Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 7 Power Rankings

13. Laura B.
KISS strikes again! In this case, it's just the general principle, not the strategy. Why tell Vytas that he's going, and why tell him in front of everybody else? I undertand that Laura is an honest person, and I get her desire to be nice to Vytas, who she felt a connection with. But have some common sense. You saw what your tribe did to Kat, Laura. Why do something that puts the attention on you and your trustworthiness? You aren't the leader of the group, and you were quite content to be a follower. So to take it upon yourself to speak for the tribe was foolish at best, especially with a bunch of veterans of the game. And that's what put you in Redemption Island.

9.  Hayden

This wasn't the best of weeks for Hayden. His girlfriend lost at Redemption Island, and before that desperately wanted him to switch with her. Even after that, Kat built up Hayden, calling him a great guy, saying he had a better chance of winning the game than she did (damning with faint praise, but still) and just basically saying all of his good qualities. If Hayden wasn't on people's radar before, he is now.

But there is a silver lining for him. He seems to have joined the Tyson/Gervase anti-Baskauskas crew. That could carry him very far; if not, he'll have to play a little bit harder and try to ingrain himself into the Baskauskas brothers group.

1.  Vytas

I mean, I want to write a lot about this. I do. But I'm not sure what else is to be said beyond Vytas is a very quick learner. He's playing his brother's game, only with more aplumb. He has his tribe read, and knows what he should say to stay in the game. He also knows that he's going to have to be dishonest, and is willing to do it. He handled being told that he was going home with calm and dignity. Then he got his game on and pushed Galang to where he wanted them to go.

His big hurdle to overcome? The Gervase/Tyson block of votes. Both Baskauskas brothers can not have immunity, so the one that doesn't is the one that will be targetted first.

Overall Rankings:

20. Rupert
19. Colton
18. Rachel
17. Marissa
16. Candice
15. Brad
14. Kat

13. Laura B.
12. Laura M.
11. John
10. Monica
9.  Hayden
8.  Katie
7.  Gervase
6.  Ciera
5.  Caleb
4.  Tyson
3.  Aras
2.  Tina
1.  Vytas

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 7 thoughts

The KISS Strategy, spelled out.

"So at Tribal, I got eliminated. Apparently we had an issue with trust. Monica was feeling a little bit on the outs, and so was Laura B and that was the perfect place for Vytas to swoop in for the kill."

- Kat

Missing from that statement from Kat is an acknowledgment that Kat was the reason why Monica was feeling on the outs, and Kat was the reason why Vytas was able to swoop in. (Though it wasn't too much of a swooping. It was more of a draft behind the other birds.)

In essence, Kat was the latest to avoid the strategy that everybody who plays Survivor needs to use. I've referred to it a few times in the last season, but I think I need to spell it out a bit more.

The Keep It Simple, Stupid strategy for Survivor is as follows. Before a vote, you should only campaign against another player who is not the target of the vote in these scenarios:

1. You are the target for this vote.
2. An important ally for furthering your position in the game is the target of this vote.
3. If voting out the person you are going to campaign against would further your standing in the game considerably AND you feel as though your campaigning has a strong chance of succeeding.

(There is one other possible reason to campaign against somebody else, but that's for the advanced version of the KISS strategy.)

This should be pretty obvious, but time after time, people fall prey to the overthinking of Survivor. In Kat's case, her attempt to float Monica's name was ill advised for a few reasons, but the big one is that it failed the KISS Strategy:

1. Kat wasn't the target of the vote when she campaigned against Monica.
2. Nor was one of Kat's important allies a target - Vytas was the target.
3. From Kat's POV, voting out Monica might or might not have had a good chance of succeeding.

That's irrelevant to the fact that voting out Monica would not have improved Kat's standing the game signficantly. If anything, it would weaken it, showing herself to be untrustworthy and to weaken her alliance. In essence, the opposite of what she wants to happen.

The most important thing about the KISS Strategy is that it fits in with any other strategy that you want to play. Want to be a floater? Just follow those rules. Want to lead a tribe? Follow those rules. Want to be the second in command? Follow those rules. Want to be the athletic challenge beast? Follow those rules.

There is a downside to this strategy, in that it is vulnerable to being blindsided. But that's where your own social skills come in, and you have to rely on your instincts. KISS isn't a fail safe way to win the game, but it is the basis of any good strategy to do well in the game. In short, follow the KISS Strategy and your game will improve immensly.

