And I thought I was ahead of the curve

Apparently, I wasn't the only one who noticed how the women carried the Canadian medal count at the Olympics. The bigger surprise? That the Sun published their editorial before the Star.

What's 24 hours?

Al Strachan, defending the roster choices of Team Canada (bolding mine):

In hindsight, that's a wonderful evaluation. But in the first two games, Bertuzzi was Canada's best forward. Then the $20-million civil lawsuit landed and, all of a sudden, Bertuzzi's game dried up.

That's a nice narrative. One problem though - the lawsuit landed after the first game.

Survivor Panama Third Episode Thoughts

Welcome to my "mea culpa" post. Yes, my pick for winner of Survivor got the boot last week, and was the third person eliminated from the game. Let's see what some of my fawning words were:

All kidding aside, Misty is athletic, presumably logical given her engineering background, relates to others well (mentoring), has leadership qualities (motivational speaking) and is a well spoken person (public speaking). If this is not the favourite to win, or at least the person who will have the biggest target on their back, then I don't know who is.

At least I covered my back with that "biggest target" comment. *rolls eyes* Why did she get? She wasn't very strong in the challenges. Her plan to flirt with Austin and Nick to cement her alliance with them likely backfired, as it made her seem more desperate than she should have been. But she was also the victim of a misstep.

Austin and Nick had a great set up this week. They had made an alliance with Dan and Terry, and also with Misty and Sally. They were very safe and depending on how subsequent challenges went, they might have made it to the final four. At the very least, they did not have to decide who they were siding with for another week - Ruth Marie was isolated and wasn't very strong in challenges either, so that was an easy boot. And then who knows? Maybe the tribe can go on an immunity run and carry you to the merge, and leave Austin and Nick sitting pretty to make the final four. Instead, they made their choice and sided with Dan and Terry.

(In fairness to Austin and Nick, there is a benefit to making the decision now - if you wait too long to decide who you want to be on the outside, you will be the one who is on the outside.)

The stupidity wasn't kept to one tribe though. What exactly was Casaya thinking when they hyped up how important Bruce was to their tribe? They know that Exile Island exists, and somebody is going to have to go. Did they think that they would get to choose who went if they lost? It seems as though the winner will be the person who makes the least amount of mistakes, instead of the best moves.

Onto the list:

Most likely to win:

LW  TW 
 1   1  Terry 
 3   2  Bruce 
 4   3  Danielle   
 5   4  Courtney 
 6   5  Aras 
 8   6  Austin 
 9   7  Nick 
12   8  Dan 
10   9  Bobby 
 7  10  Sally 
11  11  Ruth Marie 
13  12  Cirie 
14  13  Shane 

Who goes this week? Ruth Marie for La Mina, and Cirie for Casaya. Ruth Marie
isn't athletically gifted, and Cirie is still on the outside of the main alliance in
Casaya. For the record though, I'm thinking that La Mina is in a lot of trouble.

Housekeeping stuff

I've put together a dedicated page which stores links to all of my posts about Survivor Panama. It can be found at:

http://jayromusings.blogspot.com/2005/10/survivor-panama-posts.html

So, if the blog rolls quickly and you think you've missed an episode recap, take a look there and it should be linked.

Survivor Panama Second Episode Thoughts

Well, that was a bit disappointing. Melinda was handed a golden opportunity to flip things and get rid of Shane, but seemed too absorbed in how "hopeless" her situation was. As much as I appreciate how it could feel to be ganged up on, it's still a shame that Melinda didn't even try.

Here's what I said about Melinda:
For some reason, when I saw her picture I thought of Belinda Carlisle. Sure enough, she's a professional singer. But I don't see her doing well. She has minimal skills to help her in the wild. That can wear on others. And she doesn't seem to be a physical threat, so she can't play that up to help her in the early going.

Ultimately, her survival will be based on her likeability. If she is well-liked, she will make it to the jury and be one of "tough" vote offs that nobody wants to do but know they have to in order to win.


What went unsaid there was that if she was unlikeable, she would be getting an early boot. I don't know if she was that unliked, but she didn't endear herself to anybody. And as soon as she found out that she was the target, she folded quicker than a cheap folding chair. She deserved to go.

