Thursday, September 26, 2013

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 2 Power Rankings

19. Colton

Colton's behaviour seems to be a byproduct of the Blood vs. Water twist. If I had to guess, one of the main reasons why he agreed to play again was that he was going to be able to play along side Caleb. He seems to truly adore Caleb, and he draws strength from him. So when he was split from Caleb, Colton became more emotional, and more unstable. Initially it manifested itself in the way of crying, but as time went on, it became boredom and finally an excuse to bring back the old Colton. I wonder if Colton and Caleb were brought back together if we would see a more jovial Colton. We won't see it though, because Colton has guaranteed his boot as soon as possible, which he should have seen coming.

When Colton reverted back to his old ways, he seemed to be more confident in his place in the tribe. He thought he was pulling one over on the tribe. But he forgot that the majority of his tribe mates have played the game before, and that they are aware of what Colton did in the past. They know what a destructive force he can be if he is left unchecked, so they will do whatever they need to in order to keep the peace, including voting Colton out. They won't care if Caleb switches spots with him; that weakens Tadhana in multiple ways. So it's an easy decision for them.

What isn't clear is why Colton didn't see this coming. He's a fan of Survivor; he knows what happened to Russell Hantz the third time he played the game. Maybe he thought that it would be like Russell's second time playing, when on Heroes vs. Villains Russell was able to run the exact same game. But that ignores a key fact: none of the players had seen Russell play before. They weren't prepared for his onslaught. When they were prepared, Russell was the first one to go. This is the same situation that Colton is in, but he ignored the obvious signs that this would not work for him. That makes this season a tragic one for Colton, not a redemptive one.

10. John

John had a very bad week, though I don't think he knows just how bad it was. Much like Colton's change could be traced back to Caleb, John's bad week can be traced back to his love for Candace, and hers for him.

Getting the hidden immunity idol clue isn't in and of itself a bad thing. It leads to an immunity idol, which is never a bad thing.  But what you do with the power of the clue can be a bad thing. What John did was very close to stupid. He has a majority alliance, but chose not to share with them the clue or anything related to an immunity idol.

Wishing that Rachel would not go to Redemption Island is understandable. If the plan works, and Tyson to switches with Rachel, that would make things look bad for Candace. But it's another thing entirely to try to convince people to not vote out Rachel because she's strong. That argument might have worked if they hadn't already voted out Marissa, who was strong as well. John needed a better argument and he had none. That's why Rachel is at Redemption Island.

These two things combine into a massive amount of distrust of John, and worries that he might have the idol already makes him ripe for a blindside. Until John realizes how much danger he is in, he can't correct his actions. And once he does realize the danger he is in, it could still not be enough.

3. Tina

Tina has found her Colby this season, and it's Aras. The pairing is a natural one, as they are the only winners to return to the game. Tina's experience in All-Stars also informs her thinking here, as she was targetted immediately because she was a winner. But the way that they were able to make a majority alliance quickly and subtlely was quite the accomplishment.

Why is this alliance going to succeed, even when the Brigade 2.0 is flailing? First and foremost, there is no leader to this alliance. While I am comfortable in saying that Aras will probably be viewed as the leader, he is not actually leading the alliance. Until they have gotten rid of Colton, there is an agreement in the alliance that there isn't much more to discuss.

What I predict is going to happen is that Tina and Aras will figure out their best move, and then encourage their alliance mates to agree on that best move, even if it isn't the best move. And that will carry on until Tina and Aras are in the final tribal with each other.

The full power ranking list:

20. Rupert

19. Colton
18. Marissa
17. Candice
16. Rachel
15. Laura B
14. Laura M.
13. Kat
12. Katie
11. Gervasce
10. John
9.  Brad
8.  Ciera
7.  Monica
6.  Caleb
5.  Tyson
4.  Hayden
3.  Tina
2.  Vytas
1.  Aras

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