Saturday, April 10, 2010

UFC 112 Predictions

So, if I had thought about this earlier, I would have posted it earlier so that if I sweep the prelims that have already occurred, there would be no question that I actually haven't read any spoilers at all. (I haven't.

I'll throw in any theoretical wagers I might make on the main card based on the odds at Party Bets

Mostapha Al-Turk over Jon Madsen
Matt Veach over Paul Kelly
DaMarques Johnson over Brad Blackburn
Rick Story over Nick Osipczak
Phil Davis over Alexander Gustafsson

Main Card:

Terry Etim over Rafael Dos Anjos
Mark Munoz over Kendall Grove - $20 at 1.55 odds to win $31
Renzo Gracie over Matt Hughes - $20 at 4.40 odds to win $88

Matt Hughes last fought almost a year ago, and did not look sharp at all. (Some would argue that he lost the fight - as somebody who bet on Serra, I would definitely argue that.) It could be argued that he hasn't looked good in a fight since his defense against B.J. Penn in 2006. So I'm going against the grain and choosing Renzo Gracie to be less washed up than Matt Hughes and pull off an upset.

(I also acknowledge that this is (a) not likely to happen unless Hughes has lost all ability to perform takedowns and (b) not a smart method to lay wagers on sports - betting against somebody is always likely to burn you.)

B.J. Penn over Frankie Edgar

No wager here - Penn's odds are 1.10 which are way too low for anything except to add to another bet to get slightly better odds.

My pal Ben Miller thinks that Frankie Edgar can follow the same strategy as GSP did against BJ Penn, by making Penn continually defend against the takedown and thus wear down Penn's shoulder muscles. I understand his theory, and agree that Edgar is actually a more dangerous fighter than Diego Sanchez. But I just don't see Penn having lost his striking ability in 4 months. I have to give this fight to Edgar

Damien Maia over Anderson Silva - $10 at 6.00 odds to win $60

Admittedly, this is a bit of wishful thinking. I'm getting a bit weary of 3 divisions having two classes of fighters (the champion, and everybody else). But if Maia isn't afraid of Silva's striking (a big if after the Forrest Griffin fight), Maia is going to be able to take him down, and he actually has the submission skills that he might be able to do the unthinkable and catch Anderson Silva. Either way, I think this will be more interesting than the Penn/Edgar fight.

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