With that said, I really hope that Shane's alliance is solid, because he's in danger of getting voted out and replaced by somebody like a Bruce who wants to be there, and likely isn't stupid enough to out their alliance before the first vote.

Meanwhile, Terry is proving to be a dominant physical player, and he has his wits about him when it comes to making an alliance. Teaming up with the young guys is a smart move - in the short term the strongest are less likely to get the boot, and in the long term it gives your alliance the best chance of getting individual immunity wins.

The short term storyline I'm looking forward to finishing is the who will Austin and Nick choose to side with. As I mentioned, Terry is the horse to ride to the finish, but for Nick and Austin, they might not be thinking with their big head.

And now, the return of the main list...

Most likely to win:

1. Terry
2. Misty
3. Bruce
4. Danielle
5. Courtney
6. Aras
7. Sally
8. Austin
9. Nick
10. Bobby
11. Ruth Marie
12. Dan
13. Cirie
14. Shane

So who goes next week? Dan or Cirie, depending on which tribe loses. Dan for all of the reasons I listed last week, and Cirie because it's going to take a miracle for her to get into the inside of the core alliance.

Kinda spoilerish Survivor Quick Thought

Who exactly did Bobby vote for? Because there's nobody with the name that he put down on his tribe. (At least I presume the name he wrote down - his writing is just as attrocious as his spelling.)

Survivor: Panama First Episode Thoughts

The first episode of Survivor: Panama kept up its bargain for entertainment value, and twists throwing people off of their game plan.  Our first bootee was not Shane as I predicted, but instead was Tina, who I initially said this about:

Jeff Probst called her a likeable Sue Hawk. I'm not sure if that's a compliment or not. Her story is one that's sure to get a lot of play once the game is over, and apparently does come up during the series. However, I don't think that's going to be enough to keep her around for any length of time.

Well, they did cover her story in the first episode.  But it was rather brief, and was never explained to her tribemates.  Even if it had been, I don't think it would have made a difference.  Tina made a crucial error by attempting to be the leader of her tribe, and then compounded it by complaining about the rest of her tribe's work ethic.

So what about the rest of the players?  Here's some players whose stock has increased or decreased in value (in my eyes) based on the first show:

• Shane - Increase in Value. 
• Obviously wasn't the first bootee, so by default he is doing better than I expected.  But he also has a sneakiness to him that could carry him farther than I thought.  His quitting smoking cold turkey storyline will probably carry on for another couple of episodes at the very least.  He is somebody to keep your eye on - he could go all the way into the final four, or he could quickly turn into being that tribal council's target.
• Dan - HUGE Decrease in Value. 
• He is nowhere near as athletic as I thought.  No matter how likeable he is, if his tribe loses in the early going, he will be a possible boot because he is a liability in physical challenges.  If he makes it to the jury, I would be surprised.
• Terry - HUGE Increase in Value.
• This year's Tom (the firefighter, not the farmer).  He is now my number 2 choice to win the whole thing, and if Misty has another episode like this first one, he will be the hands on favorite.
• Bobby - Decrease in Value.
• He's not going to be in the final four with the attitude that he has.  He will make the jury based on his physical skills, but will be an early post-merge boot for fear of his immunity challenge threat.
• Melinda - Decrease in Value.
• She could be gone as soon as this week.  If she's not on the same side as Terry, she's going to be the target due to her lack of physical prowess.
• Sally - Increase in Value.
• She knows the game, which will probably help her in the early going.  Probably not an early boot, but not a final four threat.
• Misty - Decrease in Value
• I still think she's going to win the whole thing, but getting put on Exile Island wasn't a good start to her game.  Her "I've got the immunity idol" ploy was actually very smart, but could come back to haunt her if (a) somebody actually finds the idol or (b) somebody finds out she doesn't have the idol.  Lying on the second day probably isn't the smartest of moves if you get caught before you can form any serious alliances.

So who's my boot pick for this week?  Dan or Melinda.  Both are too much of a physical liability to be kept around.

Next week I'll begin with the lists, which should be good for a laugh at the end of the season.

