Survivor: Blood vs. Water Pre-Finale Power Rankings

7. Gervase

On the latest Survivor Know-It-Alls, Stephen Fischbach attempted to figure out what was the path that would lead to Gervase winning the game. Rob Cesternino came up with the one thing he has to do - vote out Tyson. This is true, but it's not enough.

The problem for Gervase (and the reason why he's a lock solid pick to make final tribal) is that he's pissed off too many people. His celebrations and arrogance have been comical for the lack of self-awareness, and the single worst thing that has ever happened to Gervase's chances to winning. People are angry that he beat them, and then view his celebrations as undeserved since his actions had very little to do with their ouster. Nobody is going to want to vote for him, even if he makes the big move and engineers Tyson's destruction.

What else can he do? I have no clue. He'd have to become really humble very quickly, have a Sophie Clarke-esque breakdown at a tribal council and own all of his actions. And that isn't going to help.

6. Tina

I don't have much to say about Tina's chances here. She can beat Gervase simply by not being Gervase. But her story that she's going to tell the jury is not strong - she can only say that she survived on Redemption Island and won when she needed to. It's not going to be enough, and unless she can take claim to coming back from Redemption Island and then getting rid of Tyson, she can't win.

5. Ciera

Ciera's problem is that she made her move a step too late; if she jumps to get rid of Tyson at the final 7 she has a strong story to tell and can suck up to the jury by being the one to get rid of Tyson. But now? The jury is going to say "ballsy play kid, but too little, too late." She can't beat Tyson either, so her best chance is to go with Tina and Gervase and have the stronger story. If she faces her mom, Hayden or Tyson, she has no chance of winning.

4. Laura M

Now we're getting to the people who stand a chance. Laura M can tell an amazing story of dominating at Redemption Island, of survival when others attempted to get rid of her. She probably can beat Monica as well, and has an okay chance to beat Tyson as well (rallying the anti-Tyson vote if it exists.)

Why is she so low? Because she has to win out. I feel that she has the best chance to win at Redemption Island. But in immunity challenges I am not as confident. The Redemption Island challenges seem to have been over compensated to ensure that the women have a chance to win, and bigger men end up getting the short shrift. But the immunity challenges seem to be bette balanced with the athletic side, but also the puzzle side to them. This helps to give anybody a good chance to win, and basically makes it a 1 in 5, then 1 in 4 chance to win immunity. Her chances of winning both immunities: 1 in 20. I wouldn't take those odds myself, so I had to put her at this point.

3. Hayden

So after I give Laura the "most likely to return from Redemption Island" title, how does Hayden end up ranked higher? Simple - I think he still has room to work if he doesn't win immunity.

Let's be honest: Hayden might have played the best game ever when somebody had their back against the wall with the knowledge that he had no immunity available to him. He somehow forced a tie vote which made him immune and had the chance to flip the game in his favour, and his impassioned play to Monica to stay in the game even though she had no reason to even consider it was very effective, even if it didn't work. If he comes back? If he gets to the final 4, he can try to force another tie and rock draw, especially if Tyson is the one who would not be immune. He can sell to Monica or Gervase that this would be viewed as a big move; and that he could never win being the person saved by Redemption Island. And his story should he make Final Tribal? It's probably the one best suited to beating Tyson.

Hayden is in a surprisingly good spot for somebody who is on Redemption Island. Not like Ozzie's spot in South Pacific, but good just the same.

2. Monica

The most intriguing person on the list. She's got a very good chance to make it to the final; if she does and she's facing Tyson and Gervase, she's going to pick up the pissed off at Tyson vote.

If she makes it with somebody who's not Tyson, she can play the loyal card, the immunity challenge beast card, the mom card and the survival card. That's a pretty strong story. While I think her chances are based on how upset people are at Tyson (since I think Tyson is cruising to Final Tribal), she is in, surprisingly, a very good spot.

1. Tyson

If Tyson makes final tribal, I will be shocked if he doesn't win. Maybe he kills a puppy in front of the jury or something similarly preposterous, but given normal circumstances I think he's set up incredibly well. He's going to beat the two people he expects to be in the final with (Gervase and Monica), and still has a strong story against the other players remaining. Unless the jury is very bitter, or he gets blindsided at the final 4, Tyson is going to win this game.

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 7 Power Rankings

13. Laura B.
KISS strikes again! In this case, it's just the general principle, not the strategy. Why tell Vytas that he's going, and why tell him in front of everybody else? I undertand that Laura is an honest person, and I get her desire to be nice to Vytas, who she felt a connection with. But have some common sense. You saw what your tribe did to Kat, Laura. Why do something that puts the attention on you and your trustworthiness? You aren't the leader of the group, and you were quite content to be a follower. So to take it upon yourself to speak for the tribe was foolish at best, especially with a bunch of veterans of the game. And that's what put you in Redemption Island.

