evan Dunham and seemed likely to finally live up to his immense potential, or the one who plays it safe and just tries to grind out his win. I hope it is the first, though I don't believe it will matter which one shows up - Guillard is going to win.

Main card on the PPV:
Dennis Siver over Matt Wiman

A great opener between two fighters who are at about the same level. In one sense this is an important fight for both for future slotting, but in another, it really does not matter that much in the grand scheme of things. The winner is going to move up a bit, but is still at least 2 if not 3 title shots away from getting their title shot (unless they knock off another contender ahead of them.) I favour Siver in this fight, but it is an even fight which could truly go either way.

Carlos Condit over Dong Hyun Kim

Another even fight, but with more title implications than the previous fight. Condit could very well be one fight away from getting a title shot (which is more a reflection of the depth in the welterweight division than anything else.) Kim is likely a bit further away than Condit from getting a title shot, but with a great performance could very well vault himself to contendership. This will be a tough fight for both. Kim's fighting style is a bit unorthodox and could befuddle Condit, but I'm betting Condit will end up winning.

Tito Ortiz over Ryan Bader

In all honesty, this is hunch pick. Bader was humiliated by Jon Jones in February, but that's Jon Jones. I'm more concerned with Bader's performance against Little Nog in September. Bader controlled him with wrestling, but otherwise showed very little against an opponent who was on the back end of his career. Ortiz is a more accomplished wrestler, and hasn't looked terrible in his fights since his return. I can easily see him earning a decision over Bader. The safe pick is definitely Bader; I'm going the other way.

Chris Leben over Wanderlei Silva

Silva is returning to the octagon after a 16 month layoff from his previous fight. It's against Chris Leben, who was last seen getting destroyed by Brian Stann. If this isn't an exciting, standing slugfest then something has gone horrifically wrong and you should jump to Dana White's twitter feed for the spewing of explicatives. I'm going with the fighter who has fought in the past year, even if he probably hasn't recovered from his knockout yet.

Dominick Cruz over Urijah Faber

Let me make something clear - I want to see Faber win. I think he's a great ambassador for the sport, and quite honestly I think he's a more entertaining fighter than "The Decisionator". However, Cruz is the better fighter, and he's going to win this fight. The one advantage Faber has in this fight is his wrestling, but Cruz is a strong defender of takedowns as well. I believe Cruz will neutralize Faber's wrestling and win the striking battle.

Theortical Wagers:
(As always, these odds come from our friends at PartyBets)

$20 on Njokuani at 1.65 odds to win $33
$10 on Tavares at 2.65 odds to win $28.50
$10 on Ortiz at 4.40 odds to win $44
$10 on Leben at 2.30 odds to win $23
$20 on Cruz at 1.65 odds to win $33

UFC 129 Predictions

Some quick picks for UFC 129:

Yves Jabouin over Pablo Garza
John Makdessi over Kyle Watson
Jason Macdonald over Ryan Jensen
Charlie Valencia over Ivan Menjivar
Daniel Roberts over Claude Patrick

Sean Pierson over Jake Ellenberger

Pierson is the definite underdog here; I am betting on the crowd pushing him to the upset.

Rory Macdonald over Nate Diaz

This will be an interesting fight. Macdonald is a prospect who almost beat Carlos Condit; Diaz is, well, Diaz. It's intriguing and I think Macdonald takes it.

Ben Henderson over Mark Boeck

This will be a really fun fight. Henderson might be best remembered as the guy who Anthony Pettis kicked Matrix style, but Henderson is a former WEC champion, and is really, really good. I like him to win.

Bet: $20 on Ben Henderson at 1.75 odds - win $35

Vladimir Matyushenko over Jason Brilz

I saw Jason Brilz basically end the Little Nog myth, even if he did not get the win. But I think he's going to lose to the Janitor, who is a very good wrestler in his own right.

Randy Couture over Lyoto Machida

Randy Couture has said this will be his last fight. He also chose to fight Lyoto Machida, presumably because he saw something in Machida's game. Add these together with a lacadasical fight from Machida in his last fight, and I think Couture will win.