Sizing up the Survivors - First Impressions Part 4

(Part 1 can be found here.
Part 2 can be found here.
Part 3 can be found here.)

Finishing up the previews with the young women tribe.

Danielle

God help me she's a Red Sox/Patriots fan. For the love of God don't let it be true that "She never shies away from a discussion on the New England Patriots or the Boston Red Sox."

Othere than that, she's pretty, athletic and smart. A natural ally of Misty, or a natural rival? Her bio is pretty light on personality stuff, concentrating more on her life story. She could be a sneaky pick to make the final four, but more than likely she's a jury member.

Sally

Pass.

What, you want me to say something in-depth about her? She's another athletic person, and she seems to be a people person based on her career choices (bartender, waitress, wants to be a social worker). But nothing in her bio screams anything more than "early boot". They even had to use her application to make her seem like any sort of a threat.

Courtney

Ah, I was worried we weren't gong to have a free spirit. Another person with athletic credentials, Courtney is going to have to rely on creating a bunch of alliances if she wants to survive. Because I think she's going to get on the nerves of everybody that spends any significant amount of time with her. Her knowledge of various cultures could be of use for a few of the challenges.

And finally, the last person that I'll talk about is Misty...

Misty

Okay, let me get this straight. Misty...

• is a former Miss Teen Texas


• a pretty athletic person (she runs and kickboxes)


• has a Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering


• is working as an engineer and working to get her Master's degree


• gives pbulic speaking engagements on both engineering and motivational topics


• volunteers as a mentor to young girls


• is an attractive woman


• is single?!?!

As an Engineering graduate, I can honestly say that I have never met an engineer quite like Misty. (Heck, I've never met an engineer named Misty.) So obviously she is this season's Gary.

All kidding aside, Misty is athletic, presumably logical given her engineering background, relates to others well (mentoring), has leadership qualities (motivational speaking) and is a well spoken person (public speaking). If this is not the favourite to win, or at least the person who will have the biggest target on their back, then I don't know who is.

She does have a couple of potential pitfalls. If she attempts to lead a larger group, those that are older than her might resent following a 24 year old. And also, if she is very vocal about her faith and beliefs, that could work against her as well (as seen in many different seasons previously).

All in all, she's my initial choice to win Survivor. I reserve right to change this after seeing the debut show, of course.

Sizing up the Survivors - First Impressions Part 3

(Part 1 can be found here.
Part 2 can be found here.)

We've finished with the men, so now it's time to point our attention to the fairer sex. First to go, the older women.

Cirie

I admire her dedication to the game. She lost 30 pounds once she fournd out she was going to be on the show. And she seems to have a lot of useful skills that could carry her in the early to mid game: she can cook and fish, she apparently has carpentry skills, and she's a registered nurse.

In challenges, she could be like Rafe, a deceptively strong player. She swims (not competitively) and she is strong, so it could be a mistake to overlook her. She also has a sweet personality which could put her on a fast track to a top 4 showing.

(On a different note, I hope Cirie doesn't have to use her expertise in medicine for anything important.)

Melinda

For some reason, when I saw her picture I thought of Belinda Carlisle. Sure enough, she's a professional singer. But I don't see her doing well. She has minimal skills to help her in the wild. That can wear on others. And she doesn't seem to be a physical threat, so she can't play that up to help her in the early going.

Ultimately, her survival will be based on her likeability. If she is well-liked, she will make it to the jury and be one of "tough" vote offs that nobody wants to do but know they have to in order to win.

Ruth Marie

Competitive ballroom dancing? Are you sure that you are on the right show?

She's pretty athletic, and has a diverse background. But something seems off with her. I can't describe it, but she seems like an early boot. So, the brain says jury member, but the gut says goes early. Let's split the difference and call it a late pre-merge boot.

Tina

Jeff Probst called her a likeable Sue Hawk. I'm not sure if that's a compliment or not. Her story is one that's sure to get a lot of play once the game is over, and apparently does come up during the series. However, I don't think that's going to be enough to keep her around for any length of time.

Your final preview: the young women. Who among them do I have as the favourite to win Survivor?