Survivor: Caramoan Finale Burning Questions and thoughts

A new format for the finale, as I steal from Bill Simmons and use his "Questions about" format for this finale!

Did Erik's removal really affect the game?

No. I actually had to wait to make sure that Cochran won before answering this, because if Dawn won I could see there being an argument that it did affect things (since she wouldn't have had to get her hands even more bloody.)

How often did you rewind your PVR to listen to Eddie's explanation as to why he wanted to win a million dollars?

About a thousand times. I mean, read this:
"if I do win the million dollars, I want to open like a, like a, dog shelter kennel playpen area, like attached to a bar. Like those are my two favorite things - I like dogs and I like bars. So if I can open like a bar and you can bring your dog there, that'd be unbelievable."

And then read it again:
"if I do win the million dollars, I want to open like a, like a, dog shelter kennel playpen area, like attached to a bar. Like those are my two favorite things - I like dogs and I like bars. So if I can open like a bar and you can bring your dog there, that'd be unbelievable."

One more time:
"if I do win the million dollars, I want to open like a, like a, dog shelter kennel playpen area, like attached to a bar. Like those are my two favorite things - I like dogs and I like bars. So if I can open like a bar and you can bring your dog there, that'd be unbelievable."

And that isn't even the most Eddie-est thing that Eddie ever said! How can somebody who jumped in when Erik went down and acted like a seasoned EMT then come along and say something like that?
In all seriousness, the editors did mess up on that though. You can tell that the first part of that lead-in (about wanting to convince Cochran to take him instead of Dawn to the final three) wasn't said at the same time as Eddie's desire to create a bar with a dog playpen attached.

(Oh, and don't think I'm not looking into a bar with a dog playpen idea.)

Did Cochran get an unfair advantage in the final immunity?

I have to say no. Just going by results, he had more time to figure it out, but hadn't even begun to until everybody else was working on theirs. So let's consider the more abstract question:

Should there be advantages in final immunity challenges?

I'm opposed to specific advantages in immunity challenges. That is completely unfair for such an important event. Let's set aside that it didn't work for Malcolm, and didn't seem to have a huge benefit for Cochran. Just having that advantage is a bit unfair in the first place.

I'm not opposed to the advantage that Terri from Cook Islands had going into the final challenge - it was abstract enough that it wouldn't have a direct impact on the final challenge, but I could understand where it would help. That might be the better answer.

Did you have a problem with Eddie and Erik's questions to Sherri?

Not that much. I get that the sources of the question were kinda ironic (to put it mildly). But at the same time, the jury either had no clue as to what Sherri did or knew what she did and was biased against it because it hurt their game. At the very least somebody had to ask it to give Sherri a chance to make her argument.

Does Sherri understand what was happening at Final Tribal?

Now, yes. But when it was happening? Not a chance. I don't know if she was destroyed by the jury before Erik's vote, or if she really didn't want to deal with the perception that she was a floater, but she shut down anything that Erik might have said which might have helped her. And to do it to Erik? That was terrible.

Honestly, I think she overestimated her game play, and underestimated how much the jury did not respect her game play. Her story was basically "I lead an alliance which got me to the merge, and then got in with the favourites." The problem (which I don't think that she grasped) was that her arguments were easily countered by the jury. She lead an alliance on a tribe that was dominated by the favourites, and then she joined with the favourites and seemingly did nothing to contribute to that alliance. She didn't seem to grasp that this was the perception that she had to get over. Her opening statement was a bit tone deaf, thinking that her revelation that she's a successful business woman will have an impact on the jury is so out of touch with what they were looking for.

(BONUS QUESTION ADDED AFTER PUBLISHING BECAUSE I JUST THOUGHT OF IT:)
Does Eddie understand that he would have been in the same position as Sherri at Final Tribal?

No, because he probably assumed the Amigos would just bro-up and vote for him, Michael would vote for him because they were on the same tribe for a while and kinda aligned at one point, Andrea would vote for him because he's awesome and that Corrine would vote for him because, well, isn't Eddie dreamy?

The reality is that Reynold probably would have voted for him, but the others? Not a chance in hell. I would have laughed a lot when it happened, BTW. Especially if Reynold voted for Cochran as well. Heck, I wish it would have happened. But this is the guy that there was a Dawn/Erik/Sherri final 5, and thought that voting for the person who wasn't voted out every time post merge except once was a sign that he wasn't strategic enough (which betrays the lack of understanding he has for the game.)

Is this the biggest collection of challenge threats ever?
That was an interesting point that Cochran brought up during the final tribal council, and initially I dismissed it as some smoke blowing by Cochran. But the more I thought about it, the more I agreed with Cochran. I mean you'd have to look at All-Stars and Heroes vs. villains as the most likely to have those challenge threats, but they tended to get voted out pre-merge in those seasons. So in this case I'm willing to agree if we look at it post-merge.

Did Dawn's not removing her teeth cost her the game?

Ooops. I wrote this before Dawn removed her teeth. Quick change to:

Did Dawn's delay in removing her teeth cost her the game?

No, but it probably did cost her a vote. It was great that she was willing to remove her teeth to prove that she wasn't going to leave the game, but at the same time it came across as though Brenda had bullied her into doing it instead of Dawn owning it and doing it on her own volition. Malcolm's whole point in the beginning was that Dawn needed to own everything and stand up to the jury. If she had just done it immediately, she might have gotten Malcolm's vote. Between that and a bit too much deferral to the Cochran/Dawn team probably cost her votes.

Instead, she was whitewashed, and unfairly to an extent; this was more of a Stephen Fishbach shutout than a Dreamz/Cassandra shutout. Dawn played a good game; she made bonds, got information and then used that information to further her game instead of letting somebody else further their game. But in the end she faced off against somebody who played her game, but did so without the same sort of impact on personal relationships in part because Dawn made those relationships for Cochran.

Is there a Godfather analogy to be made for the Dawn/Cochran relationship?
No, unless you want to consider Dawn to be the "Don", and Cochran to be the consigliere.

(Actually, that might not be bad. And it has that homophone effect as well. Let's try to run with it.)

The biggest weakness to this comparison is that Dawn wasn't the leader of much of anything. But if you look at is as Dawn being the "face" of the group, and Cochran as the person behnd the scenes making the things happen, it does kinda fit if you squint. Cochran ran the show, in a sense at the direction of Dawn (or at least the information that Dawn gave him.)

Hmmm...maybe that's not the best idea. Maybe the better analogy would be Cochran as Don and Dawn as one of his Lieutenants, who is there to help run the show on the ground but at the same time is there to take the blows for the Don. Ultimately that's what happened.

What was the underrated event that caused Cochran to win the game?

When Malcolm made the Three Amigos immune and caused Phillip to get voted out. The biggest hurdle that Cochran had was to somehow vote Phillip while keeping him from getting bitter about Cochran's betrayal. Malcolm made it easy by having the two idols, and Erik pushed it over the top by bringing up that Malcolm didn't necessarily have to play both idols. The best path for the favourites at that point was to continue with their voting plan, and for the Three Amigos the best plan to play the idols. Which meant that Cochran had his problem solved: Phillip got voted out and Cochran had absolutely no blood on his hand for it.

Will Cochran's win stop Jeff Probst's mocking?

Yes, because now Probst can use him as part of his inspirational speaking style. (Of course, continually bringing up Cochran's nerdiness is a bit of mocking, but small steps.)
(Oh, and Stephen Fishbach, look out! Cochran wants to be a writer. Wouldn't People want a former winner as their Survivor blogger?)

Can Phillip play the game ever again now that he's inducted impartial Jeff Probst into Stealth R Us?

Of course. In final tribal we saw that Stealth R Us membership is revocable. So Phillip would just revoke it in the interest of fairness (like all good members of Stealth R Us.)

How many people tweeted the twist for next season before the tease was shown?

Probably a million billion.

How awkward was that little girl interview?

More awkward than having the non-jury cast members sitting in the crowd and not on stage.

Did you like the new format of the finale?

Yup. Honestly, there wasn't anything that I really wanted to hear from the pre-jury members, save maybe the odd insult from Corrine. It sucks for them and a bit unfair to them, but at the same time what where they going to add?