9.  Hayden

This wasn't the best of weeks for Hayden. His girlfriend lost at Redemption Island, and before that desperately wanted him to switch with her. Even after that, Kat built up Hayden, calling him a great guy, saying he had a better chance of winning the game than she did (damning with faint praise, but still) and just basically saying all of his good qualities. If Hayden wasn't on people's radar before, he is now.

But there is a silver lining for him. He seems to have joined the Tyson/Gervase anti-Baskauskas crew. That could carry him very far; if not, he'll have to play a little bit harder and try to ingrain himself into the Baskauskas brothers group.

1.  Vytas

I mean, I want to write a lot about this. I do. But I'm not sure what else is to be said beyond Vytas is a very quick learner. He's playing his brother's game, only with more aplumb. He has his tribe read, and knows what he should say to stay in the game. He also knows that he's going to have to be dishonest, and is willing to do it. He handled being told that he was going home with calm and dignity. Then he got his game on and pushed Galang to where he wanted them to go.

His big hurdle to overcome? The Gervase/Tyson block of votes. Both Baskauskas brothers can not have immunity, so the one that doesn't is the one that will be targetted first.

Overall Rankings:

20. Rupert
19. Colton
18. Rachel
17. Marissa
16. Candice
15. Brad
14. Kat

13. Laura B.
12. Laura M.
11. John
10. Monica
9.  Hayden
8.  Katie
7.  Gervase
6.  Ciera
5.  Caleb
4.  Tyson
3.  Aras
2.  Tina
1.  Vytas

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 7 thoughts

The KISS Strategy, spelled out.

"So at Tribal, I got eliminated. Apparently we had an issue with trust. Monica was feeling a little bit on the outs, and so was Laura B and that was the perfect place for Vytas to swoop in for the kill."

- Kat

Missing from that statement from Kat is an acknowledgment that Kat was the reason why Monica was feeling on the outs, and Kat was the reason why Vytas was able to swoop in. (Though it wasn't too much of a swooping. It was more of a draft behind the other birds.)

In essence, Kat was the latest to avoid the strategy that everybody who plays Survivor needs to use. I've referred to it a few times in the last season, but I think I need to spell it out a bit more.

The Keep It Simple, Stupid strategy for Survivor is as follows. Before a vote, you should only campaign against another player who is not the target of the vote in these scenarios:

1. You are the target for this vote.
2. An important ally for furthering your position in the game is the target of this vote.
3. If voting out the person you are going to campaign against would further your standing in the game considerably AND you feel as though your campaigning has a strong chance of succeeding.

(There is one other possible reason to campaign against somebody else, but that's for the advanced version of the KISS strategy.)

This should be pretty obvious, but time after time, people fall prey to the overthinking of Survivor. In Kat's case, her attempt to float Monica's name was ill advised for a few reasons, but the big one is that it failed the KISS Strategy:

1. Kat wasn't the target of the vote when she campaigned against Monica.
2. Nor was one of Kat's important allies a target - Vytas was the target.
3. From Kat's POV, voting out Monica might or might not have had a good chance of succeeding.

That's irrelevant to the fact that voting out Monica would not have improved Kat's standing the game signficantly. If anything, it would weaken it, showing herself to be untrustworthy and to weaken her alliance. In essence, the opposite of what she wants to happen.

The most important thing about the KISS Strategy is that it fits in with any other strategy that you want to play. Want to be a floater? Just follow those rules. Want to lead a tribe? Follow those rules. Want to be the second in command? Follow those rules. Want to be the athletic challenge beast? Follow those rules.

There is a downside to this strategy, in that it is vulnerable to being blindsided. But that's where your own social skills come in, and you have to rely on your instincts. KISS isn't a fail safe way to win the game, but it is the basis of any good strategy to do well in the game. In short, follow the KISS Strategy and your game will improve immensly.

 

The KISS Strategy, when you aren't preparing for tribal council

 

This is even simpler strategy to follow. When you aren't going to tribal council, follow these guidelines:

 

1. Assume that your actions are always being noticed
2. Assume that anything you tell a non-alliance member in confidence isn't truly in confidence
3. Assume that anything you tell an alliance member is in confidence, unless it is negative towards another alliance member. In that case, follow 2.
4. Never assume that you are speaking for your tribe/alliance/alliance mate unless you have been explicitly told that you can speak for them.

