Sunday, February 27, 2011

UFC 127 Thoughts

A phrase that is repeated often is that you "never leave it in the judges' hands". Tonight, we saw 2 examples of why this is the case.

Nick Ring was given a unanimous decision against Riki Fukuda. I use the term given specifically because I don't understand how anybody could have had Nick Ring winning rounds 2 and 3. However, 3 judges disagreed with me, and we have what we have. In the grand scheme of things, this result will not affect UFC plans at all. If anything, it will enhance them, as Fukuda will be given another shot, while Ring will still remain undefeated. There is potential that both could end up as being players in the middleweight division, which would be win/win for UFC. If neither end up doing anything, it will not be because of this fight. It's a slight step back, but ultimately it will not harm them.

The other controversy was in the main event. Most people would assume that BJ Penn won the first round of the fight, and Jon Fitch won the third. It came down to what the judges felt of the second round. As it turns out, one judge felt that Fitch won the second round, giving Fitch a 29-28 win, while two others gave Penn the second round. But somewhat ironically, both judges gave the third round to Fitch 10-8, meaning that the fight was declared a draw two to two judges scoring the contest 28-28. In a sense, this made Fitch whole, as he was looking to end up losing a fight that most people (including BJ Penn) would have walked away from thinking that he had won. But more importantly, it might have set up a golden opportunity for the UFC.

It is generally assumed that assuming Georges St. Pierre defeats Jake Shields at UFC 129, he will move up to the middleweight division and face Anderson Silva. This would leave the welterweight title in limbo, with no champion and no two contenders set up for it. This fight was set to give one person the next title shot. But now there is no number one contender. If GSP stays at welterweight as champion, or if (heaven forbid) Jake Shields wins the title, the next challenger is undetermined.

But what if the more likely scenario occurs? GSP wins, then moves to the middleweight division. The welterweight title becomes vacant, and you have two fighters who just fought to a draw for the number one contender's spot. They could be slotted into a title shot without much argument, and the winner would be the undisputed champion. You would have a clean succession, and more of an opportunity to build up the next challenger for the title.

Sometimes when seemingly poor things happen, there's an opportunity made available to you. In this case, the future of the welterweight title might have become clear thanks to a questionable decision.
***
Overall, my picks were 7-4-1, and my theoretical wagers gave me $106.60, which is a net win of $16.60. On the year, I'm 19-13-2, with overall losses of $10.60.

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Saturday, February 26, 2011

UFC 127 Predictions

It's time once again for a UFC event. This is probably the weakest card we have seen since UFC 124, and UFC 124 had a gigantic main event. I'm not expecting too much fo this card, which probably means it will be awesome. Again, our friends at Partybets.com will provide theoretical wagering.

Preliminary card:

Maciej Jewtuszko over Curt Warburton

Jewtuszko had a dominating debut for WEC, destroying Anthony Njokuani by TKO in the first round. Curt Warburton couldn't beat Spencer Fisher. Easy pick.

Chris Tuchscherer over Mark Hunt

Takedown, submission attempt. Rinse and repeat until Hunt taps or 3 rounds are over.

Preliminary card (Facebook):

Zhang Tie Quan over Jason Reinhardt

When Zhang Tie Quan was first brought in to WEC as their first Chinese fighter, they wanted him to fight Jason Reinhardt, only Reinhardt was forced to pull out due to an injury. You would assume that UFC wouldn't pair their big Chinese hope against somebody who they felt had a chance to beat them. Now that it's happening again, I do not see a reason to pick Reinhardt, who is nowhere close to a UFC level fighter.

Anthony Perosh over Tom Blackledge

Preliminary card (Ion TV Card)

Nick Ring over Riki Fukuda

Though this is the most likely to be the fight to have a Silva/Cote ending.

James Te-Huna over Alexander Gustafsson

Call this a hunch, as Te-Huna is the underdog. He's riding a 6 fight win streak, including winning his last fight via TKO while punching using his broken arm.

Wager: $10 for James Te-Huna at 3.4 odds for $34 return.

Ross Pearson over Spencer Fisher

I don't really like Pearson, but Spencer Fisher sucks.

Wager: $20 for Ross Pearson at 1.55 odds for $31 return.

