Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Survivor: One World Power Rankings (4/11)

(Note: I'm using a new method to title my posts, mostly because I can't remember what episode number this is. I guess that is what happens when you haven't blogged in over a month.)
These power rankings are based on my opinion of who has the best chance of winning the game.  

No hope

9. Tarzan 

Tarzan is the evolution of the Phillip Sheppard character. He is the "crazy man" who isn't so crazy and is perfectly set up to come to the end to lose at the jury. But as the game has evolved around Tarzan, he has to be considered a threat to win if he makes it to the final tribal council against two women (specifically Kim and Chelsea.) This wouldn't be because of his own play, but because the jury (or specifically the men) feel angry at how they were voted out.

Remarkably, the jurors that we have seen thus far (Jonas, Michael and Jay) have all seemed even-handed in their exit confessional. They do not complain about being blindsided, nor do they complain about those who arranged their exit. Instead, they congratulate the other players for getting them, and then they move on. Hopefully this kills the "Ponderosa causes group voting" theory that is being floated by some fans and former players.

8. Leif

Leif had a good showing this week at the immunity challenge. I'm not sure it will continue, but if it does then he is caught in a catch-22 situation. He helps to build his resume for final tribal council, but he also reveals himself to be a threat and then ruins his under the radar plan. He's likely drawing dead anyway, but making himself look like more of a competitor is not going to help him later on in the game.  

Vegas still has the odds listed as 999-1

7. Troy-zan

His best hope is to run the table of immunity challenges, and let Kim make the difficult decisions on who to vote out next. Kinda a Fabio situation, only with a longer run of immunity. If that doesn't work, Troy-zan still has a hail mary he can run: He can attempt to break the New Misfits (Leif, Tarzan, Christina and Alicia) away from Kim and friends, then start to vote out the remaining players in Kim's alliance.

More than likely, he wouldn't be able to pull these players away. Alicia would need a demonstration of some sorts that showed her to be at the bottom of the women's alliance, while Leif is unreliable and Tarzan seems to have some sense of dedication to his original alliances. Troy-zan is being set up to fail at some point. It's just a question of when.

6. Christina 

In the what if world of Survivor, what would have happened if Colton had stayed in the game is one of the big ones. It also affects Christina, who was looking for some sort of support to stay in the game, but wasn't having much of it. If she goes the men have a 7-5 advantage and we might have to deal with the discussion of whether Colton is a very good player or just lucky. It would definitely be interesting to see if Kim would be able to maneuver herself to the top of the game.

5. Alicia

I actually think that Alicia has less of a chance to win than Christina at a final tribal council. However, Alicia has a much better chance of making the final tribal because of her unlikableness. To be honest, if the women stick together, she is most likely to be sitting at final tribal council with Kim and Chelsea, with Kim trying to find a way to bring out Alicia's ugliness.

4. Kat

Kim knows that she can not bring Kat to final tribal. Kat has made bonds with many of the men who are going to be on the jury; if the men choose to hold Kim responsible for their being voted out of the game, Kat would make the perfect person to ship their votes to.  

Solid backup plans

3. Sabrina

I have Sabrina ranked below Chelsea because I think that Kim will vote Sabrina out near the end of the game. Kim will recognize that Sabrina is a big threat to win the entire game, especially with Sabrina being the figurehead leader of the women's alliance. To be sure, a final three of Kim, Sabrina and Chelsea will have Kim and Sabrina battling for votes, while Chelsea ends up being an afterthought. It will be interesting to see how Sabrina reacts at final 5. Will she realize that she needs to get rid of Kim to have a better chance of winning, or will she stick with her main girls in Kim and Chelsea.

2. Chelsea 

Chelsea's best chance to win is how she is currently playing - doing her best to keep her word, winning immunity challenges and letting Kim do most of the manipulation. It's more of a Sophie Clark game than an Amber or Natalie White game but it isn't a bad game to play: Chelsea has the "I'm not Kim" factor she can play, but she can also point to the immunity wins as a positive point in her favour. What remains to be seen is whether the jury will be looking for reasons to vote against Kim, or if they are going to consider the full game before making their votes.  

The clubhouse leader

1. Kim 

I think it is tough to overstate how great of a game Kim is playing - I think we haven't seen a non-returning player dominate this game since Brian Heidik. He has played most everything with the right amount of subtlety, and the one time that she might have been in a bind, she thought on her feet and nipped the problem in the bud. There is a lot of game left, and Kim has been more aggressive in her game play now. She has also made her choice as to who she will play the rest of the game with; how everybody else will react to that is going to be an interesting plot for the rest of the game.

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