It's truly that simple.

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 5 Power Rankings

16. Brad

Brad Culpepper's problem in the game wasn't strategy; his moves taken in a vacuum were actually smart. Creating the all-men's alliance was just a smart read of the numbers. Reading John's actions with the immunity idol clues as untrustworthy, then adding in his loyalty to the then dominant at Redemption Island Candice and you get somebody who it might be better to take out now, rather than wait.

His thoughts on getting rid of Caleb? Also smart. Leaving a player without a loved one in the game is actually more risky, because they can make the best move for them in the game and not worry about how it will reflect on their loved one, or how their loved one will react to the player's plans.

Where Brad Culpepper went wrong is in trying to defend himself to whomever would listen. Everything that he said when combined with his actions just yelled "I am a threat to each and every one of your games. I am only loyal to you until I do not need to be." He started day 1 when he (honestly) said that He wouldn't feel that bad if Monica won a tarp if she had been suffering through a difficult time at her camp. When Marissa questioned him, he did 2 things. The first was to apologize to everybody while justifying the comment and saying "I'm going to give my all in the challenges, I swear. The second was to immediately target Marissa. The second was smart. Target the person who was questioning you. Get them before they get you. The problem is that the apology made it necessary to for Brad to target Marissa. By bringing attention to his comments, he gave Marissa more reason to attack him.

He defended himself at Redemption Island by saying that he outplayed everybody. He denied creating an all male alliance at tribal council, even though it was clear to everybody that this was in place.

When he voted John out, he came back to his camp to defend his move by saying that John shouldn't have trusted him. How exactly is his tribe supposed to feel when he declares that somebody shouldn't have trusted him? And he only compicates matters by throwing Caleb's name out, then giving too much of an honest answer about the dangers of a player without a loved one in the game. That was enough for Caleb to flip.

12. Laura B.

Laura should be held up as a cautionary tale for anybody who thinks that they could play well in a tribe consisting of them and the rest being returning players.

The biggest issue is that her actions are so transparent to these players. They've already been nervous for the first tribal council, so when Laura says that she's excited for it, they all know she is lying. When she brings up the ENTIRELY TRUTHFUL note that Monica and Laura M were not pleased to have been sitting on the bench for the immunity challenge, the other players dismiss it. They know what people do when they know they are on the bottom of the tribe; they try to stir up stuff to get other people targetted. And this is all that seemed to be. At tribal, when Laura says that she is confident she is a big part of the tribe, we get a shot of Kat rolling her eyes as if to say "You're only confident that you are a big part of the tribe because we let you be confident."

Naturally, it doesn't help that Laura can be even more awkward in the social game than her husband. How she approached the discussion about the other women wanting to play the challenge was terrible. Repeating "I just wanted to put it out there" makes it seem like that this story is something you made up. She also has the same issue that Rupert has, in that she thinks that being helpful around camp means that you are integrated with the tribe.

So all you Survivor hopefuls, hope that you end up on a season with very few (if any) returning players. It will be better for your game in the long run.

3. Vytas

We got a great view as to how strong of a player Vytas is in this episode. He is definitely cut from the same cloth as his brother, in knowing who has to be finessed, who can be played a little harder and who to just stay on the right side of.

His read on the Caleb situation is pretty close to being spot on. Caleb is going to be a threat to flip at any point and people aren't going to completely trust him. And Caleb is going to need to be coddled, so he doesn't do another crazy thing. And while his attempts to relate were laughable and/or stereotypical, it was at least a good attempt by Vytas to keep on Caleb's good side.

The only thing that Vytas read wrong? That Caleb's actions will prevent people from aligning with him in the near term. Right now the issue is numbers - if the guys alliance holds up then they have it. But all the women need to do is flip Caleb and all the sudden they have the numbers. So long as Vytas factors that in, all will be good for him. But if he forgets or ignores it, then he could be in a whole lot of trouble.

Overall Rankings

20. Rupert
19. Colton
18. Rachel
17. Marissa
16. Candice
15. Brad
14. Laura M.
13. John
12. Laura B.
11. Kat
10. Monica
9.  Hayden
8.  Katie
7.  Gervasce
6.  Ciera
5.  Caleb
4.  Tyson
3.  Vytas
2.  Tina
1.  Aras

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 5 Thoughts

One thing that Survivor does not get enough credit for is how well they lay out their episodes to drive the story in the current episode, and future stories that will pay off in subsequent episodes. So kudos to the Editors/producers who created this episode. They did a great job in building up everything for this episode and further on.

