Saturday, May 14, 2011

Survivor Redemption Island - How Everybody Can Win

As I mentioned on Thursday, this season is tough to figure out in terms of who will probably win. So, before I roll out my OFFICIAL PREDICTION on who will win, a run through why each person still in the game will win the game and will not win the game.

Mike, Matt

(Note: I'm combining these two because they essentially have the same reasoning.)

Why they will win: Because they will win the Redemption Island duel and then win all immunity challenges on route to the final tribal council. Because they are likable people who treated everybody on the jury nicely.

Why they won't win: Because they did not win all the immunity challenges. Because the jury doesn't like the idea of somebody who was not involved in playing the main portion of the game winning.

Andrea

Why she will win: Because she came back from Redemption Island and was able to engineer the ouster of Boston Rob. Or she was able to be brought to the final three and looked like a better option than either Rob or Philip. Or she benefitted from a Rob/Natalie vote split and somehow won 4-3-2.

Why she won't win: Because she did not win at Redemption Island. Because the jury did not enjoy her anger over being betrayed after she betrayed Matt in a very similiar way. Because the jury felt that her getting voted out was an indication that she did not play well.

Grant

Why he will win: Because he will come back from Redemption Island and win challenges, which he has done continually throughout the season. Because he will be able to make an argument that he was involved in the strategy of voting out everybody before him.

Why he won't win: Because he won't come back from Redemption Island. Because he will not make Final Tribal if he does not win immunity challenges. Because the jury will pair him and Rob together and vote for the third option.

Ashley

Why she will win: Because she's sitting beside Rob and Philip, and the jury is bitter about Rob running the show.

Why she won't win: Because she has annoyed most of the jury. Because she did not actively play the game until 4 days left. Because she is seen as a follower of Boston Rob, and lacking independent thought.

Philip

Why he will win: Because she wasn't lying about having the greatest final tribal council argument against Boston Rob. Because his unusual actions were an admitted put-on to make the final three. Because the jury thought it would be funny if he won.

Why he won't win: Because he's Philip.

Natalie

Why she will win: Because the jury wants a place to park their votes which isn't Boston Rob. Because the jury will find irony in Rob losing again to the girl he brought along to the end. Because she's everybody little sister, and really how can anybody vote against her? Because the game was especially tough for her since she is lacking some life expereince.

Why she won't win: Because she is only 19, and the jury will have a problem in voting to give her $1 million. Because she is seen as a puppet of Boston Rob's. Because she hasn't really played the game. Because Ashley's jury question is an epic takedown of her.

Rob

Why he will win: Becuase he dominated the game from start to finish and the jury will want to recognize this accomplishment.

Why he won't win: Because he dominated the game from start to finish and the jury will want to punish him for this.

My choice for this year's winner? I really think that Boston Rob deserves to win this season. We haven't seen a dominant point-perfect performance like this since, well, All-Stars (Thailand, if you want to only include winning performances.) At the same time, I can not shake what we have seen over the last few seasons - a jury who chose not to reward the best strategy, and instead voted for the more likeable (to them) player.

So I am choosing Natalie to win this season. She benefits from the jury's bitterness towards Rob, and wins the game.

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