Would they have had that format if Phillip didn't make the jury?

Nope.
Had the person who suggested that they were finally going to bring a third tribe to the beach ever watch a season of Survivor before this one?

I doubt it. THERE WAS A THIRD TRIBE LAST SEASON!

Is Survivor: Blood vs. Water a tortured way to get a cool name for the Family twist?

Yes.

So, where does Cochran rank in the pantheon of winners?

You'll have to wait until later in the week to find that out.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 13 Thoughts

I think that Cochran has played a great game this year, as you can tell by how I have ranked him in my power rankings. But tonight, he made a mistake that might end up hurting him.

Let's begin with what wasn't a mistake. The concept of targetting Brenda was smart of Cochran, regardless of how aware Cochran is of Dawn being close to Brenda. She was a threat to win the game, and just as importantly Brenda was a threat to win immunity and mess up Cochran's preferred final three of himself, Dawn and Sherri. It also wipes out the last strategic threat in the game, who could mess up his plans in many ways.

However it was a mistake to actually vote out Brenda at this vote. The one rule that I continually hammer home that you need to follow in Survivor is "Keep It Simple, Stupid" or the KISS Principle. In this case, the KISS solution to who to vote out would be Eddie. He's on the outside of the core alliance of 5 and voting him out doesn't affect your final three alliance of Dawn and Sherri. It also won't cause harsh feelings with somebody on the jury - Brenda getting voted out in final 5 would be understood, and not a problem for Cochran at all. But Brenda getting blindsided in the final 6? That's damage for Cochran, getting rid of Brenda right after she gifted him with a family visit and BBQ. It was unnecessary, and it seemed like Cochran did it mostly because it was a big play. If you feel as though you are in charge of the game (which Cochran apparently does), you don't need to have make a big move. Just stay the course and all will be fine.

There is also the risk that Eddie will go on an immunity run, and will carry that and a bitter jury to a win. That's less likely but still not something that I want to risk.

And with that said, if Cochran made a mistake, Dawn made an absolutely colossal blunder. Take all of the reasons why it was a mistake for Cochran to vote out Brenda, amplify them by a million billion times, and throw in a dash of "keeping Brenda makes you the swing vote in the final 5 and almost assuredly allows you to pick who you will go with to final tribal. It makes absolutely no sense for Dawn to drop the hammer on Brenda, and I feel like Dawn didn't put very much effort into keeping Brenda around. While this might have been a mistake for Cochran which might affect him in final tribal, this was 100% a mistake for Dawn that will 100% affect her in final tribal. She can not get Brenda's vote now, and she's probably going to get an epic speech delivered towards her at final tribal by Brenda. Dawn's best case scenario is that Brenda's speech does not impact the other jurors' votes. The worse case? It leads to Dawn getting shut out in final voting.

Reward Challenges - Are they worth it?

This week's challenge was the beloved Family challenge where the winner ends up having to choose other Survivors to get family visits as well, or have to give up their own visit to let everybody else get a visit. This time there was an added twist - there were second family members to visit for a barbecue. The other catch? Brenda, the winner of the challenge had already selected Dawn to have a visit from her loved one. So Brenda wasn't just having to choose to give up her visit, but also to give up Dawn's visit as well. Automatically this is a no win situation for Brenda. No matter what choice she makes, she is going to have people angry with her, and she's obviously besties with Dawn. If she chooses to keep the family visit for her and Dawn, she's a selfish person. If she chooses to give away the family visit, she's pandering for jury votes and pisses off Dawn. So what's she to do?

I have no good answer to this. It's a choice that I don't know that I could make if it was presented to me. I think that I would make the same decision as Brenda, but it would absolutely destroy me to hurt Dawn in that way. I would only hope that Dawn would eventually understand. And I'll be honest, there would be a lot of swearing at Jeff Probst and probably a tearful breakdown. But at the same time I think I would have another solution all together: just not win.

If you look at most individual rewards, you end up having to choose people to share it with you. Those choices only lead to creating strain on other relationships with people who feel that you should bring them to the reward. So why not just punt the decision and let somebody else get the angry attacks, especially if that meant that you could still reap the rewards? It just doesn't make any sense.

I appreciate the producers actually making the decision hard for people to make, but they might have swung the pendulum too far the other way. Next season will be interesting to see if there is a switch in strategy.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 12 Power Rankings

6. Sherri

Sherri has the same problem as Eddie - her chances of winning are basically reliant on the jury being bitter. Thus far, it doesn't look like we are headed to a bitter jury so Sherri's chances to win are even worse than Eddie. At least Eddie can claim to be a part of a group that tried to flip the game; Sherri really doesn't have that.

Preferred Final Tribal: A final 2 with Eddie

5. Eddie

I've already predicted that Eddie is going to make final tribal. I just don't see how he can win.

Preferred Final Tribal: A final 3 with Cochran and Dawn. The theory here is that if Dawn and Cochran make final tribal, they are going to have to wear the elimination of everybody and they are both going to try to make the argument that they were teh main reason for making final tribal. Eddie could somehow split this and just say he did nothing bad and if the jury is angry enough, they will vote for Eddie. This wouldn't work for a final 3 with, say, Brenda and Erik, but a definite pair who crushed their alliance and their opposition? That might work.

4. Brenda

Andrea was right when she was making the plea to get rid of Brenda. Brenda hasn't angered anybody, and has been a pretty good challenge competitor. She can easily win if she makes the final tribal. That's why I think the odds are that she won't make it unless she goes on an immunity run.

Preferred Final Tribal: (From here on out, just assume Eddie and Sherri unless I specify otherwise).

3. Dawn

Dawn is third because I think that she's going to be the one that everybody is concerned about in the final four. They could see her as a threat to win. And even if she doesn't get eliminated, her telling on multiple people and their plans could come back to haunt her.

2. Cochran

Cochran is riding a great run, having eliminated his biggest rival in Andrea and looking like he's in the driver's seat. With that said, not having the cover of Andrea means that Cochran has put a bigger target on his back, especially with 2 immunity challenge wins under his belt. It might end up coming down to himself and Dawn as the final 2 options for the final torch snuffing.

1. Erik
Before I get to Erik's future chances, let me defend Erik for a minute. Yes, him giving the idol to Andrea was questionable in a vacuum. He could have easily just kept it for himself and it would have been legit under the rules. But consider it from his point of view. If he keeps the idol for himself, which he was only searching for because Andrea shared the info and his entire alliance was searching for it, he could come across as greedy and scheming. Given the tone of the tribe was to look for a big move, that could have easily been a blindside of him. Also, if he made final tribal at the expense of Andrea and the others thanks in part to the idol, that pains him in a negative light as well. When you consider that his strategy has been to have no strategy, this would go counter to the image he wanted to portray.

As for his chances of winning, Erik has two challenges to winning. First, he needs to make final tribal, and that might mean putting together a run of immunity victories. It's certianly a possibility that I wouldn't be surprised by if it happened.

The second challenge is that Erik needs to communicate his story clearly at final tribal. He needs to finesse it, saying that he wasn't the mastermind behind the plans to put the jury on the jury, but he was the one who made the decision tribal after tribal as to who was going home. He needs to emphasize that he was integral to the results, but not the planning. That he had decisions to make but not plans to be designed. If he does that, he stands a great chance of winning.

Preferred final 3: Dawn and Cochran. Erik can be carried by them strategically, but he can dominate them during the game to make the point that he is more than just a guy who came up with a plan. As well, he can contrast himself with Cochran and Dawn's actions and look good.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 12 Thoughts

As I was finished watching this episode a thought crossed my mind that sent shivers down my spine. It is so unthinkable that I tried everything that I could to get it out of my mind. But no matter how much I tried, it lingered, like the stench of death.

Eddie is going to the final tribal council.

What frightens me about it isn't so much that he's going to be there, but that he stands a chance of winning if the jury gets bitter.

I realize this is far away thinking, but it is obvious now that the Favorites are thinking ahead to final tribal and who they want to face, or more specifically, who they do not want to face. This was prompted by Andrea's big play thinking, which she had been able to harness only when she needed to (specifically when the Three Amigos were looking flip the split vote on to her.) Obviously she felt that now was a good time to make her move and put herself into what she felt woudl be a better position for final tribal. That triggered the rest of the favorites' strategy and survival skills and caused the nuclear strike we ended up seeing.