Main card

Kyle Noke over Chris Camozzi

Noke has been pretty dominant in his two fights, while Camozzi has won a decision and had to withdraw from TUF due to damage received in his entry fight to the show.

Wager: $20 on Kyle Noke at 1.48 odds for $29.60 return.

Chris Lytle over Brian Ebersole

Ebersole is a replacement for Carlos Condit, and I don't think he's had enough time to properly prepare.

George Sotiropoulos over Dennis Siver

I'm staying away from betting on this - I think Sotiropoulous is going to win, but the odds on him (1.25) are way too low. Siver isn't getting enough credit for being a good fighter, and I think this is going to be a lot closer than the fans are assuming.

Michael Bisping over Jorge Rivera

I give Jorge Rivera credit for trying to create interest via videos like this:


Unfortunately for Rivera, he's still not as good as Bisping, and Bisping will defeat him.

Wager: $20 on Michael Bisping at 1.3 odds for $26 return

B.J. Penn over Jon Fitch

BJ Penn has sucked me in again. His performance against a pretty good wrestler in Matt Hughes has me thinking that hecan actually solve the Jon Fitch problem. (The problem being that Fitch does nothing but take people down and then grind them for 3 rounds - not very exciting.) Add in that Fitch has claimed to figure out that he needs to finish fights to get title shots, plus Fitch has changed his diet to be vegetarian and this is not going to be that heavy, and he might change his style to BJ's benefit.

Wager: $20 on B.J. Penn at 2.5 odds for a $50 return

Bet Summary:

Penn $20 to get $50
Bisping $20 to get $26
Noke $20 to get $29.60
Pearson $20 to get $31
Te-Huna $10 to get $34

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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Welcome to Montreal Brent

While I'm watching the Montreal Canadiens' defense corps prove why this trade was needed, I'll point you to Life of a Hockey Widow a blog written by the wife of new Montreal Canadiens defenseman Brent Sopel. It's an intresting look at what it's like to be the wife of a professional athlete.

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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Survivor: Redemption Island Episode 2 Thoughts

The storytelling of the current season has been fascinating to see. Normally, the post immunity challenge action gives us a decoy person who isn't going anywhere, but provides tension as to who will get voted out. These two weeks, they haven't even pretended to have a backup - they have basically stated who will get voted out, leaving you to wonder if the hidden immunity idol is going to be played.

In my view, this is a welcome departure. The fake out always drove me crazy; it was an obvious, yet flawed, attempt to divert you away from what was actually happening.
Sometimes linear storytellilng is just more effective, especially when it lets you concentrate on other, more subtle aspects that presented themselves.

An underlying theme to this show was the paralleling of Russell and Rob. Last episode, we saw Russell join forces with Stephanie in a repeat of his strategy from previous years. This episode, we saw Rob annoit Natalie as his go to person and his person he'll bring to the end, repeating his strategy from All-Stars. The producers then caught a break when in the Reward/Immunity Challenge they had a brief Rob/Russell competition, with both racing to get a key. You could sense the tension when they "competed" against each other, and when they have their inevitable confrontation, it will end up being the highlight of the season.

What was more interesting was that both Natalie and Stephanie were tasked with opening the chest using the keys they were given, and Stephanie came out clearly ahead. Is this a nod to Stephanie being more of an equal partner to Russell, with Natalie being more of a follower?

Even at tribal council, they laid out a simple story - Rob told us that he would blindside Matt, while getting Kristina to ue the immunity idol she held, and sure enough that's what happened. They are trying to tell the story that Rob and Russell's experience is helping them to dominate the game, and things like this tribal council help the story.
***
A plea to Survivor producers - either eliminate the hidden immunity idol, or make it even more difficult to find. I was fine with Kristina finding the idol without a clue - she was actively searching for it. But when Ralph accidentally finds it while looking for rocks (why is Ralph looking for rocks in the first place?) I had enough. The idol is quickly becoming a stale part of the show, and will soon create a situation where people are going to spend the first 3 days searching for idols, instead of creating relationships.

