Survivor Panama Third Episode Thoughts

Welcome to my "mea culpa" post. Yes, my pick for winner of Survivor got the boot last week, and was the third person eliminated from the game. Let's see what some of my fawning words were:

All kidding aside, Misty is athletic, presumably logical given her engineering background, relates to others well (mentoring), has leadership qualities (motivational speaking) and is a well spoken person (public speaking). If this is not the favourite to win, or at least the person who will have the biggest target on their back, then I don't know who is.

At least I covered my back with that "biggest target" comment. *rolls eyes* Why did she get? She wasn't very strong in the challenges. Her plan to flirt with Austin and Nick to cement her alliance with them likely backfired, as it made her seem more desperate than she should have been. But she was also the victim of a misstep.

Austin and Nick had a great set up this week. They had made an alliance with Dan and Terry, and also with Misty and Sally. They were very safe and depending on how subsequent challenges went, they might have made it to the final four. At the very least, they did not have to decide who they were siding with for another week - Ruth Marie was isolated and wasn't very strong in challenges either, so that was an easy boot. And then who knows? Maybe the tribe can go on an immunity run and carry you to the merge, and leave Austin and Nick sitting pretty to make the final four. Instead, they made their choice and sided with Dan and Terry.

(In fairness to Austin and Nick, there is a benefit to making the decision now - if you wait too long to decide who you want to be on the outside, you will be the one who is on the outside.)

The stupidity wasn't kept to one tribe though. What exactly was Casaya thinking when they hyped up how important Bruce was to their tribe? They know that Exile Island exists, and somebody is going to have to go. Did they think that they would get to choose who went if they lost? It seems as though the winner will be the person who makes the least amount of mistakes, instead of the best moves.

Onto the list:

Most likely to win:

LW  TW 
 1   1  Terry 
 3   2  Bruce 
 4   3  Danielle   
 5   4  Courtney 
 6   5  Aras 
 8   6  Austin 
 9   7  Nick 
12   8  Dan 
10   9  Bobby 
 7  10  Sally 
11  11  Ruth Marie 
13  12  Cirie 
14  13  Shane 

Who goes this week? Ruth Marie for La Mina, and Cirie for Casaya. Ruth Marie
isn't athletically gifted, and Cirie is still on the outside of the main alliance in
Casaya. For the record though, I'm thinking that La Mina is in a lot of trouble.