Now that the favorites have been woken up to the fact that they are going to have to get rid of other people who seem like they could win, which basically encompasses the rest of the favorites. So they're going to go after each other, while Eddie and Sherri squeak on through. Eventually, they are just going to reach a point that where the favorites have taken each other out and one or two of them are left with Eddie and Sherri. And ultimately, would you rather go against Eddie or another favorite?

As for Eddie's chances to win, they are long. But they do exist.

I know that I've ranted about how Sandra did not deserve to win Heroes vs. Villains, in part because her argument was that the strategy and plays that she attempted to make failed. However, that's going to be a better argument than what Eddie can present to the jury. Eddie's argument for the jury is basically "Hey, I didn't do anything to you guys." That would be infinitely more frustrating because there isn't even an appeal to the jury to say "Hey I was smarter than you" like Sandra's pitch implicitly said. Eddie's pitch would be a pure "You hate those guys, right? So vote for me to stick it to them." And if he won, that would be the worst.

An Ode to Reynold

I might be the only person watching Survivor who actually liked Reynold. He had a little bit of douchiness, but nowhere near as much as Eddie. And his plans never seemed to work out. But he was a hard worker, a good challenge competitor and he was never willing to give up. He also had a positive attitude that I doubt I could have if every single plan I made ended up failing miserably in the end. And his faith in others was something to behold; even Erik wasn't that trusting.

Was he a great player? No. But he wasn't a bad player either. I'd actually be interested to see him play again and how he might change his play the second time around. At a minimum, he will be good for great plans that fail in predictable ways.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 11 Power Rankings

8. Eddie

Eddie only goes as far as immunity wins will carry him. So unless he wins out, he will be gone. It does not look good for Eddie.

7. Reynold

In the same boat as Eddie, only I think Reynold stands a better chance in final tribal if only because he has been more "active" in the game front. As well, he's shown himself to be a bit more proficient in challenges.

6. Sherri

I think that Sherri made the right choice to stay with Stealth R Us. The Three Amigos are incredibly tight, so barring a final 4 immunity win, she'd end up out at 4. Stealth R Us are actually at a point where they will probably break into a faction war, and she could actually be a pivotal player in that war. Throw in that she could make final th ree from it, and it seems like a clear cut move.

5. Brenda

I'll be honest. The editors got me for a minute. I thought that Brenda's increased presence in the episode, and her failure at the Auction caused me to think it was going to be her getting voted out due to some sort of bamboozling. Instead, she looks like she's going to figure into this Stealth R Us rupture, either by being the first victim, or by creating a counter group.

4. Dawn

Another thing I was wrong about: I thought that Dawn was going to hold it together when she realized that she didn't have the $20 to buy a letter from home due to her over anxious bidding on a whole chicken. She seemed like she knew she messed up, but had already accepted that as a fact.

Then...waterworks. I don't think she will ever change, and that's a good thing. It makes her a more compelling person to watch.

(Malcolm's reaction was also fun: "I'm not crying, but I feel the way they feel." Of course you do bro, of course you do.)

3. Andrea

Andrea and Cochran appear to be the brains of the operation. With that said, her paranoia is going to get the best of her. If it was her thought that Malcolm had the idol so they needed to split the vote, well that was just goofy. You have two other targets available to you - Reynold and Eddie. Vote one of them out for crying out loud. Rule 1 of Survivor play: Keep it Simple, Stupid. Splitting votes complicates the issue, and it is very easy to mess up. We almost saw it this week, but luckily for Stealth R Us, nobody felt comfortable jumping.

I was amused by her following around of Malcolm though. It was an interesting way to make sure that Malcolm didn't find the idol without her knowing (even if she just ignored that plan later and assumed he had the idol.)

2. Erik

His "No strategy" strategy seems to have put him in a position where he seems like the most likely to pick up any anti-others votes. As well, he's setting himself up to be a threat in challenges (though thus far he hasn't shown much of anything in the challenges.) I can see him being brought to the finals as a goat, but turn out to be a winner.

1. Cochran

The only person smart enough to think "Maybe we don't need to split the vote." If he makes final tribal, he's a shoo-in to win (barring some sort of horrendous and unexpected double cross on his part) His biggest concern now? Actually getting to final tribal. The Stealth R Us alliance is very fluid now that the finish line is in sight. People are going to start manuevering for the end game, and that is going to include getting rid of players that can win at the end. Cochran has shown that he has improved his challenge play; now he has to show that he's improved his end game strategy.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 11 Thoughts

"It's better to burn out than to fade away"
- Neil Young

After last week's amazing tribal council, you couldn't help but root for Malcolm. He put himself behind the eight ball by trying to make a move very early on, and has scrambled every since to survive. He has great confessionals as well. But most importantly, he brought big moves to the table.

Two weeks ago, he somehow convinced Reynold to hand over a hidden immunity idol simply by pointing at a vague comment that Philip made. Survivor fans jaws dropped.

The week after, he used two hidden immunity idols to make the three targets of Stealth 'R Us safe, and caused the most hectic tribal council in history. Combine that with his showing last season, and you have the most memorable player to come around since Russell Hantz himself.

This week, he managed to make people think that he might have an idol even though they were watching him constantly when he searched for an idol! He also had the greatest first purchase in Survivor Auction history - his beer and nuts and pretzel purchase (which he knew he couldn't do because he needed all his money to try to get an advantage in the game) was hilarious, as was his confessional that was shown immediately after. Then he was invited to come up and get his beer and to sample it by Jeff. Turns out that Malcolm has a different idea as to what "sampling" means, and Malcolm chugged it, which lead to great reactions from the other players, who were in awe of his chugging. It also gave us Jeff Probst's finest moment, celebrating the bro-ness of Malcolm's chugging by saying "Now that is how you do it!" Indeed it is Jeff.

If he wants to play again, he will be able to without any problem. If he doesn't he's going to be remembered fondly by everybody who watched this season; quite possibly he's going to be remembered most fondly by everybody who played this season as well. In short, his agressive play might not have lead to his victory, but it did lead to the next best thing - a standing invite to come back, the love of the fans (and likely $100,000 coming from being fan favourite) and his plays being remembered for years to come.

Compare that to Sherri. Sherri had the chance to make a big play and join with the Three Amigos, eliminating Andrea (sorry, An-DRE-ah) at the same time. This would have left her at worst in a 4-4 tie next week. The downside is that there isn't proof that she is jumping into a better situation. Malcolm, Reynold and Eddie seems like a strong group of 3, so it would be difficult for her to get any further than that. Either way, she seems to not be "running the show" as she claims, but instead deciding which alliance will be alive at the end. She decided to not go with Malcolm (which was probably her best choice), but in the end, will she be remembered as a player if she doesn't win? Heck, if she does win will she be remembered?

Sometimes, fortune favours the bold. And if you make a big enough play, maybe you'll have a Lego Survivor Musical number created in your honour as well:

(Note: This comes from Lisa Ferreira, proprietor of the fantastic Winter Pays for Summer blog. The Survivor recaps are well worth the read!)

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 10 Thoughts (with bounes Episode 9 thoughts)

This was going to be about how stupid everybody is playing this game. I was prepared to call everybody out over how dumb they have been over the last two episodes. Turns out that Malcolm had different plans.

Malcolm is like the nicer version of Russell Hantz. He's managed to find 3 immunity idols and has gotten somebody to willingly give up an immunity idol to him. He's taken a minority alliance and managed to have a majority alliance turn against itself and keep his minority alliance together for 3 straight tribal councils. He's made tribal councils the most entertaining since Russel and Parvarti in Heroes vs. Villains. And he's on a path to be the deserving winner of this season, even if he doesn't.
Let's go back to last week and his convincing of Reynold to hand over his hidden immunity idol. Unless Philip was playing him, Malcolm read the situation and reacted in a smart way. Ironically, it was only Andrea's paranoia that stopped this from working. This doesn't mean that it was a horrible read by Malcolm.