Here's a thought - do not plant the idol until a tribe earns their first clue. Make them earn a chance at the idol - if you don't win a challenge, you don't get an idol to find.
***
Matt played the game foolishly. When you are confronted by an alpha dog that everyone is flocking to, you have two options: (a) Attack the alpha dog head on or (b) make yourself invisible to the alpha dog, falling in line as necessary. Matt fell in line, but failed to make himself invisible. Getting close to Ashley is going to draw attention to yourself. Congratulating the other tribe after an immunity challenge you just lost is going to upset people and lead to charges of playing both sides. No matter how much you might think that you're tight with the alpha dog, the alpha dog is going to always look for reasons to get rid of anything that threatens him. Matt was the victim of this; if he paid more attention to his game, he should have seen it coming.

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Monday, February 21, 2011

Survivor: Redemption Island Rob and Russell thoughts

Well, I promised it, and I'm delivering.

Russell - I might be in the minority, but I don't think that he' in that bad of a position. Yes, the guys (specifically David) are suspicious of him. At the same time, so long as he doeesn't ruffle feathers, he might be able to get them to vote out weak players, and then sneak into the merge. At that point, he's back in the game, with an alliance of 2. Not that horrible of a spot at all. Of course, this assumes that he's not going to cause any waves at camp. Sadly, I'm reminded of the story of the Scorpion and the Frog.

Boston Rob - He's in a great position to make it to the merge, which is all he wants. An alliance of 6 this early in the game? One heck of a start to the season. Of course, there's one small catch - the one person who attempted to target him has a not-so-hidden immunity idol, and is kinda smart. Which means that the vote gets to be split yet again, with Phillip likely to be the unfortunate target. If he can get rid of Kristina, he's going to go far in the game.

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Sunday, February 20, 2011

Short plug in lieu of owed post

Yup, I still have some things to say about Rob and Russell, and that will come tomorrow, I swear!

In the mean time, check out my good friend Gary Wise's new blog, which is updated very frequently (so hit it often - you'll probably find a new post!)

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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Survivor: Redemption Island - Episode 1 Thoughts

It's back!

I'm going to try to leave Rob and Russell for a seperate post, and instead touch on a few of the new players we've been introduced to.

Ralph - He says he's a combination JT and Big Tom, and I get the comparison. But he's more Big Tom than JT. That isn't a bad thing; it means people will like you which is always a plus when getting into an alliance. It just might hurt in the end, when people realize that it might get you $1 million.

Stephanie - The only one to realize that aligning with Russell is a smart thing. Russell has to change his game somewhat to win, but his loyalty doesn't have to be changed. That has worked for him both times, and is one of his (few) redeeming qualities in the game. She could go far, unless she becomes a proxy vote against Russell.

FranchesquiaFrancesca - Ultimately, her fault was letting herself get caught up in Kristina's scramble to save herself. She should have questioned why Rob wanted to vote Kristina out, and she should have realized that the vote could be split and she would be gone, then acted accordingly. Sometimes you have to cut bait very early on (as Holly showed us last year.) She didn't and she paid for it.

Phillip - My favourite character right now, and possibly more comedy gold than Coach. First with his "I was a federal agent" comment (which seems ridiculous), then with his paranoia of needing to know why he should be voting Boston Rob out, and finally with his destruction of Kristina and Francesca at tribal council by outing them as conspiring to vote out Boston Rob along with Kristina's ownership of the immunity idol, it was awesome. There was a hint of smartness to him, which was surprising. Demanding to know why he should go against the tribe and vote Boston Rob out, even though they didn't have the votes to do it, actually makes sense. Why put yourself in his crosshairs when he has the majority of the tribe behind him? I don't think this will last, but the intelligent thought did catch me off guard.

Kristina - Way too aggressive in her game play. Yes, there is an opportunity to find an immunity idol. But do you remember Heroes vs. Villains? Rob had Russell pegged there as wanting to find the idol, so he was a threat. Why expose yourself to that (especially when there's no chance that they're just going to put the idol in your stuff)? As a rule, scrambling on day 3 is always a bad thing. As another rule, you really can't make bold moves on day 3 without putting a target on your back on day 4. And what was with the plan to vote out Natalie instead of Rob? How does that solve your "Rob sees me as a sneaky player" problem? This was not a very good opening episode for her. The only saving grace she has is that she figured out she didn't have to use the immunity idol, so she is somewhat protected for the next tribal council. Her goal has to be to make it to some sort of tribe switch (if one exists.) Her position in the current tribe is beyond bottom; her only chance is a fresh start.

