Saturday, February 05, 2011

UFC 126 Predictions

Once again, it's time my UFC 126 Predictions. Less analysis here, though with our friends at PartyBets.com I will provide a few theoretical wagers.

Preliminary card

Mike Pierce defeats Kenny Robertson
Ricardo Romero defeats Kyle Kingsbury

(Note: this is based solely on Kingsbury completely changing his look to be more like a bodybuilder, and his working with Victor Conte, famous for his involvement in BALCO.)

Gabe Ruediger defeats Paul Taylor

(I'm also taking Ruediger at 2.50 for $10 - a return of $25.)

Preliminary card (Facebook Stream)

Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto defeats Demetrious Johnson

Likely not my best choice as Demetrious is better than Kid Yamamoto at this point in both of their careers, but I have a hunce that Yamamoto is going to be very motivated to win this fight.

Preliminary card (Spike TV) (aka WEC on Spike)

Chad Mendes over Michihiro Omigawa

As better as it would be for Omigawa to win here, and as dangerous as Omigawa could be, I don't see Mendes losing.

Donald Cerrone over Paul Kelly

Kelly isn't a joke, and honestly he'd be a good fighter to take a flyer on if you wanted to make a wager. But Cerrone has something to prove here - the whispers that WEC fighters only looked good because they had much weaker opponents are held against him. He wins.

Main card

Miguel Torres over Antonio Banuelos

Easiest choice of the card. I'm also putting $20 at a payout of 1.28 to get back $25.60

Jon Jones over Ryan Bader

Let's not overlook Bader here - he is a great wrestler and could easily just take Jones down for the win. But Jones is something special - also a capable wrestler, but also shows an evolution into MMA fighter that could be considered unprecedented. I can't go against him in this fight.

Carlos Eduardo Rocha over Jake Ellenberger

I'm throwing $10 on this with a 3.20 payout to get $32 back. Ellenberger is a decent wrestler but he's going to have to stand here - Rocha is a great submission fighter. I see Rocha managing to get him to the ground and getting Ellenberger trapped and tapping out.

Forrest Griffin over Rich Franklin

An interesting fight - Franklin is the favourite, and deservedly so. But Griffin hasn't fought in 13 months, and seems to be motivated once again. I'm probably showing too much faith in Forrest, but at the same time, Franklin did not look good against Liddell before catching him with the one punch (heck, the doctor would have stopped the fight after the first round due to Franklin's broken arm.) So I'm going with Griffin, and putting $20 on him with a 2.2 payout to get back $44.

Vitor Belfort over Anderson Silva (c)

This is an insane pick. I admit it, and it's probably not going to be a winner. But Belfort's an elite striker, something Silva actually hasn't fought in his UFC run. So Belfort has a bit more of a puncher's chance than normal. As well, Silva did get caught by Chael Sonnen in his last fight; whether that was just because Silva didn't expect Sonnen to throw a punch or something else is the unanswered question.

(Also, something has to mess up Dana White's dream of getting GSP and Silva to fight in 2011. I just don't see it being GSP losing.)

I'm also throwing $10 on Belfort at a 2.85 payout so I would get $28.50 back if it comes through.

Bet summary:

Belfort $10 to get $28.50
Griffin $20 to get $44
Rocha $10 to get $32
Torres $20 to get $25.80
Ruediger $10 to get $25

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