Let's start with Tadhana. We got the set up for them to actually win this challenge, with us getting to see how poorly they are off. But they also set up a future storyline, with Caleb being the swing vote and seemingly having the power go to his head. We also got insight into Vytas's gameplay and his thinking process.

Meanwhile, at Galang, we had the Laura M. boot set up from the first time we saw them. Laura saying that she felt closest to Aras, and then Aras telling us that he knows what Laura is trying to do, but he's willing to get rid of her if he needs to. Then we get a misdirect of Monica possibly going because of how tight her bond is with Brad. So when Galang loses, we don't know what direction things are going.

After the commercials, we find out. We get the Laura B set up that we all expected, then we get Aras and Laura M talking. Laura M gives a confessional about how much she trusts Aras, and then Aras gives a confessional of how he wants to vote Laura M. out so that she can beat Brad Culpepper at Redemption Island and thus make Monica more valuable to his alliance. Cue Monica reacting to the idea of sending Laura M to Redemption Island and thinking it could be a threat to her husband. We get the last words before voting at tribal council, which are Laura M. telling Laura B. that she doesn't know the sting of having Jeff snuff your torch. And finally, we get Laura M. confidently confiding in the camera as she votes out Laura B that "there is only room for one Laura on this island."

This sets up a giant blind side, with Laura M starting to realize that she is getting the boot after 2 votes, and Kat's reaction of hiding her face, trying to hid her shame in the blindside.

All in all a well laid out episode that paid off this episode, and gave us a bit more for the future.

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 3 Power Rankings

10. Brad
It is amazing to hear Hayden and John discuss Brad, as though they were brainwashed by him. They called him a great team builder, but, uh, they haven't won a challenge yet. This carried over to tribal council, where Hayden willingly jumped off the cliff to support Brad's plan to further Brad's game.

But Brad didn't think things through enough. By targetting John, he eliminated a shield and painted a target on himself. What happens next week if Tadhana loses immunity again? They'll start looking around and realize that Brad has intentionally been weakening his tribe in order to simply strengthen his position. That would make Brad an easy target.

Not only that, but Brad just pissed off somebody who's likely to come back from Redemption Island in John, but also the person who has won each Redemption Island challenge thus far in Candice. Add to that the general hatred that Galang has for Brad, and he's basically a dead man walking at this point. His best bet would be to go to Redemption Island and chill out for a while and then win his way back. At the same time, he needs to change his personality to be more humble, and more deferential. Without that deference, he won't be trusted enough to stay in the game.

6. Tyson

It was an eventful week for Tyson. He lost his girlfriend at Redemption Island, he put Brad on notice that he was going to be a target should a swap or merge happen, and he hurt his shoulder in a challenge.

That hurt shoulder is going to be a problem for Tyson, but maybe not as much as you would think. We saw in Heroes vs. Villains the Heroes decide to keep James, who had a mangled knee over Tom, who was completely healthy but was out of favour in his tribe. Tyson is in a strong alliance right now. Unless that alliance feels as though they are in trouble going forward in challenges, they will stay with Tyson. And should he make a merge? That shoulder injury is going to take away the bigger targets on his back. There are going to be bigger immunity threats to get rid of, and it might be enough to carry Tyson to final tribal.

3. Vytas
1. Aras

Aras always comes across as a calm, cool and collected person. He owns a business, and is always willing to help somebody out, to offer encouraging words, and to want serenity around him. That made his desire to beat his brother Vytas even more startling.  But his explanation made sense - Vytas was the bully of the brothers, the one who was willing to torture his little brother. What made it interesting was the juxtaposition with Vytas's view of the rivalry between the brothers.

Vytas wanted to win as well, but for different reasons. He wanted to prove that he wasn't a screw up, and that he was just as good as Aras. His brother was the athlete in college; the one who had his life together. Vytas was the junkie, and this competition was his opportunity to show that he was as good as his brother.

The battle itself seemed like it was scripted by Vince McMahon. The brother looking to avenge himself against his bully brother (Aras) had the upper hand, but the other brother (Vytas) was stubbornly holding on. Aras told his brother to reset, so they could continue to have an honorable battle, one that should Aras win, would prove his superiority to his bully brother. But Vytas had a trick up his sleeve, and lived up to the sneaky, bully label that Aras gave him. Vytas attacked Aras instead of resetting like Aras offered. But Aras battled back, and eventually knocked Vytas from the floating surface and Aras won the game.

In this microcosm, we got to see what the Aras/Vytas rivalry was based on, and why Aras would come back. Aras didn't have to prove that he was a great Survivor player; his victory had already shown that. But Aras did have to prove that he could beat his brother. The immunity challenge on tonight's show was a giant step to proving this.