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Thursday, February 10, 2011

Is it possible to be just whelmed?

Is it just me, or is this X-Men: First Class trailer good, with hints of promise, but not enough to send you into true fanboy orgasm?

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Paying tribute via hockey mask

Alex Auld has a new mask - one that pays tribute to Jacques Plante, Ken Dryden and Patrick Roy. It is awesome.

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Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Random Thoughts - February 9, 2011

A few quick links today:

  • Rappers prefer the Blackberry. I don't know why this surprises me, but it does.

  • Mark Evans tells us not to multitask. Why? Because he can't multitask.

  • Christopher Hitchens pays tribute to Ronald Reagan as only he can:By a large backhanded compliment

  • In other Reagan news, Ron Reagan is not pleased that Sarah Palin was selected to speak at a tribute to his father.

  • Eligible for election to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2015? Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Kurt Warner and Orlando Pace. Maybe we can just declare 2015 to be the celebration of the 1999 St. Louis Rams?

  • Peter King takes Roger Goddell to task for censoring James Harrison's remarks during media day, calling Harrison's remark an interesting quote from one of the biggest stars in the game. Two points:
    1) Harrison is not anywhere close to one of the biggest starts in the game (Super Bowl or otherwise).
    2) How was what he said any different than what he said and done in the past? Harrison doesn't like the new rules on hits. We know this. It's not interesting that he would say this again.

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Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Random Thoughts - February 8, 2011

One thing that is missed in the ongoing brouhaha over Usage Based Billing for the Internet here in Canada is that Bell has given us an idea as to the cost of what 1 GB of transferred data would cost. With their cap system already in place, Bell offers a 40 GB "Insurance Policy" at a flat rate of $5. This is offered regardless of whether your cap is 25 GB, or 75 GB.

If you assume that Bell is not offering this Insurance Policy at less than cost(which I thinking is a safe assumption), we can calculate that 1 GB of transferred data costs less than $ 0.125 (as $5 / 40GB = 0.125 $/GB). If that's the case, why are they charging overage fees at 16-24x that rate? Heck, if the goal is to move to a true Usage Based Billing system, why not charge, say $25 for the actual connection to Bell's internet connection, then charge $0.15 per GB transferred?

***

One surprising development coming from the coverage of the UBB fiasco is to see where the national newspapers have come down. The Globe and Mail, owned in part by large ISP - and main proponent of UBB - Bell, has been anti-UBB, going so far as to publish an editorial condemning the decision of CRTC. Meanwhile, the National Post, right-wing and supporter of free-market based economic policies, have carried Bell's water for this issue, generally publishing pro-UBB pieces while paying lip service to the anti-UBB group.

This is the opposite than you would expect given both papers' ownership and editorial policies. It's fascinating to watch, and it will be interesting to see if either side changes their position as time goes on.

***

Quick links:

  • Larry Granillo of Baseball Prospectus determines which game Ferris Bueller attended on his day off.

  • The wife of the British Parliment's Speaker of the House posed provocatively for a British newspaper. She also says their taxpayer paid residence has a sexy view. She also admits to previously being a binge drinker and having one night stands prior to being married. This causes a stir in British politics, with the pictures being referred to as "nude" (though she is covered by a bedsheet) and her single life (prior to being married and being in the limelight) is pilloried. All this is ridiculous - she is guilty of very bad judgement, but not much else.

  • I'm floored by these findings: Popular kids more likely to be bullies. Of course they are - part of what makes bullies successful is the validation of their actions by their peers. If they are popular, they are more likely to get that validation, which then emboldens them even more, creating a never ending loop of bullying.

  • And finally, Rick Mercer exposes Gino Vannelli's sinister ambitions. He's only in it for himself! (h/t to Aaron Wherry)

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Sunday, February 06, 2011

Steven Seagal Strikes Again

That kick that Anderson Silva used to win? Steven Seagal taught him it! Ariel Helwani brings the rest of the awesome

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UFC 126 Thoughts

In April, I asked the question What do you do about a problem like Anderson? In the end, I wasn't sure how exactly to force Silva to stop with the antics and actually fight. Based on UFC 126, Joe Silva and company seem to have determined how to do this.

