Survivor: Nicaragua Episode 7 Thoughts

When Jimmy Johnson was voted out, I accused Marty of thinking way too far ahead in the game. After these past two episodes, I'd like to apologize to Marty, as he wasn't thinking too far ahead. Brenda and Sash, OTOH, somehow can't see the forest from the trees.

What I missed initially with Marty was that choosing Dan over Jimmy Johnson had two benefits - First, it kept an alliance mate in the game. The longer Jimmy Johnson was around, the more likely it was that his team would rally around him. Marty wanted to be the pivot point of the tribe, and that would have been impossible with Jimmy Johnson still around. Marty understood the value of being the "irreplacable one" and he wanted to take that role. Second, keeping Dan gave Marty a cushion; an easy target to be voted out by their tribe. If it came to that, he could offer up Dan as a vote if only to buy himeself an extra week. It's the strategy that Sandra basically used to win Survivor twice: anybody but me.

The brillance of how Marty has played can not be overstated. Last week, he caught on to the fact that the young players in his tribe wanted to get rid of Kelly B, so he chose to not play his immunity idol. This week, he knew there was very little that he could do beyond playing the immunity idol this week and hoping for the best. But when Sash came along with proposal to save Marty from the vote this week and give back the idol next, Marty decided to take that chance. The risk was a bit extreme for him: if he was wrong, he would be voted out this week. But if he survived, he would have the advantage of (a) getting the idol back if he survived one vote or (b) being able to lay the groundwork for Sash being duplicitous and a threat to his alliance members.

As it turns out, Sash did that for him at Tribal Council with a slip of the tongue - saying he'd worry about what to do with the idol when he could no longer trust his alliance mates. After admitting that he had the idol (which came as a shock to most everybody else at tribal council), Sash is in a position where he's either going to have to use the idol, or somehow tap dance his way out. With the merge coming up, that might be more difficult than Sash thinks it will be.