And then this week, he made one of the best plays in Survivor history. While it was highly dependent on immunity idols, it was still played perfectly.

Malcolm found a second hidden immunity idol (and that was amazing itself. It looks like they're going to replace idols as soon as they played, which brings a completely different dynamic.) He found it right after Dawn made reference to him finding it. So now he has two idols, and can use it in any way he wants. The easiet way to use them is to hold the one that nobody knows he has back, and then blindside Stealth R us. But that doesn't necessarily get him farther - it just delays a vote out by a week. So instead he decides to reveal that he, Reynold and Eddie are safe midway through tribal council, causing Stealth R Us to realize that they had to vote one of their own out, and they hadn't discussed it. This caused the panic, scrambe and chaos that Malcolm wanted. With that, Malcolm had a chance to break up the majority alliance, and then move into a better position.

Ironically, it was Erik (who has been derided for not playing the game) who came up with the best counter to this strategy, pointing out that just because Eddie and Malcolm had idols, it did not mean that they were going to play them. To change the vote is to allow them to not play the idol, while to leave the vote as is would let them choose who was to go home. Given that they couldn't really communicate who would be the new target, that was the better option for the Stealth R Us crew.

I also want to give Erik a shout out here. As I mentioned, he has been derided for not playing, but he has made two major choices that were difficult to make, but also the right choice to make. His decision to vote out Corinne allowed him to move back with the Bros at a later date, which happened today. He chose to vote with the bros to get rid of Philip, which was only necessary if he wanted Philip out and thought that one of the immunity idols would not be played. I think the lack of confessionals have caused people to conclude that Erik hasn't been playing the game, which isn't right. He's been playing; it's just that his play hasn't caused that many ripples.

So where do we go from here? Malcolm tries to get together another crew, and fails again? Or does somebody who feels as though they are at the bottom flip? I guess it will be standard operating procedures here, and one of Eddie/Reynold/Malcolm will be going next. But if they can make the flip, Malcolm automatically shoots up for discussion as the best player in Survivor history.
Either way, Malcolm has made this an interesting strategic season, and taken away from the ugliness in the early season. And for that I'm thankful.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 8 Power Rankings

11. Michael

Lost his guardian angel in Corinne, and is an easy boot for anybody who wants to simplify things next week. He can win if he makes final 3, but he's not making final 3 so that's a moot point.

10. Eddie

In the same boat as Reynold, only without an immunity idol. Unless he finds some sort of magical alliance out there, he is not long for this game.

 9. Sherri

She gets a reprieve but is not in a good spot at all. The favourites don't really need her any more; if she gets suggested as a peace offering, I'm sure that the favourites will be more than willing to vote her out.

 8. Brenda

If it wasn't for her reaction at the immunity challenge, I would have assumed that Brenda had just left the game or something.

 7. Reynold

Back to square one for Reynold. Just when it seems like he's gotten ahead, the game drags him back to a bad spot. The bright side is that if he actually makes it to final tribal, his story will overcome any perceived personality issues he has.

 6. Philip

Dodged a bullet, but it is obvious that nobody likes him. That alone knocks him down a few notches. The only reason why he continues to be this high? Because of his high probability to make the final tribal council.

 5. Malcolm

Big drop here. He stays high because he has an idol that nobody else knows about, but he has some scrambling to reassert himself to the favourites. He could try to find another alliance that would be willing to flip, or he could just go back to his alliance and grovel. Either way, he needs to do something this week.

 4. Erik

Erik needs to win challenges once his alliance are the only ones left. Otherwise he's going to get the boot for being too likeable.

 3. Andrea

She took the information from Dawn and made the move to tell Erik what was going on and who to vote for. She convinced him to flip and he did. That's a great move, and a sign of strength. She's in a great spot right now.

 2. Cochran
 1. Dawn
Dawn and Cochran are working incredibly well together. Dawn took he information that she got from Corinne, and she and Cochran worked out the best plan to get themselves out of this seemingly big hole they found themselves in. Dawn is in first because this is the second time that she has raised the flag on somebody who told her some troubling plans and got them eliminated. But Cochran is a proven immunity threat now...

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 8 Thoughts

Let me start by saying this: I wish Corinne was on every season. At a minimum, her confessionals are worth it, and I would support some sort of pop-up video addition to every season to give out her snarky awesomeness.

With that said, Corinne played terribly and got outplayed by Philip Sheppard. That is quite the feat. The absolute worst part about how she was defeated? She was taken down by doing her best Philip Sheppard impersonation and talking too much to too many people.

Corinne was in such a great spot. She has Michael in her pocket, she had an alliance with Malcolm and thus his three members of the bro alliance, and they had a plan. Vote out Sherri this time, and all of the sudden your group of six can run the board, starting with your hated rival Philip. All you have to do is get through one tribal council without tipping your hand.

But Corinne couldn't keep things to herself, and she talked to Dawn. She told Dawn the full plan and how things are going to work out. There was no reason to do this; Corinne had the numbers lined up perfectly, and had somehow used Jedi mind tricks to convince the favourites to vote out Sherri instead of the much bigger Reynold/Eddie threats. And yet, she felt compelled to tell Dawn what the future was bringin, but to what end? To set herself up to have a 3 person alliance to draw Malcolm to in place of the bros? And more importantly, why couldn't Corrine have waited until after Sherri was gone to tell Dawn what her plan was and it would be more difficult to actually stop it from happening?

Honestly, I think Corinne wanted to be found out. She started out by being admant that the favourites target Sherri instead of Reynold or Eddie. Her reason was that everybody wanted her out so it would promote unity or something, but it was the sketchiest logic that I have heard in a while. Why not target the immunity threats who you are going to have to go through to get to the end?

It's actually is reminiscent of last week, when she demanded that there was no split vote so that her precious Michael would not be offended or lost. Though at least last week, it really didn't matter either way who went. This week there was an obvious target, but she didn't want to target them. Nobody ended up figuring out why, so she moved to telling Dawn.

In case Dawn didn't tell anybody what the plan was, Corinne moved on to the next step of her plan to get discovered: hint at it at tribal council. Her quote from Mike Tyson about people not liking to get punched in the face was a metaphor that if people were paying attention, would have tipped them off that something was up.

(Of course, if they weren't then Reynold made sure that it was obvious with his "SURPRISES ARE COMING" talk. Oh Reynold. If you weren't making such glaring horrendous statements, I would feel pity for you that your latest attempt to save your skin fell flat on its face, much like every other attempt you have made.)

In the end, maybe it wasn't a desire to be found out that caused Corinne to act as she did. Maybe it was what she accused Sherri of when she voted for Sherri: "You played a good game, but I wasn't looking to make a friend." Maybe Corinne was just trying to make friends with Dawn, only to have Dawn burn her.

Whatever it was, Corinne played a strong position into a horrendous position in a very short period of time. That is an accomplishment, but maybe not one to be proud of.

The Immunity Challenge

I wanted to give this a quick shout out. I can not explain how excited I was when the previews showed that the challenge this week was going to be an eating challenge. This is the sort of thing that has been missing from Survivor over the last seasons.  So let me reveal some of the things that entertained me:

• The first reactions to the covered plates were great, but Erik's "Mine moved a little" takes the cake for all reactions

Continuing on with Erik, I loved that he continued to try to eat the Beetle Larva after he had been eliminated. It was as though he was trying to prove that he could eat the Larva. Or maybe he was just hungry. I don't know.

I don't ask for much, but if I could get a screencap of Brenda's face when the Beetle Larva were revealed, I would really appreciate it.

As I mentioned on Twitter, I fist pumped when the Balut was revealed. I can't think of anything more disgusting to eat than that, and that it fit with the Philippines was great as well. Plus the throwback to previous years were great.

Cochran's victory was awesome. From his strutting after making it to the next round, to his celebration after winning immunity and his uncanny ability to eat things fast (which led me to wonder if he was related to Stevie Starr.

Best Play of the Week

I'm giving this to Erik's decision to vote with the Philip/Dawn/Cochran group.  Erik's best path to victory is to go on a immunity streak, and that's going to be a lot easier when facing Philip/Dawn/Cochran/Andrea/etc than Malcolm/Eddie/Reynold. And there's the added bonus that Erik can jump back if she really wants to. It was a rare realization that he would be on the bottom of the bro alliance that flipping wouldn't hurt him.

