Sunday, December 19, 2010

Survivor Nicaragua - Top Five Power Rankings

This season's top 5 is pretty well wide open. One player can not win. The other four could very well win with the right combination of events. With that out there, I'm going to count down who I think is most likely to win the game.

5. Dan - Funny enough, he's the most likely to make the final three as well. But his game has pretty well been non-existant. He's useless in challenges, inept strategically and merely okay socially. Safe to bring along as he's not really a threat to receive even protest votes. This is Dan in a nutshell. Best final three for him to win: None - maybe Sash and Chase if Chase really, really, really messes up.

4. Chase - He could have easily been number one if he hadn't played one of the most inept social games I have ever seen. It's not like Russell, where his anti-social game let him make it so far as he could; if Chase does things like bring Sash and Fabio on reward challenges or even blindside Jane (as opposed to telling her to her face that he was betraying her), he would be in a much better position. Favoured final three: Chase, Sash and Dan - Sash is probably still viewed as shifty so Chase has the best chance of arguing against him with some sort of "honourable" theme.

3. Sash - The first serious contender. Sash has played the most aggressive game of all the players remaining, and is probably the best strategic player remaining. He's also rubbed a few people on the jury the wrong way - this could come back to haunt him depending on his opposition. At the same time, he has an easy narrative to tell at tribal council (best strategic game), so he might be able to pull it off. Favoured final three: Sash, Chase and Dan - Sash wins if everybody is angry at Chase, especially since Sash's argument doesn't depend on him being friendly with other players.

2. Holly - Holly is one of the two most likely to win if she makes the final three. However, she ends up being placed second because she is less likely to make the final three. Given she is not that much of a threat to immunity, she will have to scramble to make sure she makes the final three. If Sash gets it in his head that he needs to get rid of Holly, she could be in trouble. Favoured final three: Holly, Dan and Chase - Sash instead of Chase makes sense as well, though Sash could try to take away Holly's narrative of running the game. Chase can not do such a thing.

1. JudFabio - Fabio is the most likable remaining player. He doesn't seem to have any enemies on the jury at all, while all the non-Dan remaining players have at leastone. He's also managed to survive his alliance falling prey to the Holly/Chase/Jane/Sash team. His story to tell the jury is very strong - he's only going to make the final three if he wins immunity two straight times, so he'll be able to show himself as a threat in the challenge, along with him being able to point to Jane's ouster as his strategic game (flipping the vote from Dan to Jane.) He only loses if he doesn't win immunity - a big if, but one he could overcome. Favoured final three - Fabio, Dan and Sash - Dan to prove that he's still loyal to his alliances and Sash to contrast himself with a player who would backstab anybody and everybody to get ahead.

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