Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Survivor: Nicaragua Episode 9 Thoughts

I'm very torn right now. I can't decide whether Brenda and Sash are playing this game smartly, or if they just think they are playing the game smartly.

I see the argument for getting rid of Marty. He is a schemer who could threaten him. As well, he's likely to not hold a grudge, so voting him out is not going to negatively impact the jury. And finally, voting him out solidifies you with at least 4 other members fo the tribe, the weaker members of the tribe who you should be able to beat in a physical challenge pretty easily, while isolating the stronger players.

The flip side of this is that they have cast their lot with a more tightly knit group in Jane/Chase/Holly. If everything goes to plan and they vote out Benry/Dan/Fabio, Sash abd Brenda will be in a position where they will be forced to play with NaOnka, and that assumes NaOnka will want to play with them. (It seems like a safe assumption, but things change.) The immunity idols they hold would be key, but even then it becomes a guessing game as to who needs to play them. And what happens if at 7 left, the remaining outsider wins immunity?

(It's also worth noting that Benry/Dan/Fabio could flip to Jane/Holly/Chase and 100% blindside one of Sash/Brenda/NaOnka, and there's very little they can do about it.)

Meanwhile Marty seemed to have his loyalty with them. His hyper agressive play method isn't difficult to channel to your needs, and it provides a decoy to your moves. Getting rid of him isn't going to destroy you on the jury; stroke his ego at final tribal and you should be okay. The risk you take is if Marty decides to rally against you, so you would have to strike first.

I'm hope that they've thought this through and have their contingency plans in place. My gut says they decided to get rid of Marty as an ultimate play - to prove to him that he doesn't run the show, and to prove to everybody else that they are running the show. That's fine so long as they don't get overconfiden; if they do then I can think of a couple of players from Survivor Marqueases who could tell them how that ends up.

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