Worst Play of the Week

Corinne pushing Philip to vote out Sherri when it wasn't necessary. All Corinne had to do was say, "Yes, let's split the vote." Then they could have blindsided Philip without problem. But since Corinne decided to go against Philip for old time's sake, that started her down the path that lead to her boot.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 7 Power Rankings

They're back!

12. Sherri

Has an alliance with...Michael? She could coast along for a bit while the various factions sort out their issues, but she isn't going to get into final tribal.

11. Brenda

Brenda is basically in the same position as Sherri, though she is a favorite, so she has a leg up. As well, Brenda has a reputation of being a good player. That is going to cause people to target her as soon as they can.

10. Eddie

Eddie is this low because unless he goes on an immunity run, I can see him being the odd man out of the bros group. And I don't think he beats Reynold in final tribal if it gets to that point.

9. Michael

Could be too low based on what the preview for next week says is going to happen. But he is at the bottom of the purple tribe, and only has Corrine's stated desire to take him deep to carry him. He's smart, but he isn't going to flip the favorites himself.

8. Philip

Philip is running the show, and he's going to pay the price for running the show. Everybody is looking to get rid of him, regardless of favorite or fan designation. They all want to blind side him, and Philip is not doing himself any favours by keeping the pedal to the metal the entire time, and not backing off.

7. Corrine

Corrine's desire to get rid of Philip is getting in the way of her desire to play the game smartly and getting to the end. Her flare ups with Philip only show the cracks in the favorites' alliance, and make her a likely target for whenever somebody decides to make a move in the favorites group.

6. Reynold

On the bright side, Reynold continues to be a challenge beast, he has a solid alliance with Malcolm and he has an immunity idol. On the down side, Malcolm knows he has an idol, and Malcolm can be very manipulative when he wants to be. Reynold is in a decent position to go far, but the question is whether he can make it to the end.

5. Erik

Speaking of challenge beasts, here's Erik. Everybody seems to still forget that Erik would have won the first Fans vs. Favorites season if he doesn't give up immunity. He was that good at challenges, and that well liked. This season he has been kinda invisible, but his instincts have been pretty spot on, and he seems to have stumbled into a good alliance. Nobody is going to want to go with him to the end, but who's to say that they are going to have a choice?

4. Andrea

This feels like a bit of a default positioning, but Andrea is in good with the fans, and she seems to have the hesitant trust of many people. The downside is that she seems to see trouble in anything and everything that happens around her. If she can stay playing slow, she'll be fine and could win the game. But if not, she's in a lot of trouble.

3. Cochran
2. Dawn

The ones who were actually making the decisions on the purple tribe, they are playing a great game so far. As they are making the decisions, they are making sure that Philip wears the consequences fo their decisions. They're going to continue to "float" while doing what they want, until it comes down to whatever faction they are in and either the Corrine or Malcolm faction. If they come out on top, one of these two will win.

1. Malcolm

The clubhouse leader, Malcolm is a challenge threat, has an immunity idol, and seemingly has alliances with everybody in the game. He also has the charisma to pull off having an alliance with everybody, and will be able to play them off of each other for as long as he needs it to. So long as he doesn't choke in the final immunity challenge, he will win the game.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 7 Thoughts

The Horsemen reborn!

Malcolm struck me as the best player coming into the season, and he has done nothing to dissway me from this. Today he came up with another angle which ended up paying huge immediate dividends.
He was smart to realize that he was on a tribe with 3 other alpha males, and the alpha males would be a target. So why not band them together for the short term (and then obviously cut them loose as soon as you can.) And for his troubles, he found out that Reynold had the immunity idol.

Reynold just can't help himself though. If you give him an inch, he'll give you back a mile. I have to admit that I don't know how I would react if I had sensed that I had been betrayed continuously, and was then approached by somebody else to join them. I like to think that I would be a little wary though, and definitely wouldn't offer up the biggest piece of information I have. But that's me. Reynold might be suffering from some sort of anxiety based on his continued rejection, and it might be causing him to give up this information. Or he could just be a nice guy who lives in the moment, instead of thinking too far ahead.

Julia decides to pack 10 days of playing into one day

We hadn't seen too much from Julia. Heck, you knew it was bad when everybody on the show was referring to Julia as being vanilla and invisible. So when she was offered a lifeline from Philip, she chose to try to use that information to cause the favorites to overthrow Philip. That, of course, found its way back to Philip and he turned on her.

I never cease to be amazed that when people are handed a life line, they try to turn it into a trap for the person offering it. In turn, that life line ends up becoming a noose for them. The name of the game is Survivor. If somebody is giving you an opportunity to survive a little bit longer, take it! Don't try to flip it on them immediately unless you know it will work. It goes back to the basic principle of Survivor: Keep it Simple, Stupid. Why make a fancy play when a simple one will work?

Julia decided to make a complex play all of the sudden, and ended up screwing herself for it.

Corrine and her stupidity

Beginning by announcing "I want to work with Michael long term," and following up with "I don't want to split votes because I want him to trust us" after he was made to look like a fool on the Matt vote? And as an added bonus throwing out in a confessional that you know that the Julia doesn't have the idol because you and Malcolm have it? WTF?

Let's begin with her announcing that she wants to work with Michael long term. I mean, what would possess you to say that? You are basically telling your alliance that "Hey, I want to have something on the side here. Don't worry, we're still good. Just I'll be extra good because I'll have my side alliance and you guys won't." And then to throw in that you want him to feel comfortable to continue to work with you? Why not just take him aside and tell him "The vote is going to be split 2/2/2, but don't worry, it's Julia." That way you can keep him on side, but also keep your alliance in check. As well, he might pick up on the hint and vote Julia himself.

The real stupid part was that if Corrine had just did my idea of giving Michael the information on the down low, she would have been fine. Your worst case scenario? Michael brings it up at tribal, and gets voted out. Corrine is still in the same "I don't trust you" spot with Philip, but also is out of a potentially bad situation with Michael. Given the the upside of the play, that would have been much superior to what she did.

And finally, the theory that there couldn't be an idol because you and Malcolm have one? You don't think there could be an idol on the other beach where the fans came from? God love Corrine (and she is fantastic), but that was some stupid Survivor theory right there. I almost wanted there to be an idol that we knew nothing about, and that Julia had and played to get Corrine voted out.
This isn't to say that Philip deserves to duck some of the blame here. By acting like himself, he made the Corrine situation much worse. And even though they ended up on the same page, it just showed to everybody else that there was going be trouble ahead, and they might want to get their ducks in a line.

Best Play of the Week

Malcolm recruiting Reynold. Not only did he make a solid side alliance with others, but he got key information about where the other immunity idol is. A good side alliance will work out well for him, unless he has to decide immediately whether he needs to stay with the favorites, or if he needs to flip.

Worst Play of the Week

Julia and her attempt to flip Dawn. Ignoring the concerns that I metioned before, Julia chose to try and flip DAWN. It's not in Dawn's nature to turn on someone so quickly. She needs a good reason to do it, which Julia wasn't able to provide.  Why not try to flip Corrine, who has shown that she doesn't care about alliances, so long as she gets further in the game. If Julia had thought for just a minute, she might still be in the game.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 5 Thoughts

I'd love to break down the strategy in this episode, but frankly, there isn't much to talk about strategy wise. Good on Reynold for finding the hidden immunity idol for a second time, and for his desire to keep it under wraps. I get the feeling that them showing Julia working on the fire as Reynold tells Eddie about the idol will come into play somehow, but that won't play out for at least a week.

And Brandon happened.

The first real big take away from this was that Philip has no idea as to how to handle somebody like Brandon, and that's why he'll never be the Boston Rob figure he tried to be. You have to coddle Brandon; he is far too unstable to push away. In short, if Philip had treated Brandon "better" (as better as blatantly lying to somebody can be), this could have been avoided. Instead, Philip continued to treat Brandon as he envisioned Bostson Rob treating him if he messed up, and the whole tribe paid the price.

