2006 Baseball Predictions

Pretending that last night this morning's game did not count, today is opening day for Major League Baseball.  And just in time, here are my predictions/thoughts about the upcoming season.

NL East

Projected order of finish:

1.      Atlanta

·       Another year, another division title for Atlanta.  After all these years, they have earned the right to be the default choice to win the NL East, barring a divisional realignment. 

2.      New York Mets

·       The Mets have improved their hitting, and David Wright is still improving.  With that said, their puzzling trades of Jae Seo and Kris Benson, along with their shunning of Aaron Heilman to the bullpen makes me wonder if they have the pitching to overtake Atlanta.

3.      Philadelphia

·       Philadelphia has made some significant changes to their roster:  losing Jim Thome, Billy Wagner and Jason Michaels.  Ryan Howard and Brett Myers are going to have to step up for Philly to stand a chance to contend.

4.      Washington

·       Best of luck to the former Expos - they are just lucky that they have Florida to act as a cushion for their fall.

5.      Florida

·       They might have it right - win the World Series, then break up the team and start over again.  If you can get odds for the 2008 or 2009 World Series, buy Florida now!

NL Central

Projected order of finish:

1.      St. Louis

·       One of the cool trends this year seems to be predicting the downfall of the Cards.  I don't know why; their team hasn't changed enough, and they still have Albert Pujols.

2.      Milwaukee

·       And the trendy pick for darkhorse contender is...the Brewers!  (I can honestly say that I was ahead of the curve on this one - I have a 60-1 bet placed on them to win the 2006 World Series...placed after game one of the 2005 World Series).  They have a lot of youth (Fielder/Weekes/Hardy/Hall is one of the youngest infields in the majors), and they've added some pitching to their hitting prospects.  I don't know if that's good enough to make the playoffs, but it makes them one of the more interesting teams to watch.

3.      Houston

·       Last year's NL champions have lost Roger Clemens, which I think will be a bigger blow than anybody is expecting.

4.      Cincinnati

·       I was a lot more positive when they had Wily Mo Pena instead of another flyball pitcher and an outfield of Dunn/Junior/Kearns.  Pena>Hatteberg offensively as well.  But I almost feel safe in getting my Cincy Dunn jersey.  Almost.

5.      Pittsburgh

·       For every one step forward they make, they take two steps back.  Sean Casey and Joe Randa are not the answers to anything.

6.      Chicago Cubs

·       Carlos Zambrano and Derrek Lee notwithstanding, the Cubs are not going anywhere without a healthy Prior and Wood.

NL West

Projected order of finish:

1.      Los Angeles

·       Furcal and Nomar are enough to push them over the top in the weakest division in the majors.

2.      San Diego

·       Piazza can't replace Ramon Hernandez, and the addition of Brazelton is not enough to push them over the top.  Jake Peavy could be the best pitcher in the NL though.

3.      Arizona

·       Watch out for them in 2007.  They just need some good young pitching to go with Jackson/Quintana/Drew/Upton.

4.      San Francisco

·       Barry Bonds will hit 45 homers this year.  But watching an outfield with Bonds and Finley should be entertaining in the same way a circus is.

5.      Colorado

·       Do they even have a plan for the future?  Have they even figured out how to win in Coors?  There is no proof in their team this year.

NL Wildcard:  Milwaukee
NL Championship:  St. Louis over Milwaukee

AL West

Projected order of finish:

1.      Oakland

·       This year seems to be Oakland's year.  Then again, they have been saying this since 2002.

2.      Anaheim

·       Garrett Anderson and Darin Erstad continue to decline offensively and this is finally the year when it catches up to them.  Or not.

3.      Texas

·       Welcome to the AL West - the two tiered division.  There is a clear divide between the top two teams and the bottom two teams, but the top two teams are very close in skills, and the bottom two teams are very close in skills.  Texas could easily blow up, as the pitching they added are not necessarily suited for pitching in Texas.  But the offense they added could push them to near record totals for runs scored.

4.      Seattle

·       Felix is the King of Seattle in 2006; in 2007 he will be the uber-King of the world.

AL Central

Projected order of finish

1.      Cleveland

·       Set aside their choke job - this is a young team that won 90 games last year.  They will be better.

2.      Chicago White Sox

·       They are better than a lot of stat-head prognosticators give them credit for being, but they have a couple of question marks with their pitching (Vaszquez and Jenks, specifically).  Throw in their reliance on hitting homers to create offense (no matter what the media says), and I think they are edged out of first.

3.      Detroit

·       Meet the new AL hotness.  They would be better served to try to contend in 2007 though.

4.      Minnesota

·       They have the next Johan Santana in Francisco Liriano, which goes well with the actual Johan Santana.  But most of the division has passed them by, and their reliance on guys like Shannon Stewart will hurt them.

5.      Kansas City

·       Soon Alex Gordon and Billy Butler will be in Kauffman Park.  Until then, I feel bad for any Royals fans.

AL East

Projected order of finish

1.      New York Yankees

·       The end of a dynasty.  Their pitching is mediocre but that offense is still really good.  2007 is not going to be their year though.

2.      Toronto

·       I'm going out on a limb on this one.  I think that Burnett+Ryan+Overbay+Glaus > Beckett+Lowell+Alex Gonzalez+ Coco Crisp.

3.      Boston

·       Why I'm not picking them:  All of Schilling, Beckett, Wells, Lowell and Foulke need to return to their previous level of pitching, while the bullpen improves.

4.      Tampa Bay

·       Out of the basement for good, their young team is about 2 pitchers away from being really scary.

5.      Baltimore

·       They are in between their rebuilding mode and their attempt to contend on last time.  2007 should bring the rebuilding effort to the forefront.

AL Wildcard:  Toronto
AL Champion:  Oakland over New York

World Series Champion:  Oakland over St. Louis