 

The KISS Strategy, when you aren't preparing for tribal council

 

This is even simpler strategy to follow. When you aren't going to tribal council, follow these guidelines:

 

1. Assume that your actions are always being noticed
2. Assume that anything you tell a non-alliance member in confidence isn't truly in confidence
3. Assume that anything you tell an alliance member is in confidence, unless it is negative towards another alliance member. In that case, follow 2.
4. Never assume that you are speaking for your tribe/alliance/alliance mate unless you have been explicitly told that you can speak for them.

It's truly that simple.

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 5 Power Rankings

16. Brad

Brad Culpepper's problem in the game wasn't strategy; his moves taken in a vacuum were actually smart. Creating the all-men's alliance was just a smart read of the numbers. Reading John's actions with the immunity idol clues as untrustworthy, then adding in his loyalty to the then dominant at Redemption Island Candice and you get somebody who it might be better to take out now, rather than wait.

His thoughts on getting rid of Caleb? Also smart. Leaving a player without a loved one in the game is actually more risky, because they can make the best move for them in the game and not worry about how it will reflect on their loved one, or how their loved one will react to the player's plans.

Where Brad Culpepper went wrong is in trying to defend himself to whomever would listen. Everything that he said when combined with his actions just yelled "I am a threat to each and every one of your games. I am only loyal to you until I do not need to be." He started day 1 when he (honestly) said that He wouldn't feel that bad if Monica won a tarp if she had been suffering through a difficult time at her camp. When Marissa questioned him, he did 2 things. The first was to apologize to everybody while justifying the comment and saying "I'm going to give my all in the challenges, I swear. The second was to immediately target Marissa. The second was smart. Target the person who was questioning you. Get them before they get you. The problem is that the apology made it necessary to for Brad to target Marissa. By bringing attention to his comments, he gave Marissa more reason to attack him.

He defended himself at Redemption Island by saying that he outplayed everybody. He denied creating an all male alliance at tribal council, even though it was clear to everybody that this was in place.

When he voted John out, he came back to his camp to defend his move by saying that John shouldn't have trusted him. How exactly is his tribe supposed to feel when he declares that somebody shouldn't have trusted him? And he only compicates matters by throwing Caleb's name out, then giving too much of an honest answer about the dangers of a player without a loved one in the game. That was enough for Caleb to flip.

12. Laura B.

Laura should be held up as a cautionary tale for anybody who thinks that they could play well in a tribe consisting of them and the rest being returning players.

The biggest issue is that her actions are so transparent to these players. They've already been nervous for the first tribal council, so when Laura says that she's excited for it, they all know she is lying. When she brings up the ENTIRELY TRUTHFUL note that Monica and Laura M were not pleased to have been sitting on the bench for the immunity challenge, the other players dismiss it. They know what people do when they know they are on the bottom of the tribe; they try to stir up stuff to get other people targetted. And this is all that seemed to be. At tribal, when Laura says that she is confident she is a big part of the tribe, we get a shot of Kat rolling her eyes as if to say "You're only confident that you are a big part of the tribe because we let you be confident."

Naturally, it doesn't help that Laura can be even more awkward in the social game than her husband. How she approached the discussion about the other women wanting to play the challenge was terrible. Repeating "I just wanted to put it out there" makes it seem like that this story is something you made up. She also has the same issue that Rupert has, in that she thinks that being helpful around camp means that you are integrated with the tribe.

So all you Survivor hopefuls, hope that you end up on a season with very few (if any) returning players. It will be better for your game in the long run.

3. Vytas

We got a great view as to how strong of a player Vytas is in this episode. He is definitely cut from the same cloth as his brother, in knowing who has to be finessed, who can be played a little harder and who to just stay on the right side of.

His read on the Caleb situation is pretty close to being spot on. Caleb is going to be a threat to flip at any point and people aren't going to completely trust him. And Caleb is going to need to be coddled, so he doesn't do another crazy thing. And while his attempts to relate were laughable and/or stereotypical, it was at least a good attempt by Vytas to keep on Caleb's good side.

The only thing that Vytas read wrong? That Caleb's actions will prevent people from aligning with him in the near term. Right now the issue is numbers - if the guys alliance holds up then they have it. But all the women need to do is flip Caleb and all the sudden they have the numbers. So long as Vytas factors that in, all will be good for him. But if he forgets or ignores it, then he could be in a whole lot of trouble.