Bet: $15 on Randy Couture at 3.20 odds - win $48

Jose Aldo Jr. over Mark Hominick

This pick pains me, but quite honestly Jose Aldo Jr. might be a top 3 pound for pound fighter in all of MMA. Not selecting him is shooting yourself in the foot.

Georges St. Pierre over Jake Shields

It's said that Jake Shields poses the biggest threat to GSP because he could be a sumbission threat. If you saw what happened between Shields and a gassed Dan Henderson, you know how ludicrous this sounds. I fully expect GSP to avoid any submission threat by standing and pounding Jake Shields.

UFC 128 Predictions

Quick predictions today...

Nick Catone over Constantinos Philippou
Raphael Assunção over Erik Koch
Joseph Benavidez over Ian Loveland
Gleison Tibau over Kurt Pellegrino
Mike Pyle over Ricardo Almeida
Anthony Njokuani over Edson Barboza
Luiz Cane over Eliot Marshall
Brendan Schaub over Mirko Filipović
Nate Marquardt over Dan Miller
Kamal Shalorus over Jim Miller
Urijah Faber over Eddie Wineland[1]
Maurício Rua (c) over Jon Jones[1]

Theoretical wagers:

Rua at 2.25 odds for $10 - return of $22.50
Pyle at 2.35 odds for $10 - return of $23.50
Schaub at 1.40 odds for $20 - return of $28
Cane at 1.50 odds for $10 - return of $15

UFC 127 Predictions

It's time once again for a UFC event. This is probably the weakest card we have seen since UFC 124, and UFC 124 had a gigantic main event. I'm not expecting too much fo this card, which probably means it will be awesome. Again, our friends at Partybets.com will provide theoretical wagering.

Preliminary card:

Maciej Jewtuszko over Curt Warburton

Jewtuszko had a dominating debut for WEC, destroying Anthony Njokuani by TKO in the first round. Curt Warburton couldn't beat Spencer Fisher. Easy pick.

Chris Tuchscherer over Mark Hunt

Takedown, submission attempt. Rinse and repeat until Hunt taps or 3 rounds are over.

Preliminary card (Facebook):

Zhang Tie Quan over Jason Reinhardt

When Zhang Tie Quan was first brought in to WEC as their first Chinese fighter, they wanted him to fight Jason Reinhardt, only Reinhardt was forced to pull out due to an injury. You would assume that UFC wouldn't pair their big Chinese hope against somebody who they felt had a chance to beat them. Now that it's happening again, I do not see a reason to pick Reinhardt, who is nowhere close to a UFC level fighter.

Anthony Perosh over Tom Blackledge

Preliminary card (Ion TV Card)

Nick Ring over Riki Fukuda

Though this is the most likely to be the fight to have a Silva/Cote ending.

James Te-Huna over Alexander Gustafsson

Call this a hunch, as Te-Huna is the underdog. He's riding a 6 fight win streak, including winning his last fight via TKO while punching using his broken arm.

Wager: $10 for James Te-Huna at 3.4 odds for $34 return.

Ross Pearson over Spencer Fisher

I don't really like Pearson, but Spencer Fisher sucks.

Wager: $20 for Ross Pearson at 1.55 odds for $31 return.

Main card

Kyle Noke over Chris Camozzi

Noke has been pretty dominant in his two fights, while Camozzi has won a decision and had to withdraw from TUF due to damage received in his entry fight to the show.

Wager: $20 on Kyle Noke at 1.48 odds for $29.60 return.

Chris Lytle over Brian Ebersole

Ebersole is a replacement for Carlos Condit, and I don't think he's had enough time to properly prepare.

George Sotiropoulos over Dennis Siver

I'm staying away from betting on this - I think Sotiropoulous is going to win, but the odds on him (1.25) are way too low. Siver isn't getting enough credit for being a good fighter, and I think this is going to be a lot closer than the fans are assuming.