Overall Rankings

20. Rupert
19. Colton
18. Rachel

17. Marissa
16. Candice
15. John
14. Laura B.
13. Laura M.
12. Kat
11. Katie
10. Brad
9.  Caleb
8.  Gervasce
7.  Ciera
6.  Tyson
5.  Hayden
4.  Monica
3.  Vytas
2.  Tina
1.  Aras

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 3 Thoughts

Quitters are terrible

We're all agreed that we're done with Colton, right?

I'll admit that I was intrigued with Colton coming back. It had been 2 years since he played last; maybe he had matured and improved his game. Sure enough, I was wrong.

What he said right before Redemption Island was most telling: "Unless you have people who are willing to roll with you, there isn't a lot you can do." As a fan of Survivor, he has to know how wrong he is. If you don't have people who are willing to roll with you, you can't directly control the game. That doesn't mean that you are out of the game, it means that you are not the leader. Heck, it wouldn't be too hard for you to flip on your tribe come the merge, so long as you are willing to be patient, and put your faith in others. That, ultimately, was Colton's downfall.

He had one way of playing - bullying people and getting his way. When he met resistance to that, he decided to quit instead of adapting. That's a sign of the immaturity that he had during One World, and continued on to here. It's a sign of a desperate person who doesn't have the acumen to adapt, to

Colton hasn't grown. He hasn't truly reflected on his One World experience and figured out how to better himself from it (superficial changes to any bigotry he might have demonstrated in the past aside.) He's still the same spoiled brat who can't handle when things do not go his way, and would rather remove himself from a difficult situation than try to fight throw it, even if fighting throw it means failure. Colton doesn't want to fail above all else; he doesn't want to have to confront knowing that his best wasn't good enough during this game. He'd rather leave believing a lie, that he is a good strategist in the game of Survivor, then to have it proven wrong and have to learn from it.

If he gets cast again on Survivor, then CBS or the executive producers have made a huge mistake. Colton doesn't deserve another chance; he's proven that he doesn't respect the game or himself enough to have the honour to play again.

(FWIW, Jeff Probst handled this as he had to. If he wanted to continue to hold the respect of the audience and continue to be their voice in the game, he had to lay into Colton as he did.)

And with the negative out of the way...

The stupidest blind side ever?

That isn't as crazy as it sounds.  What purpose did blind siding John serve? It weakened the tribe due to the fear that John has an immunity idol. How does that make sense?

I get how it makes sense for Cierra as she was blatently told that she would be voted out if John wasn't. If I stretch, I can understand why it would make sense for Katie. By voting out John, she can put an emphasis on Brad next should they fail. That would protect her (and Cierra.) But Hayden and Vytas? It makes no sense for them. They had a solid 5 person alliance. And now their alliance is 4, they've pissed off two people at Redemption Island who are most likely to return and they made their tribe significantly weaker.  Bravo gents.

Really, Tadhana is following the same path as the fans from last season, and could use some sort of tribal switch to happen soon. Otherwise, they are going to remain an also ran in challenges and they will continue to get picked off one by one, until a merge comes and they get destroyed by the returning players.

Tadhana, you had a chance to see what happened to the fans last year when they played the game to keep one player's game strong. That person got to the end and then lost, but everybody else lost, and lost horribly. You still have time to stop this, but you need to unite against your common cause (in this case, Brad.) Thus far, we have not seen anything that would indicate they are capableo f switching mid-stream.

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 2 Power Rankings

19. Colton

Colton's behaviour seems to be a byproduct of the Blood vs. Water twist. If I had to guess, one of the main reasons why he agreed to play again was that he was going to be able to play along side Caleb. He seems to truly adore Caleb, and he draws strength from him. So when he was split from Caleb, Colton became more emotional, and more unstable. Initially it manifested itself in the way of crying, but as time went on, it became boredom and finally an excuse to bring back the old Colton. I wonder if Colton and Caleb were brought back together if we would see a more jovial Colton. We won't see it though, because Colton has guaranteed his boot as soon as possible, which he should have seen coming.

When Colton reverted back to his old ways, he seemed to be more confident in his place in the tribe. He thought he was pulling one over on the tribe. But he forgot that the majority of his tribe mates have played the game before, and that they are aware of what Colton did in the past. They know what a destructive force he can be if he is left unchecked, so they will do whatever they need to in order to keep the peace, including voting Colton out. They won't care if Caleb switches spots with him; that weakens Tadhana in multiple ways. So it's an easy decision for them.

