Thursday, May 02, 2013

Survivor: Caramoan Episode 12 Power Rankings

6. Sherri

Sherri has the same problem as Eddie - her chances of winning are basically reliant on the jury being bitter. Thus far, it doesn't look like we are headed to a bitter jury so Sherri's chances to win are even worse than Eddie. At least Eddie can claim to be a part of a group that tried to flip the game; Sherri really doesn't have that.

Preferred Final Tribal: A final 2 with Eddie

5. Eddie

I've already predicted that Eddie is going to make final tribal. I just don't see how he can win.

Preferred Final Tribal: A final 3 with Cochran and Dawn. The theory here is that if Dawn and Cochran make final tribal, they are going to have to wear the elimination of everybody and they are both going to try to make the argument that they were teh main reason for making final tribal. Eddie could somehow split this and just say he did nothing bad and if the jury is angry enough, they will vote for Eddie. This wouldn't work for a final 3 with, say, Brenda and Erik, but a definite pair who crushed their alliance and their opposition? That might work.

4. Brenda

Andrea was right when she was making the plea to get rid of Brenda. Brenda hasn't angered anybody, and has been a pretty good challenge competitor. She can easily win if she makes the final tribal. That's why I think the odds are that she won't make it unless she goes on an immunity run.

Preferred Final Tribal: (From here on out, just assume Eddie and Sherri unless I specify otherwise).

3. Dawn

Dawn is third because I think that she's going to be the one that everybody is concerned about in the final four. They could see her as a threat to win. And even if she doesn't get eliminated, her telling on multiple people and their plans could come back to haunt her.

2. Cochran

Cochran is riding a great run, having eliminated his biggest rival in Andrea and looking like he's in the driver's seat. With that said, not having the cover of Andrea means that Cochran has put a bigger target on his back, especially with 2 immunity challenge wins under his belt. It might end up coming down to himself and Dawn as the final 2 options for the final torch snuffing.

1. Erik
Before I get to Erik's future chances, let me defend Erik for a minute. Yes, him giving the idol to Andrea was questionable in a vacuum. He could have easily just kept it for himself and it would have been legit under the rules. But consider it from his point of view. If he keeps the idol for himself, which he was only searching for because Andrea shared the info and his entire alliance was searching for it, he could come across as greedy and scheming. Given the tone of the tribe was to look for a big move, that could have easily been a blindside of him. Also, if he made final tribal at the expense of Andrea and the others thanks in part to the idol, that pains him in a negative light as well. When you consider that his strategy has been to have no strategy, this would go counter to the image he wanted to portray.

As for his chances of winning, Erik has two challenges to winning. First, he needs to make final tribal, and that might mean putting together a run of immunity victories. It's certianly a possibility that I wouldn't be surprised by if it happened.

The second challenge is that Erik needs to communicate his story clearly at final tribal. He needs to finesse it, saying that he wasn't the mastermind behind the plans to put the jury on the jury, but he was the one who made the decision tribal after tribal as to who was going home. He needs to emphasize that he was integral to the results, but not the planning. That he had decisions to make but not plans to be designed. If he does that, he stands a great chance of winning.

Preferred final 3: Dawn and Cochran. Erik can be carried by them strategically, but he can dominate them during the game to make the point that he is more than just a guy who came up with a plan. As well, he can contrast himself with Cochran and Dawn's actions and look good.

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