Survivor: Guatemala Episode 11 Recap

Poor Gary.  The man will never win the big one, will he?  But hey, he made things interesting before he left which is better than what Jamie did.  I would assume that he was going this week regardless of what happened at Tribal Council.  Lydia's attempt to make an alliance with Danni and Gary was already known and was brought out in the open at the Tribal Council, so Gary didn't have that hammer to bring out to squash Lydia.

The random thoughts from the week:

• I need to stop making off-hand comments.  My thought last week about Lydia and Cindy being a boring final 2?  Out the window.  Lydia would get fried if she made the final 2, and if Cindy was the one to take Lydia to the final 2, she would get a lot of "Why is Lydia so deserving?" questions.
• What is with these players screwing up a good thing?  Jamie got too paranoid and got the boot because of it.  Judd gets caught lying after berating everybody else for lying and then saying that he hasn't lied.  And Lydia decides to stand up to Stephanie.
• And more about Lydia (hey, she actually was involved in the show beyond catching minnows and doing a goofy dance!)  What got into her bonnet?  She's hungry so she's going after Stephanie (who got the first two questions wrong) in the reward challenge?  Did she realize that she was basically sacrificing her (very secure) position in the game for an attempt to win a meal?  Why not divide up your targets and take a shot at Steph and at Rafe (since he's proven to be pretty strong in challenges)?  This is the difference between the best players and the hangers-on:  The best players are always considering the big picture for every small decision they have to make, while the hangers-on tend to concentrate their decisions on the short-term without looking at how this will affect their long-term game.  (See also: This challenge on Survivor Marqueasas, Shii-Ann's post/pre-merge deal making on Survivor Thailand)
• I don't know if Judd is screwed or not.  He showed the clue to Stephanie, so she knew that he was trying to trick the outsiders and then find the idol for himself.  I don't remember him showing Rafe or Cindy the real clue; if he didn't then we will get to see how much pull Steph has with Rafe and Cindy.  But his sanctimonious preaching at Tribal Council was probably the real damaging part.
• Gary might have gotten eliminated, but his hit and run on Judd was the best thing possible for Danni.  It definitely placed some doubt around Judd (as covered in the previous point), and that leaves Steph, Rafe and Cindy in a vulnerable position.  They have a final 4 spot to offer, which is better than Danni's current position.  And Steph could also make a secret final 2 alliance with her if she wanted to.  All of the sudden, Danni has hope and options.

And finally, the lists:

Most likely to win if they make to win the Final 2:
LW   TW  
3.   1.      Rafe
2.   2.      Danni
4.   3.      Cindy
6.   4.      Steph
7.   5.      Judd
5.   6.      Lydia
1.   -       Gary

Most likely to win:
LW   TW  
1.   1.      Rafe
3.   2.      Danni
4.   3.      Steph
5.   4.      Cindy
6.   5.      Lydia
7.   6.      Judd
2.   -       Gary

Who I want to win:

1.           Steph
2.           Rafe
3.           Danni
4.           Cindy
5.           Judd
6.           Lydia

Comments:  I think that Steph has played a fantastic game thus far.  She's been leading the the main alliance, and has managed to stop any attempts at a revolution.  She's also snuffed out any potential problems before they could do any damage, and has avoided any major backlash that would come from orchestrating the ousting.  Rafe has been the most surprising player this season.  I didn't expect him to be a factor in any of the challenges, but there he is, winning the immunity necklace 3 out of 4 times.  He's also been a great strategic player, making the first move to dump Jamie, while letting Steph do the heavy lifting to get it done.  It will be very interesting to see what happens when he and Steph are put into direct conflict with each other.  Danni and Cindy are pretty close together in my view; Danni is ahead right now because we've gotten to see more of her personality than Cindy's.  Hopefully that will change over the next episodes though.  And finally, if Judd or Lydia manages to win, it's time to give up the ghost and retire Survivor forever.

My predicted Final 2:  Rafe over Steph (5-2)