What isn't clear is why Colton didn't see this coming. He's a fan of Survivor; he knows what happened to Russell Hantz the third time he played the game. Maybe he thought that it would be like Russell's second time playing, when on Heroes vs. Villains Russell was able to run the exact same game. But that ignores a key fact: none of the players had seen Russell play before. They weren't prepared for his onslaught. When they were prepared, Russell was the first one to go. This is the same situation that Colton is in, but he ignored the obvious signs that this would not work for him. That makes this season a tragic one for Colton, not a redemptive one.

10. John

John had a very bad week, though I don't think he knows just how bad it was. Much like Colton's change could be traced back to Caleb, John's bad week can be traced back to his love for Candace, and hers for him.

Getting the hidden immunity idol clue isn't in and of itself a bad thing. It leads to an immunity idol, which is never a bad thing.  But what you do with the power of the clue can be a bad thing. What John did was very close to stupid. He has a majority alliance, but chose not to share with them the clue or anything related to an immunity idol.

Wishing that Rachel would not go to Redemption Island is understandable. If the plan works, and Tyson to switches with Rachel, that would make things look bad for Candace. But it's another thing entirely to try to convince people to not vote out Rachel because she's strong. That argument might have worked if they hadn't already voted out Marissa, who was strong as well. John needed a better argument and he had none. That's why Rachel is at Redemption Island.

These two things combine into a massive amount of distrust of John, and worries that he might have the idol already makes him ripe for a blindside. Until John realizes how much danger he is in, he can't correct his actions. And once he does realize the danger he is in, it could still not be enough.

3. Tina

Tina has found her Colby this season, and it's Aras. The pairing is a natural one, as they are the only winners to return to the game. Tina's experience in All-Stars also informs her thinking here, as she was targetted immediately because she was a winner. But the way that they were able to make a majority alliance quickly and subtlely was quite the accomplishment.

Why is this alliance going to succeed, even when the Brigade 2.0 is flailing? First and foremost, there is no leader to this alliance. While I am comfortable in saying that Aras will probably be viewed as the leader, he is not actually leading the alliance. Until they have gotten rid of Colton, there is an agreement in the alliance that there isn't much more to discuss.

What I predict is going to happen is that Tina and Aras will figure out their best move, and then encourage their alliance mates to agree on that best move, even if it isn't the best move. And that will carry on until Tina and Aras are in the final tribal with each other.

The full power ranking list:

20. Rupert

19. Colton
18. Marissa
17. Candice
16. Rachel
15. Laura B
14. Laura M.
13. Kat
12. Katie
11. Gervasce
10. John
9.  Brad
8.  Ciera
7.  Monica
6.  Caleb
5.  Tyson
4.  Hayden
3.  Tina
2.  Vytas
1.  Aras

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 2 Thoughts

Being true to yourself
 
While listening to this week's "The Right Reasons" podcast (from the Grantland network), David Jacoby made an interesting statement in reference to Brad Culpepper:

"You will always act as who you are no matter how much you want to act differently."

It's a valid thought based on what we've seen of Brad. He knows that he shouldn't take the lead of a tribe; more often than not you will be voted out, especially if you are an alpha male and challenge threat. But once he got to the island, he reverted back to his old ways. He became the alpha male, and took charge of his tribe. Heck, he even created a team of fellow alpha males. He couldn't help himself.

If you can see this happening with Culpepper, you can see it even more in the returning players. Our most obvious example is Colton.

Colton came in to the game say ing all the right things. He wanted this to be a season of redemption for himself, one that would change America's opinion of him. He was going to play the game differently, and was going to leave his jerk and bullying ways behind.

Three days later he was bored and so he decided that he needed chaos. Colton was conscious of the fact that the best thing for his game was to stay calm, move slowly in the game, and not antagonize anybody unnecesarily. But he couldn't help himself; he had to do something to break the monotony in order to feel better. So he did what he does best, and pushed people around while accusing them of trying to turn on each other. It was his dream.

Unfortunately for him, the other players haven't changed either, and they came into the game knowing who they are and what sort of Survivor player they are. Aras prefers to play a laid back game. He doesn't want chaos or any sort of conflict, knowing that a calm camp is an easily controlled camp. Monica knows first hand what Colton's chaos plan can cause; she fell victim to it in One World. And Tyson is well aware of what somebody can do to a tribe is they are allowed to bring chaos into your tribe, having played and fallen victim to Russell Hantz.

One of the reasons why the returning players are at an advantage is that the have played before, and know what sort of player they are. They also know what kind of players they are playing with, and know how to react to them. Colton is learning this lesson the hard way.

