UFC 127 Thoughts

A phrase that is repeated often is that you "never leave it in the judges' hands". Tonight, we saw 2 examples of why this is the case.

Nick Ring was given a unanimous decision against Riki Fukuda. I use the term given specifically because I don't understand how anybody could have had Nick Ring winning rounds 2 and 3. However, 3 judges disagreed with me, and we have what we have. In the grand scheme of things, this result will not affect UFC plans at all. If anything, it will enhance them, as Fukuda will be given another shot, while Ring will still remain undefeated. There is potential that both could end up as being players in the middleweight division, which would be win/win for UFC. If neither end up doing anything, it will not be because of this fight. It's a slight step back, but ultimately it will not harm them.

The other controversy was in the main event. Most people would assume that BJ Penn won the first round of the fight, and Jon Fitch won the third. It came down to what the judges felt of the second round. As it turns out, one judge felt that Fitch won the second round, giving Fitch a 29-28 win, while two others gave Penn the second round. But somewhat ironically, both judges gave the third round to Fitch 10-8, meaning that the fight was declared a draw two to two judges scoring the contest 28-28. In a sense, this made Fitch whole, as he was looking to end up losing a fight that most people (including BJ Penn) would have walked away from thinking that he had won. But more importantly, it might have set up a golden opportunity for the UFC.

It is generally assumed that assuming Georges St. Pierre defeats Jake Shields at UFC 129, he will move up to the middleweight division and face Anderson Silva. This would leave the welterweight title in limbo, with no champion and no two contenders set up for it. This fight was set to give one person the next title shot. But now there is no number one contender. If GSP stays at welterweight as champion, or if (heaven forbid) Jake Shields wins the title, the next challenger is undetermined.

But what if the more likely scenario occurs? GSP wins, then moves to the middleweight division. The welterweight title becomes vacant, and you have two fighters who just fought to a draw for the number one contender's spot. They could be slotted into a title shot without much argument, and the winner would be the undisputed champion. You would have a clean succession, and more of an opportunity to build up the next challenger for the title.

Sometimes when seemingly poor things happen, there's an opportunity made available to you. In this case, the future of the welterweight title might have become clear thanks to a questionable decision.
***
Overall, my picks were 7-4-1, and my theoretical wagers gave me $106.60, which is a net win of $16.60. On the year, I'm 19-13-2, with overall losses of $10.60.

UFC 127 Predictions

It's time once again for a UFC event. This is probably the weakest card we have seen since UFC 124, and UFC 124 had a gigantic main event. I'm not expecting too much fo this card, which probably means it will be awesome. Again, our friends at Partybets.com will provide theoretical wagering.

Preliminary card:

Maciej Jewtuszko over Curt Warburton

Jewtuszko had a dominating debut for WEC, destroying Anthony Njokuani by TKO in the first round. Curt Warburton couldn't beat Spencer Fisher. Easy pick.

Chris Tuchscherer over Mark Hunt

Takedown, submission attempt. Rinse and repeat until Hunt taps or 3 rounds are over.

Preliminary card (Facebook):

Zhang Tie Quan over Jason Reinhardt

When Zhang Tie Quan was first brought in to WEC as their first Chinese fighter, they wanted him to fight Jason Reinhardt, only Reinhardt was forced to pull out due to an injury. You would assume that UFC wouldn't pair their big Chinese hope against somebody who they felt had a chance to beat them. Now that it's happening again, I do not see a reason to pick Reinhardt, who is nowhere close to a UFC level fighter.

Anthony Perosh over Tom Blackledge

Preliminary card (Ion TV Card)

Nick Ring over Riki Fukuda

Though this is the most likely to be the fight to have a Silva/Cote ending.

James Te-Huna over Alexander Gustafsson

Call this a hunch, as Te-Huna is the underdog. He's riding a 6 fight win streak, including winning his last fight via TKO while punching using his broken arm.

Wager: $10 for James Te-Huna at 3.4 odds for $34 return.

Ross Pearson over Spencer Fisher

I don't really like Pearson, but Spencer Fisher sucks.

Wager: $20 for Ross Pearson at 1.55 odds for $31 return.

Main card

Kyle Noke over Chris Camozzi

Noke has been pretty dominant in his two fights, while Camozzi has won a decision and had to withdraw from TUF due to damage received in his entry fight to the show.

Wager: $20 on Kyle Noke at 1.48 odds for $29.60 return.

Chris Lytle over Brian Ebersole

Ebersole is a replacement for Carlos Condit, and I don't think he's had enough time to properly prepare.

George Sotiropoulos over Dennis Siver

I'm staying away from betting on this - I think Sotiropoulous is going to win, but the odds on him (1.25) are way too low. Siver isn't getting enough credit for being a good fighter, and I think this is going to be a lot closer than the fans are assuming.

Michael Bisping over Jorge Rivera

I give Jorge Rivera credit for trying to create interest via videos like this:


Unfortunately for Rivera, he's still not as good as Bisping, and Bisping will defeat him.

Wager: $20 on Michael Bisping at 1.3 odds for $26 return

B.J. Penn over Jon Fitch

BJ Penn has sucked me in again. His performance against a pretty good wrestler in Matt Hughes has me thinking that hecan actually solve the Jon Fitch problem. (The problem being that Fitch does nothing but take people down and then grind them for 3 rounds - not very exciting.) Add in that Fitch has claimed to figure out that he needs to finish fights to get title shots, plus Fitch has changed his diet to be vegetarian and this is not going to be that heavy, and he might change his style to BJ's benefit.

Wager: $20 on B.J. Penn at 2.5 odds for a $50 return

Bet Summary:

Penn $20 to get $50
Bisping $20 to get $26
Noke $20 to get $29.60
Pearson $20 to get $31
Te-Huna $10 to get $34