Silva came out and defeated Vitor Belfort in the first round of their fight. No dancing, no waiting for a counterstrike. Once the fight opened up a bit, Silva was willing to fight toe to toe with Belfort, and used a straight front kick to Belfort's jaw to win. This was the most impressive Silva looked since the Forrest Griffin fight in 2009. It was also a departure from the Silva seen in the Damien Maia and Thales Leites defenses. This Silva wanted to finish the fight.

In part, this can traced to Silva's desire to best a person he felt was a turncoat. Rumour had it that Silva was angry that Belfort had taken a title shot against a fellow camp member. As well, Belfort was still more beloved in Brazil than the currently more successful Silva. To defeat Belfort was to gain the respect of his home country, and to defeat a defector.

As well, Silva had something to prove. His fight with Chael Sonnen chipped away at his unbeatable aura. Sonnen was 2 minutes away from getting a decision victory on Silva, having dominated him for 4 1/2 rounds. Silva got a remarkable triangle victory for the win, but all of the sudden there was doubt about him. Was he the best pound for pound fighter in the world, or was Georges St. Pierre now the best fighter? He needed to not just win his next fight, he needed to win it impressively. He needed a stoppage.

Credit to Joe Silva for putting these fights together, and to Dana White to begin talking about a possible Georges St. Pierre/Anderson Silva superfight, to give Silva a carrot to drive towards. We've seen what happens when you challenge Silva; the question now is what will happen if Silva runs out of challenges?

***

Every once in a while, UFC can pull of a shocker of an announcement. Somehow yesterday they made one of the most surprising announcements of their history.

Jon Jones had just completed a definitive victory over Ryan Bader, which was surprising for the domination that Jones showed. Then Joe Rogan showed up into the ring and gave some shocking news. Rashad Evans had suffered a knee injury, and a new opponent was needed for Lightheavyweight champion Shogun Rua. Rogen then asked Jones if he was willing to take the fight with 6 weeks of preparation time. Naturally, Jones said yes.

Really, Jones had no reason to say no. Taking a fight against an elite fighter with 6 weeks of preparation and recovery time from a previous fight is a no lose situation for him. If he wins, then obviously he's a world champion. If he loses, then he has a built in excuse that he didn't have enough time to prepare. With that said, it could be too early for Jones to actually become champion. Though he's looked strong to date, he hasn't faced any elite fighters. And he's in the process of still learning. He's very much a raw talent that is still forming into a fighter.

Even still, the UFC was correct to give him a title shot. They have hit on something that has the imagination of most of their fans, and you should always strike when the iron is hot.

***

(Added 10:51 pm) My picks for UFC 126 were 6-5, with my betting getting me 69.80, or a loss of $0.20. For the year, I'm 12-9-1, while losing $27.20 on my theoretical wagers (this assumes that PartyBets considers a draw to be a lost wager.)

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Saturday, February 05, 2011

UFC 126 Predictions

Once again, it's time my UFC 126 Predictions. Less analysis here, though with our friends at PartyBets.com I will provide a few theoretical wagers.

Preliminary card

Mike Pierce defeats Kenny Robertson
Ricardo Romero defeats Kyle Kingsbury

(Note: this is based solely on Kingsbury completely changing his look to be more like a bodybuilder, and his working with Victor Conte, famous for his involvement in BALCO.)

Gabe Ruediger defeats Paul Taylor

(I'm also taking Ruediger at 2.50 for $10 - a return of $25.)

Preliminary card (Facebook Stream)

Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto defeats Demetrious Johnson

Likely not my best choice as Demetrious is better than Kid Yamamoto at this point in both of their careers, but I have a hunce that Yamamoto is going to be very motivated to win this fight.

Preliminary card (Spike TV) (aka WEC on Spike)

Chad Mendes over Michihiro Omigawa

As better as it would be for Omigawa to win here, and as dangerous as Omigawa could be, I don't see Mendes losing.

Donald Cerrone over Paul Kelly

Kelly isn't a joke, and honestly he'd be a good fighter to take a flyer on if you wanted to make a wager. But Cerrone has something to prove here - the whispers that WEC fighters only looked good because they had much weaker opponents are held against him. He wins.