The effect of the playing against a loved one

When the main twist for the season was announced, it was dismissed as a gimmicky way to bring back previous players. It would end up being a boring season where two already established pairs would make it to the end. In the first two weeks though, we have seen that this twist is going to have a major impact on how the game is played, and for the better.

The most obvious way the twist has impacted the game is how the ability to replace your loved one at Redemption Island has already cost a player. I had already predicted doom for Rupert; his play wasn't even close to smart for allowing Laura to make it much further in the game, and it aborted his game unexpectedly. Now he has no game left, though Laura seems to have rebounded somewhat well.

We also Marissa head to Redemption Island apparently because of her loved one, but that was not by her choice. Gervasce's reaction to winning the first challenge was to gloat about it, and taunt Tadhana. Tadhana took this as a reflection on Marissa, and voted her into Redemtpion Island as revenge.

There are also subtle ways that this is affecting the game. We saw an interesting strategy used by Tadhana when they were faced with having to vote out one of their own. They chose who to vote out based on who would be most likely replaced in Redemption Island by their loved one, and who would end up weakening Galang the most. They landed on Rachel because they felt that Tyson was most likely to make the switch, and his loss would weaken Galang signficantly. It was an outside the box method to look at the twist, and it migh tbe one that works to Tadhana's advantage.

And of course, there is John. John is still distraught over not stepping up and taking his wife Candace's place. But he was also the beneficiary of Candace winning the Redemption Island challenge, and received a clue to a hidden immunity idol. You could see him trying to find a way to keep Rachel, wanting to give Candace an easier opportunity to survive so she can come back into the game.

As Jeff said at tribal council, this might be the most difficult season to decide on a vote. There are many more factors to consider when deciding who you want to vote out. It has provided many good moments already, and promises to provide more.

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 1 Power Rankings

(I'm going use a new format for this season's power rankings. It is blatantly stolen from Jonah Keri's The 30 column, so all credit to him.)

20. Rupert
19. Laura B.

I had them in the Least Likely to Win category in my brief preview, and this hasn't changed. Laura was voted out by Tadhana, and was only saved by her husband's incessant need to play the hero. I'm surprised it took Rupert as long as it did for him to jump to take his wife's place at Redemption Island; the two seconds it took was about one second more than I expected.

Let's be clear: Rupert made a huge mistake. Not only did his tribe expect to be playing with him, they weren't expecting to play with his wife. It made Laura an easy target for first boot from Galang: she's the outsider with no experience in the game. As well, it would eliminate one pair immediately. But Rupert values his image of a dedicated, nice guy who stands up for what's right.

That's what makes the edit he's receiving so interesting. You know that he wants to be perceived as the ultimate hero, much like he was after Pearl Islands. However, the producers seem to be dedicated to showing him in the worst light possible, continuing a story that has been happening since All-Stars. It's the story of a man whose actions are increasingly more "evil," though to him the actions are truly virtuous. Rupert is convinced of the righteousness of his actions, and with that we get to see him as the villain he is becoming. Kudos to the producers and editors for keeping this story together for 3 seasons.

16. Gervasce

What a terrible episode for Gervasce. Like almost making him the best goat to bring to the end level performance. He shows that his water performance from the first season did not cause him to improve his swimming skills, plus his cardio level has been hurt after 13 years of Survivor inactivity. And then, once Galang wins the challenge, he acts as though it was the greatest thing ever. His taunting of Tadhana was over the top and definitely on commiserate to his performance in the challenge. And his actions caused his niece to be voted out of the game and into Redemption Island. So in short Gervasce:

• Showed himself to be weak in challenges,
• pissed off potential jurors
• and cause his best ally in the game to be voted out.

Stellar job Gervasce! Will you follow up next week by setting the immunity idol ablaze in some sort of pre challenge ritual a la a bon fire before a big high school football game?

11. Brad

I don't wish to really pick on Brad's intelligence; after Jeff Probst's tweets about him suffering brain damage from playing football it feels too much like piling on. With that said, I don't know that Brad has watched that much Survivor, regardless of his ability to recall recent history.

When trying to get together the all bro alliance, he referenced that Survivor winners are now "weak women, and John Cochran." He made this point many times, which was odd since if you look back on the last few seasons, you don't find that many weak women:

Previous winners (in reverse order):

Survivor 26 - John Cochran
Survivor 25 - Denise Staley
Survivor 24 - Kim Spradlin
Survivor 23 - Sophie Clarke
Survivor 22 - Rob Mariano
Survivor 21 - Fabio

From that list, I guess you could consider Denise a "weak woman" in a literal sense. She wasn't that big of an immunity threat I suppose. But Kim Spradlin? And Sophie Clarke, destroyer of challenge king Ozzie? Not to mention Boston Rob or Fabio (who won because he was able to win immunity into the final tribal.)

