Survivor: Guatemala Episode 10 Recap

What an interesting show we had last week.  Unlike my prediction, Gary was not voted out even though he was an easy target.  In a bitter irony, Jamie was voted out because he was too paranoid about whether he was going to be voted out that week.  Too bad for Jamie, good for everybody else (including the viewers).  That Final 7 intrigue I was talking about?  Scratch that.  Now it's on.

Scattershot thoughts:

• The most caught off guard by the vote wasn't Jamie, but it was Judd.  While that wasn't too surprising (nobody sent him the memo), he was there when the seeds were initially planted by Danni and Gary.  Gary's "Let's have the strongest around at the end" speech was a move of sheer brilliance.  If she can't win, Steph wants the winner to deserve to win.  And at the same time, she understands that if she ends up in the final 2 with Lydia, Rafe or Cindy, she could lose because she was the leader of the Axis of Evil, and somebody will have to pay for their sins.  Keeping Danni and Gary around (with Judd being her final 2 partner) could be her ticket to winning.  (Of course, she doesn't seem to be considering the possibility that she could win based on her merits for leading the Axis of Evil, which could be buoyed if she actually starts winning challenges.)
• With that said, Judd has to do two things: 1) Not overreact to being on the outside of the decision to vote Jamie off.  Try to take it in stride, as opposed to being hurt. And 2) Try to solidify the Danni/Gary/Steph/Judd final 4 plan.  Part 1 is very important, but the key is part 2.  He has to realize that he is in a dangerous position; his fellow Axis of Evil mates have shown that they are willing to work with Danni and Gary when they want to or need to, and they are willing to do it without talking to him.  So he doesn't want to make waves, but if he doesn't solidify the final 4 plan, he is kissing the $1 million goodbye.
• This episode also marked the final emergence of Rafe as a threat to win the entire game.  He won immunity in a somewhat physical challenge, and he instigated the move on Jamie.  My thoughts on a Steph and Rafe final 2 are very much out of question now; one (Steph) will make a play on the other (Rafe) before too long.
• Lydia: Final 4 member because she's a part of the Axis of Evil, because she's easily disposed of at any point, or both? 

And finally, two lists:

Most likely to win if they make to win the Final 2:

1.  Gary
2.  Danni
3.  Rafe
4.  Cindy
5.  Lydia
6.  Steph
7.  Judd

(Random aside: Cindy vs. Lydia would be the best Final 2 for all of the wrong reasons.  I mean, what exactly do you ask the two?  It's not like they're going to be these super devious players who catch everybody off guard.  They are only going to make the final three if they get brought along by one of the current main players - Rafe or Steph - and they only make the Final 2 if they beat the main player in the final immunity challenge.  So right there you've eliminated a lot of the bitter questions that we normally get.  What's left beyond the cliched questions?)

And not to be confused with the first list...

Most likely to win:

1.  Rafe
2.  Gary
3.  Danni
4.  Steph
5.  Cindy
6.  Lydia
7.  Judd