Main card

Miguel Torres over Antonio Banuelos

Easiest choice of the card. I'm also putting $20 at a payout of 1.28 to get back $25.60

Jon Jones over Ryan Bader

Let's not overlook Bader here - he is a great wrestler and could easily just take Jones down for the win. But Jones is something special - also a capable wrestler, but also shows an evolution into MMA fighter that could be considered unprecedented. I can't go against him in this fight.

Carlos Eduardo Rocha over Jake Ellenberger

I'm throwing $10 on this with a 3.20 payout to get $32 back. Ellenberger is a decent wrestler but he's going to have to stand here - Rocha is a great submission fighter. I see Rocha managing to get him to the ground and getting Ellenberger trapped and tapping out.

Forrest Griffin over Rich Franklin

An interesting fight - Franklin is the favourite, and deservedly so. But Griffin hasn't fought in 13 months, and seems to be motivated once again. I'm probably showing too much faith in Forrest, but at the same time, Franklin did not look good against Liddell before catching him with the one punch (heck, the doctor would have stopped the fight after the first round due to Franklin's broken arm.) So I'm going with Griffin, and putting $20 on him with a 2.2 payout to get back $44.

Vitor Belfort over Anderson Silva (c)

This is an insane pick. I admit it, and it's probably not going to be a winner. But Belfort's an elite striker, something Silva actually hasn't fought in his UFC run. So Belfort has a bit more of a puncher's chance than normal. As well, Silva did get caught by Chael Sonnen in his last fight; whether that was just because Silva didn't expect Sonnen to throw a punch or something else is the unanswered question.

(Also, something has to mess up Dana White's dream of getting GSP and Silva to fight in 2011. I just don't see it being GSP losing.)

I'm also throwing $10 on Belfort at a 2.85 payout so I would get $28.50 back if it comes through.

Bet summary:

Belfort $10 to get $28.50
Griffin $20 to get $44
Rocha $10 to get $32
Torres $20 to get $25.80
Ruediger $10 to get $25

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Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Random Thoughts - February 2, 2011

(Trying something new, similiar to the Monday Musings that I have done in the past. It should cover stuff that isn't big enough for an actual blog post, but still enough to put a paragraph or two together. Let me know what you think!)

This story from the Daily Beast on the spoiling of Survivor is huge, if true. In short, a spoiler from the Survivor Sucks forums was sued by Mark Burnett's production company for spoiling Samoa. He gives up his source for the season - Russell Hantz, the biggest Survivor star since Rupert Boneham, and the soon to be star of the next Survivor season.

If the allegations are true, then CBS and Mark Burnett are in a bit of a situation. On one hand, they have fought dilligently to stop any information from getting out, believing that it would ruin the season. On the other hand, they are in a position of possibly having to punish their big draw on the upcoming season and likely do so in a public manner (if they do it discreetly, how will it act as a deterrent to the rest of the world?). It will be interesting to see how Mark Burnett and CBS eventually react to this.

(I use allegations very strongly here; the end of the Daily Beast article gives a better idea of who the spoiler from Survivor Sucks is, and it gives you the impression that he is confrontational and willing to hold a grudge. As well, Hantz's story is not really available; we should wait until he's able to tell his side of his story before truly passing judgment.)

*******

When the iPad came out, it was viewed as a threat to eReaders. It was a singular device that could be used not only to read books, but to watch videos, listen to music and surf the internet, while an eReader just allowed you to read books. As well, the iPad would be linked to Apple's iTunes suite, which would have an iBooks section to purchase new books. Amazon, Barnes and Noble and the other eReader makers moved to mitigate the effect of the iBooks section by offering applications that allowed users to read books purchased through their online stores on the iPad. Now it appears that Apple is on the defensive, as they have implemented tighter controls on eBook applications.

This looks like a plain attempt on Apple's part to take a cut of the revenue of the existing eBook retailers in one way or another. They're giving the other retailers a choice - give us 30% of all revenues derived from purchases initiated on apps from our hardware, or don't be on our hardware. If they do remove themselves from Apple hardware, that would likely drive people who used their Apple iPad to read books from Amazon, Barnes and Noble etc. to find another method to read their books - which convieniently would be found on iTunes via iBooks. Either way, it's a sign that Apple's grand plan to take over the eBook world hasn't quite worked out as they planned, and they are trying to strongarm their way back into the market.

*******

Quick hits:

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