The other take away from this is how unentertaining it was to watch Brandon melt down at the immunity challenge. This was uncomfortable at it's best; disturbing at it's worst. There were times that it seemed as though he was ready to assault Philip, and he didn't care if he did. He went off in a way that somebody who understood that he was playing a game could never go off. His tantrum at camp was kind off understandable; he was pissed and was going to take the tribe down with him. At the immunity challenge? Something bad was going to happen if Jeff didn't step in.

The thing that made me uncomfortable about it? The way that Jeff Probst grinned though the entire situation. It was as though he was amused by this situation, even though he was doing everything he could to diffuse it and/or keep it from escalating. He correctly read that Brandon had to leave now, or else something bad was going to happen. I couldn't tell if the grin was his producer side sneaking out saying "this is great TV!"

The other uncomfortable factor was that even though it was unentertaining, it was compelling to watch. You could tell that Brandon truly felt everything he was saying; you didn't know if the situation was going to explode. But you felt compelled to watch.

The only thing you could feel after watching this is that Brandon should never be on Survivor or any other reality TV show again. He clearly has issues to deal with which are much larger in scope than anything that can be dealt with on TV. Bringing him back only serves to exploit him; the hope is that he's going to explode once again.

There is also the real question as to whether he should have been brought back in the first place. He went through a lot publically after finishing his first season, and his experiences during the first season were odd at the best of times. I understand that he was a recognizable face from his season, but maybe it would have been better to bring back a Sash, who could create drama in his own way and not make the viewer wonder about what they were watching.

This episode is bound to get everybody talking. The question is whether the discussion is actually a positive for Survivor.

(Blog note: I will probably be late with next week's report as I'll be on vacation in Vegas. With that said, next week will bring the official return of my patented,  completely incorrect power rankings!)

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 4 Thoughts and Best/Worst Plays of the Show

The irony in Shamar's exit

It's always sad when a player has to leave the game due to a medical emergency, regardless of how you view the player prior to the situation. But Shamar's exit had an added bonus to it: an ironic twist.

Shamar had been bitching and complaining the entire time. He had been a distraction for the fans, and had been a nuisance at camp. He did not contribute anything to keeping up the camp, and at the challenges he could be ornery. In short he was destroying any morale the fans had built up, and had set himself up to be a target to be voted out. Ultimately though, he caused his own demise in the game by rubbing his eye which had some sand in it. Not only was the irony sweet, so was the visual. Shamar, who chose to not help around camp and to do virtually nothing, was left lying, unable to help himself.

We've probably seen the last of Shamar, save for the reunion. In a sense it is a shame, as Shamar had the potential to be an interesting character. Instead, he ended up being a stereotype; a lazy, angry person who might be suffering from PTSD, and definitely was not suited to be on the show. It was a big miss by the producers, but they couldn't have known how his game would play out.

So we can't win a challenge, and we just lost one of our strongest players. What's our best move?

With Shamar gone, the fans turned back to the same dilemma that they had prior: to keep Eddie/Reynold to have the strongest tribe possible, or to vote them out in order to have the most tight-knit tribe possible. This being the fans, they made the wrong choice.

Laura smartly picked up on this at Tribal Council, pointing out that there is a likelihood that there is going to be some sort of swap or switch soon. If that were to come soon, you want the closest knit tribe you can have, so that none of the fans split off and teamed with the favourites. That was going to be the only way that they survived the favourite's onslaught. Reynold and Eddie had other ideas, dismissing the possibility of a tribal switch and instead pointing out that they wouldn't have to worry about going to tribal council if they could just win a challenge. In the end, this argument won out and Laura was voted out.

The problem with this is that it came a week too late. If they were going to act concilatory towards Reynold and Eddie, last tribal was the time to do it, when they had only been burned once. It would not have been difficult to bring them back into the tribe at that point, without very many hard feelings. But after they were burnt a second time, Reynold and Eddie were willing to listen and vote Laura out to save themselves, but were not jumping to join into an alliance with anybody else.  So instead of facing a possible tribal swap (which if you follow the pattern of the last Fans vs. Favorites, should be coming soon) with a strong alliance of 5 + Reynold on the outside, they have a group of 4 which is really one pair and 2 individual players, plus another pair who they can't trust to stay loyal.

The only way that this could work out for them is if there was no swap, and they started to win challenges. Neither of those seem likely, so the focus had to be the medium term, which would lead you to vote out Eddie or Reynold. What is the point of keeping them around if they aren't going to lead to any challenge success?

The fans' inexperience is showing a lot, and it is coming back to haunt them.

Best play of the week

Reynold playing the immunity idol. If you are going to look at it from a results perspective, Reynold made a mistake playing the idol. He was told Laura would be going home, and she did. He could have just gone along with the plan and still be in the game with an immunity idol - what a position to be in!

But the reality is that Reynold had to play the idol, and he did. He could not be certain that the vote was going to end up how it did, so he had to protect himself by playing the idol. An ancillary benefit is that it gives Reynold a clean slate with the rest of the tribe. The elephant in the room has been removed, and the tribe can now start the healing process necessary for the fans to stand any chance of winning the game.

One of the guiding principles for anybody playing Survivor has to be the "KISS" philosophy: Keep It Simple, Stupid. The more comlex of a play you make, the more likely it is to backfire. Reynold kept it simple and played his idol when he felt threatened, and is still in the game. That's all he could ask for.

Worst play of the week

Sherri for her backing of the wrong horse again. Sherri identifying Shamar as a goat to be dragged too the end is a great plan. However, her lack of flexibility caused her to keep Shamar when it was much more beneficial for the tribe to get rid of him. While she couldn't forsee what caused Shamar to leave the game, she could easily take the information that she had at hand and realize that Shamar was likely to become a liability at some point, and she was going to have to cut him loose. A more prudent play would be to get rid of him now, and hopefully help to heal the fissure in the fans' tribe.

This week, we saw Sherri flip flop on her motivations. She chose to vote out Laura for the sake of the better of the tribe. The issue with this is what I pointed out earlier - now that you have made your bed, you have to lie in it. Sherri should have fought tooth and nail to keep Laura around, much like she did with Shamar earlier. Tribal physical strength no longer mattered; the bond of the tribe mattered much more. Getting rid of a player on the outside of your alliance is much more important at this point because it is the path that you have already chose to go down.

Final thoughts on the booted player

Laura brought this upon herself, in a sense. She could have teamed with Julia and gone to the cool kids group in order to vote out Shamar. But she stayed loyal, and her loyalty was rewarded with getting the boot next. The danger for a weak player in challenges is always the early part of the game; as Laura said herself it's weakness in challenges that people look to before any bonds are truly made. However there is another danger for a weak player, and that is when your tribe loses challenge after challenge. The fans had lost 5 of 6 challenges thus far, and the one that they won was a come from behind victory. In short, they were getting dominated by the Favorites, and Laura in particular looked especially weak. So when the frustration set in with the tribe over losign so often, she had to know that it would be her that would be targetted. Sadly, she wasn't able to get her alliance to stay unified and not submit to the desire to win a challenge.

Survivor Caramoan: Episode 3 Thoughts and Best/Worst Plays of the Show

Sherri:Shamar::Rob:Philip

Sherri made the comparison herself the week prior, so now everybody will be looking at the Sherri/Shamar relationship in the same way. On the surface, it's an incredibly fair comparison. The strategic player brings along a player that they know has no chance of winning, but is very loyal to the strategic player. The strategic player gets to use the other player as cover and laughs to the victory. When you look closely though, this falls apart.

The obvious difference is that nobody would ever confuse Philip for a challenge threat. While Shamar isn't in as good of shape as some of the others in the game, he is incredibly strong, and that could end up being an asset in the individual immunity challenges. But also, Rob could trust that Philip would stick to the plan. He knew how to play Philip to ensure that he wouldn't go rouge on Rob. As we've already seen, Shamar is willing to play his own game to ensure that he gets what he wants.

Rob was able to manage Philip and put Philip in a position to not mess up Rob's game. Sherri has ended up in a position where she is cleaning up Shamar's messes. If you want to win this game, you need to be Marsellus Wallace. Right now Sherri is Winston Wolf, who is a useful member of any organization, but not going to be getting the benefits of being a leader.

