Survivor Panama Episode 5 Thoughts

Ain't I smart. I will never predict the doom of a tribe again. First Casaya decides to defy my prediction of their defeat by dominating. Then, after I have written off La Mina, they decide that they will actually win an immunity challenge. So that's it no more predictions of doom.

Bobby and Bruce weren't exactly the smartest knifes in the shed. Or they just don't care about the game any longer. Drinking the wine without anybody else knowing guaranteed that one of them would be gone as soon as possible. But they weren't the only ones not thinking.

Shane was afraid of Aras flipping with Bobby after the merge, which is valid. But he wanted to get rid of Bobby, and not Aras. The girls use this to "flip the game" not realizing that this would only cause a tie, with Bruce the woodsman facing Bobby the lawyer. And Shane decides to play with the group, even after presented the opportunity to get rid of Bobby for a second time. But why didn't he counter with Aras instead of sticking with Bruce? That kills the "young guy" alliance theory, and gets rid of somebody who was growing to be a bigger liability than first anticipated and is also a challenge threat. Makes life a whole lot simpler, no? (Especially if you consider that Shane ended up voting for Aras. Then again, the way the vote came out, Shane got his desired ending)

Speaking of Aras, that might have been the worst tribal council performance since Lillith of Pearl Islands. There's something to be said when what you say at tribal council causes somebody to flip to voting for you. And it's pretty close to "what the hell are you doing?!?!" If Aras ends up losing the game, he needs to look back to this as the first spot where it began to fall apart.

On to the list:

Most likely to win:

1. Terry (Last week - 1)
2. Danielle (Last week - 3)
3. Austin (Last week - 5)
4. Nick (Last week - 7)
5. Aras (Last week - 4)
6. Sally (Last week - 8)
7. Cirie (Last week - 11)
8. Bruce (Last week - 2)
9. Courtney (Last week - 6)
10. Dan (Last week - 10)
11. Shane (Last week - 12)

As for the burning question of who goes this week - Sally or Bruce.

With the merge coming up very soon (as soon as next week), voting priorites swing. It is not as important to think of who will best help your tribe survive, but instead you need to consider who will most likely hinder your chance of winning the game. Both Bruce and Sally are immunity threats and both are on the outside of the dominant 4 person alliances that exist in their tribes. Bruce is also disliked by his tribe over the wine incident, while Sally is viewed as a possible threat to flip after the merge. I hate to say it, because I like both of them, but it makes the most sense.