Thursday, April 14, 2011

Survivor Redemption Island Episode 9 Power Rankings

Good night, this is the end...

12. David (7)

I never bought the "so smart he's probably going to win" hype that some gave him. He struck me as somebody who didn't have the social skills necessary, and was most likely to overplay his game. Getting rid of Russell was definitely an overplay; in the end it cost him the game.

Welcome back, now get out.

11. Matt (12)
10. Mike (8)

I don't know which of these two will come back from Redemption Island; I am willing to wager that it is one of those two though. It won't matter. The only way they will make final tribal is if they go on an immunity run a la Fabio.

Living on a Prayer

9. Steve (11)
8. Ralph (10)

Pagonging in full effect.

Sacrifice on the altar of votes

7. Ashley (6)

I can see Ashley getting voted out before the last Zapatera memember as a concession to that Zapatera member to have outlasted Ashley, similiar to Adam and Candace on Exile Island when they asked to beat out Jonathan.

Let's not kid ourselves, you aren't going anywhere

6. Julie (4)

Julie could have been a contender, but chose the easy way out by getting rid of Russell. Where would she be if she went with him instead? In a group of 4 which includes 3 players who are tought to get along with. What a horrible position to be in.

Power player?

5. Philip (9)

My friend Gary made some salient points about Philip's play today, specifically that you have to get people to vote for you. I agree. I'm just not sure that what Philip did in tribal council is the reason why he won't get votes.

One truth about who votes for who is that at a minimum, the juror who is casting the vote has to respect the person who they are voting for. They don't have to like them; we've seen many examples of people voting for someone they dislike. But the juror has to be at ease with their choice. They have to be able to justify it in some way. Without some sort of respect for the player, they will not vote for them. Right now, Philip does not have the respect of anybody. While he still has time to change this (much like Fabio from last year), he needs to change this view quickly, or else his chance of winning will quickly fade.

Keep on keeping on

4. Andrea (3)

Bumped down, but she is still in a position to make a big play and get to the final three.

A new contender emerges

3. Natalie (5)

Rob's right hand girl, and the person he wants to bring to the final three. She did get on the nerve of a few of her tribemates, but not to the level of Ashley. If Rob ultimately annoys his tribe too much, Natalie is the safe place to park votes as a protest against Rob. Kind of like Amber.

It's yours to lose. Now stop trying to lose it.

2. Grant (2)
1. Rob (1)

Both Rob and Grant are making small moves which could end up destroying their end game. By eating the fish offered by Zapatera, he rebelled against Rob, who has already shown an inclination to get rid of people who even slightly cross him. Throw in Grant's apparent edge in a final tribal situation, and Rob is starting to think of getting rid of Grant.

Meanwhile, Rob seems to be misjudging who is most likely to be hated by the jury. Natalie is more likely to be liked by the jury than Ashley, but Rob is almost rewarding Natalie's loyalty over Ashley's non-likeableness by planning to bring Natalie to the final three.

Both of these moves can easily be corrected, but they are the small things that can turn into big things, that can cost someone a million dollars.

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