Michael Bisping over Jorge Rivera

I give Jorge Rivera credit for trying to create interest via videos like this:


Unfortunately for Rivera, he's still not as good as Bisping, and Bisping will defeat him.

Wager: $20 on Michael Bisping at 1.3 odds for $26 return

B.J. Penn over Jon Fitch

BJ Penn has sucked me in again. His performance against a pretty good wrestler in Matt Hughes has me thinking that hecan actually solve the Jon Fitch problem. (The problem being that Fitch does nothing but take people down and then grind them for 3 rounds - not very exciting.) Add in that Fitch has claimed to figure out that he needs to finish fights to get title shots, plus Fitch has changed his diet to be vegetarian and this is not going to be that heavy, and he might change his style to BJ's benefit.

Wager: $20 on B.J. Penn at 2.5 odds for a $50 return

Bet Summary:

Penn $20 to get $50
Bisping $20 to get $26
Noke $20 to get $29.60
Pearson $20 to get $31
Te-Huna $10 to get $34

UFC 126 Predictions

Once again, it's time my UFC 126 Predictions. Less analysis here, though with our friends at PartyBets.com I will provide a few theoretical wagers.

Preliminary card

Mike Pierce defeats Kenny Robertson
Ricardo Romero defeats Kyle Kingsbury

(Note: this is based solely on Kingsbury completely changing his look to be more like a bodybuilder, and his working with Victor Conte, famous for his involvement in BALCO.)

Gabe Ruediger defeats Paul Taylor

(I'm also taking Ruediger at 2.50 for $10 - a return of $25.)

Preliminary card (Facebook Stream)

Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto defeats Demetrious Johnson

Likely not my best choice as Demetrious is better than Kid Yamamoto at this point in both of their careers, but I have a hunce that Yamamoto is going to be very motivated to win this fight.

Preliminary card (Spike TV) (aka WEC on Spike)

Chad Mendes over Michihiro Omigawa

As better as it would be for Omigawa to win here, and as dangerous as Omigawa could be, I don't see Mendes losing.

Donald Cerrone over Paul Kelly

Kelly isn't a joke, and honestly he'd be a good fighter to take a flyer on if you wanted to make a wager. But Cerrone has something to prove here - the whispers that WEC fighters only looked good because they had much weaker opponents are held against him. He wins.

Main card

Miguel Torres over Antonio Banuelos

Easiest choice of the card. I'm also putting $20 at a payout of 1.28 to get back $25.60

Jon Jones over Ryan Bader

Let's not overlook Bader here - he is a great wrestler and could easily just take Jones down for the win. But Jones is something special - also a capable wrestler, but also shows an evolution into MMA fighter that could be considered unprecedented. I can't go against him in this fight.

Carlos Eduardo Rocha over Jake Ellenberger

I'm throwing $10 on this with a 3.20 payout to get $32 back. Ellenberger is a decent wrestler but he's going to have to stand here - Rocha is a great submission fighter. I see Rocha managing to get him to the ground and getting Ellenberger trapped and tapping out.

Forrest Griffin over Rich Franklin

An interesting fight - Franklin is the favourite, and deservedly so. But Griffin hasn't fought in 13 months, and seems to be motivated once again. I'm probably showing too much faith in Forrest, but at the same time, Franklin did not look good against Liddell before catching him with the one punch (heck, the doctor would have stopped the fight after the first round due to Franklin's broken arm.) So I'm going with Griffin, and putting $20 on him with a 2.2 payout to get back $44.

Vitor Belfort over Anderson Silva (c)

This is an insane pick. I admit it, and it's probably not going to be a winner. But Belfort's an elite striker, something Silva actually hasn't fought in his UFC run. So Belfort has a bit more of a puncher's chance than normal. As well, Silva did get caught by Chael Sonnen in his last fight; whether that was just because Silva didn't expect Sonnen to throw a punch or something else is the unanswered question.

(Also, something has to mess up Dana White's dream of getting GSP and Silva to fight in 2011. I just don't see it being GSP losing.)

