Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Survivor: South Pacific Episode 4 Thoughts

The Cochran/Jim/Dawn alliance should count themselves lucky that Savaii won immunity this week. If they tried to go through with their plan to get rid of Elyse, it would have went down in flames and left Jim to scramble to save face.

It's a good move for Jim to be thinking about his place in the "3+2" alliance. He knows that somebody is going to be outside of a core group of four, and he can see that it's him. So he wants to turn his problem into an advantage, and he sees his chance to turn the game on it's head in the outsiders. The outsiders (Dawn and Cochran) naturally welcome this opportunity.

Just one thing: Where is the 4th vote coming from?

We can safely eliminate Elyse as a fourth vote. We can also eliminate Ozzy, since his actions are what made Dawn want to turn in the first place. That leaves Keith and Whitney as possible targets.

Both Keith and Whitney have reasons to strike against Ozzy, as they know he has a hidden immunity idol. But why would they strike against Elyse?

Just as importanly, how can they be approached to flip? Jim couldn't approach them unless he is fully committed to making Cochran and Dawn his main alliance and then dealing with the consequences. So strike him. If Cochran and/or Dawn approach them in a situation where Savaii was going to tribal council, it would come across as a desperate attempt to save themselves for another day, and would probably be laughed off.

But now, with Savaii having immunity, they can attempt to sway Whitney and Keith to swing to their side and have it seem less desperate. They have a few days to make a better effort to convince the two, and can point out things going on between Elyse and Ozzy. Heck, that could lead to the vote bouncing to Ozzy getting voted out.

Jim's key is that he can not be involved in any of the swaying of Keith and Whitney, or else Keith and Whitney could go back to Ozzy and Elyse to get Jim out of the game and solidify their alliance with Ozzy and Elyse.

The key to making a big move isn't actually making it, it's know when the time is right. For Jim/Cochran and Dawn, the time isn't right.

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