And not only that, but Brad made a rookie mistake when he spoke from his heart when the tribes were first put together. What he said wasn't that bad; it essentially said that he would have felt bad about winning an item that he knew his wife Monica could use at her camp. But that could have been interpreted as him saying that he would throw a challenge to his wife's tribe and throwing challenges never goes over well unless there's a maniacal plot behind it (that will ultimately bite you in the ass). So Brad decided that he should make sure that nobody was thinking that he was going to throw a challenge, which was a good idea. Unfortunately his speech came across as insincere and did not involve an actual apology, which lead his tribe to trust him even less. His own alliance mate Caleb was ready to turn on him as soon as possible.

Brad seems like a nice guy, but he's in a whole heap of trouble and might end up being blind sided if he's not careful. But he's confessional gold, so the producers will make sure we see a lot of him up until he is voted out.

The full power ranking list:

20. Rupert
19. Laura B
18. Marissa
17. Candice
16. Colton
15. Laura M.
14. Kat
13. Katie
12. Gervasce
11. Brad
10. Ciera
9.  Monica
8.  Rachel
7.  Caleb
6.  Tyson
5.  Tina
4.  Hayden
3.  John
2.  Aras
1.  Vytas

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 1 Thoughts

Generally speaking, there are two rules when it comes to seasons with both returning players and new players, there are two rules that hold true:

1. At least one returning player will make it to final tribal council
2. When there are equal number of returning players and new players, a returning player will win.

1) is an absolute truth thus far; in every season where there have been returning players and new players, at least one returning player has made it to final tribal. It's pretty obvious why this would be. Returning players have the experience of having played before, and thus have made the rookie mistakes that come with playing for the first time. They also know what worked for them, and what did not. They can adjust their play from the start, instead of having to try to adjust on the fly.

2) is pretty truthful as well. In a fans vs. favorites season, a favorite has won both times. Of course, that is a sample size of a whopping 2. But at the same time, when only two or three players are returning, the returning players record is mixed.

This season might cause 2) to be broken.

I think part of why the favorites have won both half and half seasons is because the returning players end up separated from the new players, and that makes the new players still have a sense of awe when around the returning players. In turn, this leads to the new players deferring to the returning players whenever possible in the game, and especially when the merge occurs. (As an added bonus, the returning players tend to have an advantage in the challenges, and then have the numbers when a merge occurs.) When there's only one returning player to a tribe, they are more likely to either be integrated into the tribe, or to be ostracized from the tribe. Either way, there is less of an awe factor for those players.

This season's main twist of loved ones being on he show should take some of the awe away. The loved ones have experienced at least some of the insanity of Survivor. They're not likely to just defer to any Survivor player. They might defer to their loved one, but that's about it. They're also likely to try to make a move on the Survivor players, having lived in the shadows of their Survivor playing loved one. And add in the ability to switch players in and out of tribes, and you get new players being very comfortable with returnees very quickly, which will lead to less following, and more independent game play.

And all of that is a good thing for this season.





Some Other First Episode Thoughts

We got the expected edit, where the returning players showed their competence at the game and being able to make fire, build a shelter, etc. What was surprising is that it actually carried on to the immunity challenge, when the returning players (sorry, Galang), came back from a huge deficit to win the challenge by solving a puzzle very quickly. It really was a demonstration of both side's strengths; Tadhana showing their physical prowess by dominating the water course, while Galang showing that they can stay calm and also think back to some tricks they would have used in other challenges. The question that remains is whether this is the going to be the dominant story a la Fans vs. Favorites 2 (complete with the subtext of a Favorite player edging closer and closer to the deep end,) or if this is just a one off and Tadhana can get their stuff together.

One thing that wasn't so surprising was the five guys of Tadhana sticking together to vote out a woman. Still, Marissa getting the boot was a bit of a surprise - she seems like she could help the tribe in challenges. With that said, I don't know how much of a mistake it was to vote her out. Ultimately, the Brigade 2.0 (over/under on when Hayden mentions the word "Brigade" on an episode? I say Episode 3) don't really care which woman they get rid of, much like the fans from last season didn't care who went from the minority 4 person cool kid alliance. In then end, it will be the core 5 person alliance left standing, and they will do whatever they need to do to survive from that point forward. So while Katie might have made more sense to get rid of, I don't think the Brigade is thinking that way. They're just saying "We're the strongest, and we'll carry everybody else."  That's a refreshing way to look at the game, but it's probably a losing strategy as well.