I'm also throwing $10 on Belfort at a 2.85 payout so I would get $28.50 back if it comes through.

Bet summary:

Belfort $10 to get $28.50
Griffin $20 to get $44
Rocha $10 to get $32
Torres $20 to get $25.80
Ruediger $10 to get $25

UFC 125 Predictions

(1/01/11 9:25pm Note: For whatever reason, this post was posted with a date of 1/1/01, which meant that you would have had to look for it to find it. I present it unmodified - after this note, of course.)

Well, I'm going to make myself look like a fool again, and try to predict the outcomes fo fights on UFC 125 - Who's really watching this? I'll also throw in some thoeretical wagers from my friends at Partybets.com, just to show how easy it is to lose money. Without any further ado, let's start with the predictions:

Antonio Mckee over Jacob Volkmann

McKee has done everything asked by the UFC in order to get a contract - specifically show that he can finish people. He isn't going to blow this by losing, even if it means reverting to his old boring self.

Daniel Roberts over Greg Soto

Solely because of Roberts' victory with the Anaconda Choke in his last fight.

Mike Brown over Diego Nunes

Brown will want to get onto the UFC card, and try to make himself relevant in the Featherweight division once again.

Brad Tavares over Phil Baroni

Phil Baroni is an incredibly entertaining person on interviews. Unfortunately, I think he's done as a fighter.

Jeremy Stephens over Marcus Davis

More of a personal choice as I've turned into a Davis non-fan. Honestly, there's not too much to choose from here - both are fighting to keep their UFC contract, but both have been at best inconsistent in their last 5 fights.

Josh Grispi over Dustin Poirier

Grispi does not want to lose his title shot.

Clay Guida over Takanori Gomi

Really, the winners here are the fans. This should be a fantastic battle of two men who don't know much beyond go, go, go. Guida has the edge as he seems to have reinvigorated by joining Greg Jackson's camp.

Nate Diaz over Dong Hyun Kim

I like Kim a lot; however I've learned that Diaz tends to make me look like a fool when I pick against him.

Thiago Silva over Brandon Vera

Silva almost beat Rashad Evans; Vera was destroyed by Jon Jones. Need I say more? (Okay, Vera talks about his skill a lot, but doesn't like to show it very often.)

Chris Leben over Brian Stann

Leben star is on the rise after his June 2010 performance - with 2 wins in 2 weeks. Stann hasn't fared as well when challenged by good competition. I'll choose Leben.

Grey Maynard over Frankie Edgar

The only way Edgar wins is if Maynard decides to throw away his strength of wrestling to stand and fight with Edgar. I just don't see that happening.


Bets: $20 on Maynard to win (1.65) - Payout $33.
$20 on Thiago Silva to win (1.65) - Payout $33
$20 on Antonio McKee to win (1.45) - Payout $29

Quick UFC 116 Predictions

Jon Madsen over Karlos Vemola
Daniel Roberts over Forrest Petz
Gerald Harris over Dave Branch
Chris Tuchscherer over Brendan Schaub
Goran Reljic over Kendall Grove
Ricardo Romero over Seth Petruzelli
George Sotiropolous over Kurt Pellegrino
Krzysztof Soszynski over Stephan Bonnar
Chris Lytle over Matt Brown
Yoshishiro Akiyama over Chris Leben
Brock Lesnar over Shane Carwin

UFC 114 Predictions

From the official UFC 114 Program...

Jesse Forbes over Ryan Jensen
Joe Brammer over Aaron Riley
Cyrille Diabate over Luiz Cae
Melvin Guilllard over Waylon Lowe
Efrain Escudero over Dan Lauzon
Amir Sadollah over Dong Hyun Kim
Diego Sanchez over John Hathaway
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira over Jason Bril
Todd Duffee over Mike Russow
Michael Bisping over Dan Miller
Quentin "Rampage" Jackson over Rashad Evans

UFC 113 Predictions

After my 112 predictions went oh so well, I'm back to give some more wisdom. I'll note my theoretical wagers as I go through my picks.

