Survivor Guatemala: Episode 12 Recap

I'd like to thank the editors that work hard on Survivor.  Mark Burnett and Jeff Probst might be the most visible of the faces of Survivor, but the editors are the true MVPs of this show.  They do an amazing job of putting a predominant storyline into each episode, but also interweaving larger storylines.

Case in point is this week.  The overriding storyline was that Judd was becoming a liability and might be going down the same path as Jamie.  The editors showed us Judd worrying about his position, then once he was reassured his position was safe, he took an attitude of "Nobody should complain, because everybody has to go home at some point".  This nicely led into the Tribal Council where Judd was blindsided by his getting voted out, and his subsequent outburst.  Very nicely done, and fun to watch.

What was also brought into the show were these plotlines, set up in previous episodes:

1.     

a.      Danni was searching for a way to integrate herself into the Axis of Evil. 
b.      Rafe and Judd have a rivalry. 

With Judd and Steph away at the reward celebration, Danni takes her opportunity to make a move to get in Rafe's good graces, and Rafe sees an opportunity to get rid of Judd. 

2.      Steph's fall from grace continues.  She tells Judd's wife that she loves having Judd around, and then turns on him soon after finding out that he talked with Danni about making a move.  Ultimately she will have to "be punished" for her actions, and that in theory should come in the Final 2.  (I now have my doubts about this, but we'll get to this later.)

3.      Rafe acting as the puppeteer, using Steph as his front.  Rafe was the one who first suggested getting rid of Jamie, when Jamie began to look like a threat.  And then Rafe put the plan in motion to get Judd.  Also, note that he was very careful to tell Danni that she had to catch Judd and tell Steph.  While they needed to do this to get a majority of votes, it also allows Rafe to use Steph as his shelter against the repercussions of getting rid of his own alliance.  This is what Amber claimed she did during the horrible All-Stars season, only Rafe is clearly doing this, while we were left to question whether Amber actually pulled this off.

And we also get new threads started:

1.      Are Danni and Rafe a secret final 2 pairing?
2.      Why was Cindy left out of the loop on the decision to get rid of Judd?  Is she next on the chopping block?
3.      Is Lydia back in the good graces of Steph?

This is why Survivor beats every other reality TV show: it combines competition with story line seamlessly.

Onto the lists:

Most likely to win if they make to win the Final 2:
LW   TW  
1.   1.      Rafe
2.   2.      Danni
3.   3.      Cindy
4.   4.      Steph
6.   5.      Lydia
5.   -       Judd

(Congrats to Lydia on moving up on this list.  Wait...)

Most likely to win:
LW   TW  
1.   1.      Rafe
2.   2.      Danni
3.   3.      Steph
4.   4.      Cindy
5.   5.      Lydia
6.   -       Judd

Who I want to win:
1.           Steph
2.           Rafe
3.           Danni
4.           Cindy
5.           Lydia

Final 2 prediction:  Rafe over Danni (4-3)
(I think that Rafe and Danni have already made a final 2 agreement, and are going to dump Steph in the final 3, in hopes of keeping her happy by calling her a guaranteed winner etc.  Will it work?  I don't know.)