Friday, May 14, 2010

Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains Episode 13 Thoughts

The end is upon us. After 3 months of episodes that gave us continuous shock and awe, the finale is on Sunday. I'm sad about this as this season has probably been the best since the original. I don't say that lightly; many seasons have been declared best ever, only to end up not living up to the title after the finale. The only way that this season will not hold up is if the winner is chosen by purple rock.

With the finale right around the corner, we witnessed the dreams of victory ended for two more players. Rupert, who was voted out tonight is out of the running (and his delusions of winning finally destroyed), and Russell, who's stock has been plummetting for weeks, lost his final chance to win the $1 million when Rupert was voted out. Rupert's loss means that there is only one player Russell could possibly beat in Colby. Since it seems like final tribal council is going to be a final three, I can not coe up with a scenario where Russell would get enough votes to win (at an absolute minimum, 4).

With that said, let's bust out a power ranking headed into the finale. Listed along with the player is the ideal final three configuration for them to win.

5. Russell. Final three - Colby and Jerri

As I mentioned above, I can not fathom a way that Russell wins. My final three choices of Colby and Jerri make an assumption that Russell plays the "outwit" card continually, and gets another one or two immuniy wins. It then further assumes that Jerri and Colby split 5 votes between themselves in a 3-2 manner, with JT, Parvati, Amanda and Candice voting for Russell to win. Even that is very difficult to map out, as I see it being a 4-4-1, with Rupert holding the lone vote for Colby. There is a chance that Danielle would vote for Colby over Jerri, which would be the swing to give Russell the win, but I don't see it happening.

4. Colby. Final three - Russell and Jerri

Colby is in the same situation as Jerri and Russell. If Parvati or Sandra make the final three, they are very likely to win. If both make the final three, you are likely to end up with no votes. So Colby needs to bring Russell along, assuming that he will not get any jury votes. He then needs to get more votes than Jerri, which while difficult, is not insurmountable. He would need a really good tribal council, while Jerri had an Amanda like performance. Given Jerri's relative instability at times, it's a possibility.

3. Jerri. Final three - Russell and Colby

It's boring to repeat, but Jerri/Russell/Colby is a final three that conceivably gives all three player a chance to win the game. It mkes so much sense for them to team up and take out Parvati and Sandra that is extremely unlikely to occur. What's funny is that Jerri is the most likely to win that final three, but she is also most likely to stay loyal to her original alliance and not flip to a new one.

With that said, I have been impressed with how Jerri played thus far. She's actually thinking strategically, and making the moves that benefit her the most in the long term. While she's saying that Russell pressured her into voting Danielle, the fact is that by getting rid of Danielle, Jerri has soldified her spot in that allance. It's been interesting to watch Jerri turn into a player to be concerned with. I wonder if her tribe has caught up?

2. Sandra. Final three - Russell and Jerri

Sandra has completely righted her ship and is now pointed towards a strong chance at winning the $1 million. The downside o her play is that her moves have been more subtle, and it might be difficult for her to explain. So instead of bringing Colby along, she brngs Jerri, who seemed less strategic than Sandra. Add in the hated Russell and this is her best chance to win. It now comes down to whether Sandra can make the final three without including Parvati in it.

1. Parvati. Final three - Russell and Colby

This game is Parvati's to lose. She probably needs to win immunity in the next two competitions, but if she can do that, she is gold and most likely to win the game. Otherwise, she is going to be targetted and then voted out. Russell and Colby is her bath of least resistance, but any combination of Russell, Colby and Jerri should guarantee Parvati the win.

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