UFC Undercard:

John Salter over Jason MacDonald
Yoshiyuki Yoshida over Mike Guymon
Tim Hague over Joey Beltran
T.J. Grant over Johny Hendricks
Marcus Davis over Jonathan Goulet
Tom Lawlor over Joe Doerksen

Main Card:

Sam Stout over Jeremy Stephens

Sam Stout lives up to his "Hands of Stone" nickname.

Alan Belcher over Patrick Cote

I don't want to make this pick, but Cote hasn't fought in forever. I think the rust will end up working against him.

Matt Mitrione over Kimbo Slice

Kimbo Slice looks very improved when he defeated Houston Alexander, but that was in part because Houston Alexander decided not to try to engage Slice in any sort of fight. Mitrione isn't going to take that strategy, and is a very good fighter as well. As much as I like Kimbo, I can't pick him.

Josh Koscheck over Paul Daley

Josh Koscheck will win this fight unless he tries to stand with Daley. Koscheck is arrogant enough to try to do this, but I think the lure of getting a title fight is enough to keep Koscheck on the right game plan and give him the win.

Bets: Josh Koscheck to win: $25 @1.33 to win $33.25, Koscheck to win via decision: $10 @ 4.5 to win $45

Lyoto Machida over Mauricio Shogun Rua for the 205-pound title

Ultimately, this fight comes down to who can adjust from the prior fight the best. I felt Rua won the first fight, but I think Machida is actually going to adjust better. He has the advantage, as his weakness was demonstrated in the first fight. Rua really didn't make any mistakes in the first fight; what adjustments can he make to that strategy?

Bets: Lyoto Machida to win: $10 @ 1.5 to win $15, the fight goes the distance: $10 @ 2.1 to win $21

UFC 112 Predictions

So, if I had thought about this earlier, I would have posted it earlier so that if I sweep the prelims that have already occurred, there would be no question that I actually haven't read any spoilers at all. (I haven't.

I'll throw in any theoretical wagers I might make on the main card based on the odds at Party Bets

Mostapha Al-Turk over Jon Madsen
Matt Veach over Paul Kelly
DaMarques Johnson over Brad Blackburn
Rick Story over Nick Osipczak
Phil Davis over Alexander Gustafsson

Main Card:

Terry Etim over Rafael Dos Anjos
Mark Munoz over Kendall Grove - $20 at 1.55 odds to win $31
Renzo Gracie over Matt Hughes - $20 at 4.40 odds to win $88

Matt Hughes last fought almost a year ago, and did not look sharp at all. (Some would argue that he lost the fight - as somebody who bet on Serra, I would definitely argue that.) It could be argued that he hasn't looked good in a fight since his defense against B.J. Penn in 2006. So I'm going against the grain and choosing Renzo Gracie to be less washed up than Matt Hughes and pull off an upset.

(I also acknowledge that this is (a) not likely to happen unless Hughes has lost all ability to perform takedowns and (b) not a smart method to lay wagers on sports - betting against somebody is always likely to burn you.)

B.J. Penn over Frankie Edgar

No wager here - Penn's odds are 1.10 which are way too low for anything except to add to another bet to get slightly better odds.

My pal Ben Miller thinks that Frankie Edgar can follow the same strategy as GSP did against BJ Penn, by making Penn continually defend against the takedown and thus wear down Penn's shoulder muscles. I understand his theory, and agree that Edgar is actually a more dangerous fighter than Diego Sanchez. But I just don't see Penn having lost his striking ability in 4 months. I have to give this fight to Edgar

Damien Maia over Anderson Silva - $10 at 6.00 odds to win $60

Admittedly, this is a bit of wishful thinking. I'm getting a bit weary of 3 divisions having two classes of fighters (the champion, and everybody else). But if Maia isn't afraid of Silva's striking (a big if after the Forrest Griffin fight), Maia is going to be able to take him down, and he actually has the submission skills that he might be able to do the unthinkable and catch Anderson Silva. Either way, I think this will be more interesting than the Penn/Edgar fight.