Overall Rankings

20. Rupert
19. Colton
18. Rachel
17. Marissa
16. Candice
15. Brad
14. Laura M.
13. John
12. Laura B.
11. Kat
10. Monica
9.  Hayden
8.  Katie
7.  Gervasce
6.  Ciera
5.  Caleb
4.  Tyson
3.  Vytas
2.  Tina
1.  Aras

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 5 Thoughts

One thing that Survivor does not get enough credit for is how well they lay out their episodes to drive the story in the current episode, and future stories that will pay off in subsequent episodes. So kudos to the Editors/producers who created this episode. They did a great job in building up everything for this episode and further on.

Let's start with Tadhana. We got the set up for them to actually win this challenge, with us getting to see how poorly they are off. But they also set up a future storyline, with Caleb being the swing vote and seemingly having the power go to his head. We also got insight into Vytas's gameplay and his thinking process.

Meanwhile, at Galang, we had the Laura M. boot set up from the first time we saw them. Laura saying that she felt closest to Aras, and then Aras telling us that he knows what Laura is trying to do, but he's willing to get rid of her if he needs to. Then we get a misdirect of Monica possibly going because of how tight her bond is with Brad. So when Galang loses, we don't know what direction things are going.

After the commercials, we find out. We get the Laura B set up that we all expected, then we get Aras and Laura M talking. Laura M gives a confessional about how much she trusts Aras, and then Aras gives a confessional of how he wants to vote Laura M. out so that she can beat Brad Culpepper at Redemption Island and thus make Monica more valuable to his alliance. Cue Monica reacting to the idea of sending Laura M to Redemption Island and thinking it could be a threat to her husband. We get the last words before voting at tribal council, which are Laura M. telling Laura B. that she doesn't know the sting of having Jeff snuff your torch. And finally, we get Laura M. confidently confiding in the camera as she votes out Laura B that "there is only room for one Laura on this island."

This sets up a giant blind side, with Laura M starting to realize that she is getting the boot after 2 votes, and Kat's reaction of hiding her face, trying to hid her shame in the blindside.

All in all a well laid out episode that paid off this episode, and gave us a bit more for the future.

Survivor: Blood vs. Wager Episode 4 Power Rankings and thoughts

I've been thinking about why there seems to be more blind sides in seasons where at least half the cast are returning players, and I think I've come up with the reason.

First, let's address the returning players. They have played before and know what to expect. They are confident in their strategy, and are willing to add in more risk taking, having already played the game and gotten the "getting voted out" jitters out of the way. They know they would have to make bold moves, and likely have a reinforced feeling that they need to strike before somebody striked at them. That makes them more likely to make a bold move and blindside somebody. As well, given that they know most of these people, a blind side makes things easier in the short term, which is really the only time frame that most players consider when making decisions. So the more returning players we see in a game, the more likely we are to see blind sides from them. But what about new players?

The seasons where you have a mix of half returning players and half new players are unique. Two of the seasons have been Fans vs. Favourites, and the third is this season, a Loved Ones season. The common theme among those new players is that they have a unique desire to play the game. They weren't recruits; they were either fans, or people who were already tangentially related to the game of Survivor. They are playing Survivor because they are interested in playing the game, not because they were recruited and thought it was a good chance to get on TV. This means that they are interested in the experience of playing the game, and one of the big things on Survivor is executing the blindside. So when somebody gets a blindside on their mind, it starts an avalanche effect, with the idea gaining momentum until it becomes reality. Then the cycle repeats as the players enjoy the rush of having blindsided somebody.

It also goes back to why the new players are at such a disadvantage in a season like this; the returnees act with a purpose, while the new players act to have the experience. In a season with only two or three returning players, the new players can overcome this through sheer numbers. But in a season where the returnees are equal in number, they can leverage their experience to take control of the game easily.

So next week, when Tadhana loses immunity again and blindsides yet another player, it will not be a surprise. Instead, it will just be the Survivor circle of life continuing on.

This week in WTF Tribals...

I have to admit, I wasn't expecting this week's tribal council to play out as it did. It certainly had an effect on my power rankings this week, for multiple reasons.