Andrea is playing too fast

This was a common theme from week one, that Andrea was playing too fast and that almost cost her in week one. I didn't see it as much as others, but it is coming through clear now. She doesn't trust Corrine and all of her talking with Malcolm, so she wants to get rid  of her.  To accomplish this, she confided in Philip and then Brandon, while telling them to keep it on the down low. Read that again. She's trustsing Brandon to keep his mouth shut. Brandon. BRANDON!

Even without the hidden immunity idol in play, this is more likely to lead to Andrea getting blindsided by her alliance. Why would her alliance want to stick with someone who is willing to sell out anybody and everybody who isn't conforming to what she feels should happen?

Laura stumbles into a good play

Laura was way too paranoid this week. Yes, her inability to swim probably hurt her tribe. But it wasn't not the only reason they lost. So her thought that the cool kids might target her instead of Shamar was at best an attack of paranoia. If she thought about it for a minute or so, she would have realized that it made no sense to vote her out from her alliances side.

That being said, her initial plan to set up a split vote to get rid of one of the cool kids was smart (and it worked!) Her decision to go after Shamar was the right one, since it would strengthen her tribe, cut out a troublemaker from her alliance, and weaken Sherri enough to ensure that she will draw closer to her alliance. Alas, the  play wasn't meant to be, as somebody got cold feet. But it was a good play, which makes me even more disappointed that it did not happen.

If Laura keeps her wits about her, she could play into a great position.

Best Play of the Week

Sherri, for talking Shamar off of the quitting ledge. She understood how to push the right buttons and get him to rally back and get his head as far into the game as it was going to get. Whether that was because Shamar just wanted attention, or because Shamar was truly considering leaving the game because of how it was affecting his mental wellbeing is left to the reader to decide.

Worst Play of the Week

To Julia or Laura, whoever it was who backed off the idea to vote out Shamar. It's not that it's that bad of an idea to stay with your alliance. It's that you know that Sherri is carrying along Shamar, he's a negative force in your alliance and your tribe and really, you lose nothing by getting rid of him this week.  The only reason to not vote out Shamar is if you think there's a real possibility that  Sherri/Michael/Matt will flip over to the Eddie/Hope/Reynold alliance and screw you over. That's a paranoid way to look at things though; it's not worth your energy to worry about what would cause Eddie/Hope/Reynold to flip on you as well as two of Sherri/Michael/Matt.

(I will allow the possibility that Laura was just bluffing to make sure that Hope did not vote for Eddie and end up getting him voted out. But even that only makes sense if Eddie was not on the block in the next vote.)

Final thoughts on the booted player

Hope got screwed. She was voted out simply because Reynold and Eddie were stronger (even though Eddie blew the challenge for them.) And then there's Shamar, who is one person's goat and who blew up your alliance's plans by telling Hope and tried to manipulate the game to let Hope stay. So why did Hope go? For some misguided thought of keeping strength for challenges that you are likely not going to win.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 2 Thoughts and Best/Worst Plays of the Show

Some thoughts about this week's episode...

Brandon's unpredictableness and how not to handle it

We all know that Brandon Hantz isn't exactly the most reliable person if you aren't aligned with him. Even if he is aligned with you, there's a chance for something to go horribly awry. So you have to treat him with kids gloves, but also be blunt with him, which is an incredibly delicate balancing act.

This is why Philip's decision to give this "CEO and middle management" speech to Brandon was pretty bad. I'm not going to use Brandon's declaration from the previous night that he would channel his Uncle Russell against Philip. Quite frankly, Philip wouldn't have know this. But with that said, he had to know that Brandon was capable of that rage - on Brandon's season we saw it manifest itself often, and most often due to the most bizarre of reasons. So to give the speech that Philip did with all of the condescending that Philip had within the speech was just a bad idea. You have to be blunt with Brandon, sure. But you don't have to belittle him as well. That Brandon went back to camp and only complained about Philip being a bully was shocking in and of itself. That others were able to talk him off of the ledge was less surprising.

Shamar's predictableness and how not to handle it

Shamar has been lazy around camp. Heck he hasn't just been lazy, he has perfected laziness as an art form. But he is also loud and confrontational. So if you don't like what Shamar is doing in camp, you should not do what Reynold did and confront Shamar. Shamar is more than capable and willing to defend himself verbally. So giving him an opening to fight back can only lead to a giant fight, and another reminder to your tribe mates (who are superfans that know what goats are) that it might be a good idea to keep the volatile lazy guy around so that you can go to the end with him. That ends up being a problem for your ultimate goal to vote out the volatile lazy guy. Just go about your attempts to get Shamar voted out, but keep it quiet.

Sherri and her alligience to Shamar

Sherri actually handled Shamar well, though that's pretty easy when he's on your side. Telling him to continue to do what he does is a pretty smart strategy. In fact, I think that Boston Rob rode that strategy to a million dollars on Redemption Island.

Philip's Philipness and how to handle it.

Malcolm has this right - let Philip do what he wants, and let him think he is running the show. But be prepared to cut him loose once his targets do not align with yours.

Reynold's bulge and how to handle it

Reynold was hitting a couple of homeruns this week - he seemingly was the only one to search for an immunity idol, and found it. He then told us that he wasn't going to tell anybody about it, and was goign to hide it because he didn't want anybody to notice the bulge in his pants and think that he had an immunity idol. It was going oh so well...

Until Laura saw that Reynold had a bulge in his pants right before tribal council. A great bit of observation by Laura, even if she couldn't do anything about it before they went to tribal council. But having that in your pocket is as good as anything.

Your first tribal council and how to handle it

I want to give the fans a bit of a pass for what happened at this tribal council. It's the first tribal council that they have ever participated in, and they are uber fans. They all probably went in thinking that they were going to be Jeff Probst go to person, giving the quips that would appear on the show, but while not revealing any information. Instead, they basically were giving up their games.

It's never a good idea to let your opposition know that you see them as a threat, but that's what happened with the misfits. They pointed out the existance fo the foursome, which tipped them off to be a bit concerned. And then the foursome attacked Shamar, which could have been a problem if they weren't so transparent with their attempts to get everybody to vote them out. And Shamar defended himself by simply saying that others were trying to tear him down, which is a non-answer to the legitimate criticisms being levelled against him.

An awkward bulge and how not to handle it

More on this later, but there's a couple of options that Laura had. She could have kept the information to herself, and then shared it with her alliance in secret after tribal council. That's not a bad option really. It wouldn't have been that difficult to imagine going into tribal council that Reynold would have kept the idol for himself, and then you could have split the votes and dealt with the idol next. Or, Laura could have used the information to work out a deal with Reynold.

Of course, there is a risk involved. If Reynold plays the idol for Allie, then you lose a goat in Shamar . Plus, not coming forward immediately would cause people to wonder about your trustworthiness. And there is always the worst case scenario - that others decide to just give the foursome a boost and vote out Shamar, and you find yourself in the minority with the majority holding an immunity idol.

No matter what, though. You can't reveal that you have an immunity idol. But more on that in a minute.

The foursome and how to handle it

Vote somebody out who was a member of that group. Pretty simple really.

Best play of the week

I have to give it to Laura, who I think came up with the best way to out Reynold having the hidden immunity idol, even if she didn't get him to play it. By mentioning that much fabled bulge and staring Reynold down, she essentially shamed him into showing his hand, so to speak. With him being in the minority alliance, they have him in a spot where he has to use the idol at the next immunity, or risk getting voted out, probably by a split vote 3-3-3 vote. It ended up being a nicely conceived solution to a potentially sticky problem.

Worst play of the week

On the opposite end of that play was Reynold who blew the chance to deny having an idol, and followed it up by trying a weak "I'm going to play the idol, I swear" passive aggressive move. Nobody believed that you would use the idol Reynold. Laura even admitted that she saw the idol too late to change anything going into tribal council. So instead of taking out your bulge and waving it around, make a horribly sexist joke about Laura checking out your bulge ("I want to know why Laura is checking out my bulge before tribal council.") and keep the idol to yourself. At a minimum, you leave them guessing as to whether you have it or not. At best, you sow discontent in that alliance.

