Saturday, February 26, 2011

UFC 127 Predictions

It's time once again for a UFC event. This is probably the weakest card we have seen since UFC 124, and UFC 124 had a gigantic main event. I'm not expecting too much fo this card, which probably means it will be awesome. Again, our friends at Partybets.com will provide theoretical wagering.

Preliminary card:

Maciej Jewtuszko over Curt Warburton

Jewtuszko had a dominating debut for WEC, destroying Anthony Njokuani by TKO in the first round. Curt Warburton couldn't beat Spencer Fisher. Easy pick.

Chris Tuchscherer over Mark Hunt

Takedown, submission attempt. Rinse and repeat until Hunt taps or 3 rounds are over.

Preliminary card (Facebook):

Zhang Tie Quan over Jason Reinhardt

When Zhang Tie Quan was first brought in to WEC as their first Chinese fighter, they wanted him to fight Jason Reinhardt, only Reinhardt was forced to pull out due to an injury. You would assume that UFC wouldn't pair their big Chinese hope against somebody who they felt had a chance to beat them. Now that it's happening again, I do not see a reason to pick Reinhardt, who is nowhere close to a UFC level fighter.

Anthony Perosh over Tom Blackledge

Preliminary card (Ion TV Card)

Nick Ring over Riki Fukuda

Though this is the most likely to be the fight to have a Silva/Cote ending.

James Te-Huna over Alexander Gustafsson

Call this a hunch, as Te-Huna is the underdog. He's riding a 6 fight win streak, including winning his last fight via TKO while punching using his broken arm.

Wager: $10 for James Te-Huna at 3.4 odds for $34 return.

Ross Pearson over Spencer Fisher

I don't really like Pearson, but Spencer Fisher sucks.

Wager: $20 for Ross Pearson at 1.55 odds for $31 return.

Main card

Kyle Noke over Chris Camozzi

Noke has been pretty dominant in his two fights, while Camozzi has won a decision and had to withdraw from TUF due to damage received in his entry fight to the show.

Wager: $20 on Kyle Noke at 1.48 odds for $29.60 return.

Chris Lytle over Brian Ebersole

Ebersole is a replacement for Carlos Condit, and I don't think he's had enough time to properly prepare.

George Sotiropoulos over Dennis Siver

I'm staying away from betting on this - I think Sotiropoulous is going to win, but the odds on him (1.25) are way too low. Siver isn't getting enough credit for being a good fighter, and I think this is going to be a lot closer than the fans are assuming.

Michael Bisping over Jorge Rivera

I give Jorge Rivera credit for trying to create interest via videos like this:


Unfortunately for Rivera, he's still not as good as Bisping, and Bisping will defeat him.

Wager: $20 on Michael Bisping at 1.3 odds for $26 return

B.J. Penn over Jon Fitch

BJ Penn has sucked me in again. His performance against a pretty good wrestler in Matt Hughes has me thinking that hecan actually solve the Jon Fitch problem. (The problem being that Fitch does nothing but take people down and then grind them for 3 rounds - not very exciting.) Add in that Fitch has claimed to figure out that he needs to finish fights to get title shots, plus Fitch has changed his diet to be vegetarian and this is not going to be that heavy, and he might change his style to BJ's benefit.

Wager: $20 on B.J. Penn at 2.5 odds for a $50 return

Bet Summary:

Penn $20 to get $50
Bisping $20 to get $26
Noke $20 to get $29.60
Pearson $20 to get $31
Te-Huna $10 to get $34

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