First, I have to give Caleb full credit for his play. He knew that based on what Brad had said in the past, Caleb was going to be targetted at some point. Even if Brad was telling the truth for this vote, what about the next one? So it was better for Caleb to strike now, when he could at least put together a 3-3 tie and threaten the rocks. The other thing that made this a brilliant play was that his side of three was going to be much more united in their front. He, Katie and Ciera all knew they were the next on the block; they just weren't sure which order it would be. By forcing a 3-3 tie, they were taking back control. If they end up with a tie, then the rocks are pulled out and there's a 50% chance that they end up with the same result. But there's also a 50% chance that they are vaulted into power with either Hayden or Vytas getting voted out.

This leads to the player I was most disappointed in. Hayden tried very hard to convince himself to vote for Brad. In the end, he let his loyalty get the best of him and voted for Ciera. This was the wrong choice by a long shot. The only reason to vote Ciera is if you think the other side is going to break. In this case, he needed to read the other side and realize that they weren't going to break. And if they weren't going to break, then the best thing that can happen if you stay with the same vote is that the rocks get pulled out, which would then give you a 25% chance of getting the boot. Since having a 0% chance of getting the boot is better than having a 25% chance of getting the boot, you have to switch your vote and try to mend the fences with the other side. Better somebody else get voted out than you, especially when it seems as though you have a good relationship with the other side.

Vytas understood this, and that's why he did switch his vote. He knew where this was headed, and he made a move to make sure he wasn't going to be impacted by other people's desire to make a point.

(I want to write about Brad, but I think I'm going to hold off until he is officially gone from the game. Burying him right now is just begging for Brad too make a great comeback from Redemption Island.)

Overall Rankings

20. Rupert
19. Colton
18. Rachel
17. Marissa

16. Brad
15. Candice
14. John
13. Laura B.
12.  Monica
11. Laura M.
10. Kat
9.  Katie
8.  Hayden
7.  Gervasce
6.  Ciera
5.  Tyson
4.  Caleb
3.  Vytas
2.  Tina
1.  Aras

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 3 Power Rankings

10. Brad
It is amazing to hear Hayden and John discuss Brad, as though they were brainwashed by him. They called him a great team builder, but, uh, they haven't won a challenge yet. This carried over to tribal council, where Hayden willingly jumped off the cliff to support Brad's plan to further Brad's game.

But Brad didn't think things through enough. By targetting John, he eliminated a shield and painted a target on himself. What happens next week if Tadhana loses immunity again? They'll start looking around and realize that Brad has intentionally been weakening his tribe in order to simply strengthen his position. That would make Brad an easy target.

Not only that, but Brad just pissed off somebody who's likely to come back from Redemption Island in John, but also the person who has won each Redemption Island challenge thus far in Candice. Add to that the general hatred that Galang has for Brad, and he's basically a dead man walking at this point. His best bet would be to go to Redemption Island and chill out for a while and then win his way back. At the same time, he needs to change his personality to be more humble, and more deferential. Without that deference, he won't be trusted enough to stay in the game.

6. Tyson

It was an eventful week for Tyson. He lost his girlfriend at Redemption Island, he put Brad on notice that he was going to be a target should a swap or merge happen, and he hurt his shoulder in a challenge.

That hurt shoulder is going to be a problem for Tyson, but maybe not as much as you would think. We saw in Heroes vs. Villains the Heroes decide to keep James, who had a mangled knee over Tom, who was completely healthy but was out of favour in his tribe. Tyson is in a strong alliance right now. Unless that alliance feels as though they are in trouble going forward in challenges, they will stay with Tyson. And should he make a merge? That shoulder injury is going to take away the bigger targets on his back. There are going to be bigger immunity threats to get rid of, and it might be enough to carry Tyson to final tribal.

3. Vytas
1. Aras

Aras always comes across as a calm, cool and collected person. He owns a business, and is always willing to help somebody out, to offer encouraging words, and to want serenity around him. That made his desire to beat his brother Vytas even more startling.  But his explanation made sense - Vytas was the bully of the brothers, the one who was willing to torture his little brother. What made it interesting was the juxtaposition with Vytas's view of the rivalry between the brothers.

Vytas wanted to win as well, but for different reasons. He wanted to prove that he wasn't a screw up, and that he was just as good as Aras. His brother was the athlete in college; the one who had his life together. Vytas was the junkie, and this competition was his opportunity to show that he was as good as his brother.