Final thoughts on the booted player:

Honestly, I feel bad for Allie. She seems like a true fan, and I couldn't imagine getting to live a dream of playing Survivor only to get booted first from your tribe and only play for 6 days. But as a fan, she has to know that getting involved in a showmance is a terrible idea and only courting disaster (heck, South Pacific wasn't that long ago, and we saw what happened to Ozzy's island girlfriend when others thought they were getting too cozy.) She'd also have to realize that cuddling is the first tell as to who is aligned with who. Even with all of that history, she still decided to align with Reynold, Eddie and Hope in the foursome alliance. And that bit her in the butt.

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 1 Thoughts and Best/Worst Plays of the Show

Some thoughts after a pretty good first episode of Survivor: Caramoan (Fans vs. Favorites 2)...

General thoughts on the twist

The Fans vs. Favorites twist produced one of the best season ever (#3 in my most recent rankings), so going back to it was a no-brainer. With that said, without Erik's giving up of the immunity necklace, we'd have a much different thought about it. Erik likely would have won thanks to an immunity run, and superfans would have been frustrated that strategy didn't win out. It's also forgotten how much the fans deferred to the favorites. This season we could be headed down the same road.

A lot of smart people (see the Rob Has a Podcast podcast) think that the fans need to be intermingled with the favorites as soon as possible, in order to produce the best TV. I think that the better game would occur if the favorites and fans do not get intermixed until much later.

One of the reasons that the fans end up deferring to the favorites is because they haven't had that much experience playing the game and actually surviving on the island. The longer they play, the more confident they get in their survival and Survivor skills. This gives them more confidence to stand up against the favorites. As well, it lets the fans build more stable alliances, which they would be more likely to keep than after 6 days.

The one major danger with my proposal is that we would probably end up with another Pagonging situation if we go into a merge with equal fans and favorites. Of course, if there are more favorites and fans, you still get to see the favorites manipulate the fans in the same way that you would if they were integrated early in the game. The only difference is that the fans would actually hold some power, presumably being swing votes in a favorites power struggle.

The problem with being a fan

The fan complex was best exemplified by Matt after the reward challenge. The fans had just been beaten very handily by the favorites, with the favorites showing that they are actually more dominant physically than the fans. What does Matt do? Laugh in amazement that he is playing with these favorites. As I said above, the fans haven't had much of a chance to adjust to actully playing Survivor. If they continue with the "I can't believe I'm playing" attitude, they are going to get destroyed. It's also something that will end up favoring the immunity threats - I can see Reynold doing well because of this very reason - he's strong enough to continue on until a merge, then he can start winning individual immunity.

One thing that will hurt Reynold is his lack of awareness of his cuddling situation. He was smart to target Allie as an alliance partner; his read on her being not as noticable was pretty strong. But then he decided to start a showmance with her and get a little more frisky at night, and everybody notices this. You have to be extra aware of what you are doing on both sides. The favorites have seen most everything before, so they know what to look for. But the fans also know what to look for; they are fans for crying out loud! They pay attention to everything on the show and know all of the key things to look for as well!

There's also something to be said for not arguing strongly in the early going, unless you know that everybody else is on your side. In the case of Matt, he chose to fight with Shamar over whether fire or shelter was more important. Shamar came across like he was in the right because it wouldn't be that hard to last one night while sleeping on the beach. Not getting water would be much worse for them. And as an added bonus, Shamar gets to be the hero when he creates fire. Matt is lucky that Michael threw him a lifesaver and offered a floater alliance to him.

The problem with being a favorite

The favorites are in a better situation than the fans. They are more experienced, so it is easier for them to adjust and get going quickly. They know how to handle victory and defeat. And they know what did and did not work the last time they played and can adjust accordingly. This last advantage is a double-edged sword though.

You can know what your weaknesses are, but you don't necessarily know how much you have to do to correct it. So there's a chance that you will overcorrect and end up blowing your game. Take Francesca, for example. She knew that her problem last time was being in a minority alliance and getting picked off. This time, her approach was to create an alliance with everybody and then she woudl be good. However, she seemed to think that as soon as she got the alliance agreement from everybody, she was done. That left Dawn and Andrea questioning their alliance, as Francesca wasn't talking game enough, and ended up leading to her eventual torch snuffing.

Phillip also fell into the same problem. He looked good initially, realizing that you want to run the alliance but not appear to be running it. And he started out fine, but lost his way when he talked to Erik. It was a mismash of passive/aggressive positioning and awkward attempts to pretend like he wasn't running an alliance, which Erik saw through immediately, going so far as to call it a Boston Rob strategy. Phillip might have won the day, but the war is very much in doubt.

There's also your previous experiences working against you. Even though there has been no indications about a hidden immunity idol, Francesca came up with a scheme to split votes to guard against a hidden immunity idol that didnt' exist, and would have ended with her getting voted out. Brandon starts to get paranoid about Mikayla Andrea, and so he and Erik come up with a plan to instead vote out Andrea without telling Cochran (who would be a member of their alliance.) The best way of acting woudl be to keep things simple and to vote out whoever they wanted to go (Phillip, Corrine, Andrea, Jeff Probst, whoever.) But instead they over complicated the plan and could have screwed themselves over.

They weren't screwing around with the challenges

A reward challenge minutes after arriving on the island which is basically tackle football? Check. An immunity challenge that involves going up and down a 4 story structure? Check. If this is an indication what to expect for the challenges this year, I'm looking forward to it.

If anyone has a hidden immunity idol...

Did anybody see any hidden immunity idol clue or other reference to it prior to Francesca bring up the possible existance. Maybe this year isn't going to be that big of a year for hidden immunity idols?

It isn't just important to have impressions of others, it is important to know what impression others have of you.

 - Laura on Michael (paraphrased) "He's looking around and you can tell that his is very observant. He's a strategist like me and maybe we can work together."
 - Michael on Laura (paraphrased) "She looks like she's 18. What is she doing here?"

Making opinions of other players is important. But even more important is knowing what others think of you. It's a poker skill of sorts, being aware of the personality and habits that you are projecting to others, but an essential one. Without it, you end up in trouble. That Laura example is one. A bigger one was Corrine and Francesca. Corrine I'm sure thought that everything was fine between her and Francesca, but Francesca took her silence on talking game to be out of character, and caused Francesca to distrust Corrine and lobby for her ouster. That could have been disasterous.  It also works for Francesca not knowing that her lack of discussion of game with Andrea and Dawn would make her a possible target.

Best play of the week:

Michael's decision to talk to Matt and tell him that he was willing to work with him to determine what the best path was for the both of them was great. You pull in somebody who will now be loyal to you, and you give yourself options. Do you want to work with the Showmance 4? No problem. Think they might be a threat? Vote one of them out. And you can still manuever after that, as your 2 plus the minority 3 would then become a majority. Giving yourself many options in the early going is an incredibly strong position to be in.

Worst play of the week:

Erik and Brandon's plan to switch the vote at the last possible second to Andrea. If you wanted to create confusion from your alliance and risk a blown vote which ends up costing your alliance, this was a brilliant move. In all other cases, not so much. The worst part is that it was an unnecessary move unless you really thought that keeping Andrea around would mean that she would be able to destroy your alliance. Once you vote out Phillip or Corrine, you have a 6-3 advantage (including Andrea in the 6). You can vote out Andrea on the next vote and still keep a 5-3 majority. And on he next vote, Andrea won't be expecting getting voted out. She'll think that he actions cemented her loyalty. Keep It Simple, Stupid is good advice for most Survivor plays, but it is unbelievably excellent advice in the early going. People are still getting used to each other. There's no point to messing things up and drawing attention to yourself being a paranoid person.

Final thoughts on the booted player:

Francesca was essentially the 11th fan: she wasn't in the game long enough to have any sort of real experience to fall back on, and it showed. She chose the wrong speed for all of her plays: she was fast in the early going, then came to a stop in the middle, before speeding up her game again at the end, trying to plan for something that she didn't really need to. If she ever comes back, she might get a better feel for how the dynamics of the game are.