The battle itself seemed like it was scripted by Vince McMahon. The brother looking to avenge himself against his bully brother (Aras) had the upper hand, but the other brother (Vytas) was stubbornly holding on. Aras told his brother to reset, so they could continue to have an honorable battle, one that should Aras win, would prove his superiority to his bully brother. But Vytas had a trick up his sleeve, and lived up to the sneaky, bully label that Aras gave him. Vytas attacked Aras instead of resetting like Aras offered. But Aras battled back, and eventually knocked Vytas from the floating surface and Aras won the game.

In this microcosm, we got to see what the Aras/Vytas rivalry was based on, and why Aras would come back. Aras didn't have to prove that he was a great Survivor player; his victory had already shown that. But Aras did have to prove that he could beat his brother. The immunity challenge on tonight's show was a giant step to proving this.

Overall Rankings

20. Rupert
19. Colton
18. Rachel

17. Marissa
16. Candice
15. John
14. Laura B.
13. Laura M.
12. Kat
11. Katie
10. Brad
9.  Caleb
8.  Gervasce
7.  Ciera
6.  Tyson
5.  Hayden
4.  Monica
3.  Vytas
2.  Tina
1.  Aras

Survivor: Blood vs. Water Episode 3 Thoughts

Quitters are terrible

We're all agreed that we're done with Colton, right?

I'll admit that I was intrigued with Colton coming back. It had been 2 years since he played last; maybe he had matured and improved his game. Sure enough, I was wrong.

What he said right before Redemption Island was most telling: "Unless you have people who are willing to roll with you, there isn't a lot you can do." As a fan of Survivor, he has to know how wrong he is. If you don't have people who are willing to roll with you, you can't directly control the game. That doesn't mean that you are out of the game, it means that you are not the leader. Heck, it wouldn't be too hard for you to flip on your tribe come the merge, so long as you are willing to be patient, and put your faith in others. That, ultimately, was Colton's downfall.

He had one way of playing - bullying people and getting his way. When he met resistance to that, he decided to quit instead of adapting. That's a sign of the immaturity that he had during One World, and continued on to here. It's a sign of a desperate person who doesn't have the acumen to adapt, to

Colton hasn't grown. He hasn't truly reflected on his One World experience and figured out how to better himself from it (superficial changes to any bigotry he might have demonstrated in the past aside.) He's still the same spoiled brat who can't handle when things do not go his way, and would rather remove himself from a difficult situation than try to fight throw it, even if fighting throw it means failure. Colton doesn't want to fail above all else; he doesn't want to have to confront knowing that his best wasn't good enough during this game. He'd rather leave believing a lie, that he is a good strategist in the game of Survivor, then to have it proven wrong and have to learn from it.

If he gets cast again on Survivor, then CBS or the executive producers have made a huge mistake. Colton doesn't deserve another chance; he's proven that he doesn't respect the game or himself enough to have the honour to play again.

(FWIW, Jeff Probst handled this as he had to. If he wanted to continue to hold the respect of the audience and continue to be their voice in the game, he had to lay into Colton as he did.)

And with the negative out of the way...

The stupidest blind side ever?

That isn't as crazy as it sounds.  What purpose did blind siding John serve? It weakened the tribe due to the fear that John has an immunity idol. How does that make sense?

I get how it makes sense for Cierra as she was blatently told that she would be voted out if John wasn't. If I stretch, I can understand why it would make sense for Katie. By voting out John, she can put an emphasis on Brad next should they fail. That would protect her (and Cierra.) But Hayden and Vytas? It makes no sense for them. They had a solid 5 person alliance. And now their alliance is 4, they've pissed off two people at Redemption Island who are most likely to return and they made their tribe significantly weaker.  Bravo gents.

Really, Tadhana is following the same path as the fans from last season, and could use some sort of tribal switch to happen soon. Otherwise, they are going to remain an also ran in challenges and they will continue to get picked off one by one, until a merge comes and they get destroyed by the returning players.

Tadhana, you had a chance to see what happened to the fans last year when they played the game to keep one player's game strong. That person got to the end and then lost, but everybody else lost, and lost horribly. You still have time to stop this, but you need to unite against your common cause (in this case, Brad.) Thus far, we have not seen anything that would indicate they are capableo f switching mid-stream.