Survivor: Philippines Finale Live Blog and Stuff

Before we being the live blog, a quick power ranking:

1) Malcolm
2) Denise
3) Lisa
4) Skupin

Malcolm is the reason why Denise had to be kept instead of Abi. Abi had no chance of winning any sort of challenge. Denise does. For Lisa and Skupin, they can't risk Malcolm even making the final tribal. They might be able to beat Denise, but not Malcolm. So essentially, Rob Cesternino, Stephen Fishbach, and Parvati Shallow are wrong, and I'm right. (What do they know about Survivor anyway?)

Onto the show!

- So to try to destroy anything I might have said, Skupin lets us know that he and Malcolm have an alliance, and that it he feels that he can beat Malcolm in a final tribal since he has a better story.
- Malcolm feels that Abi blew up his spot at Tribal Council.
- Onto a reward challenge!
- I guess this reward challenge means that there is going to be a final three this year?
- Another physical-ish and very mental challenge. Which means Malcolm is going to win.
-  I don't think that being far behind in the physical part matters. So I wouldn't be that concerned if I was Lisa. Better to get it right once than to rush and blow it.
- Yup, he does.
- The question is, will his advantage be better or worse than Abi's that she got at auction?

- I have to admit, this is kinda boring.
- I am fascinated by the continual references to stories to tell the final tribal. This might be the most knowledgable non-all star season ever.
- Denise is trying to get Malcolm to commit, and Malcolm plays it honestly, though bad. Not wanting to lie to Denise to save her vote is fine, except you have to know that Denise will pick up on it and start to explore other options.
- Of course, Denise does.
- She is incredibly smart. She picks up on Malcolm's hesitance and now is pitching to Lisa to get rid of Malcolm.
- That she uses the Penner example to pitch to Lisa was genius, though unnecessary.
- Lisa as Judas is incredible given how she started.
- Penner speculating that he could beat Malcolm in the final immunity challenge is a big hint, especially with all of the references to stories. The ultimate story of survival - coming from behind to beat the favourites continually?

- Lisa picks up on a couple of things: 1) Abi was right, you need to keep Skupin on a leach and 2) Denise seems to have been following Malcolm's lead, and you can pitch that to the jury.
- How does Skupin think his winning immunity will allow him to set who the final three is? All that means is that you are in the final three. If it was a final two, that's different. Are you having flashbacks to Australia and how that game played out?
- FALLEN COMRADES!!!!!1!1!1!1!1!!
- Malcolm speaking on the important of Fallen Comrades is very important.
- ANGIE COOKIE REFERENCE!
- "I'm kinda well-rounded." Not taking that out of context Angie. Nope, not at all.
- DAWSON/PROBST KISSING INCIDENT!!!!!!!!1!!11!!!!!!
- And Katie gets to double her speaking time on the show.
- Denise on Jeff: "Great, great athlete". You don't say?
- And then Jeff makes references to playing baseball with spoiled brats. If you listen closely, you can hear him say "Barry Bonds" under a cough.
- Denise on Abi: "Tumultuous and tenacious." Well, at least you're biting your tongue now.
- And there it burns!

- A fantastic final immunity challenge. Some physical, some mental, some concentration (balancing a ball on a cylinder between two handles. As time goes on, you add more pieces to make balance more difficult.)
- Malcolm's advantage? He gets another shot. That could be huge, but I don't know that it's better than Abi's.
- Malcolm is the first to show a wobble, which indicates how difficult it is.
- And sure enough, Malcolm is the first to drop.
- Another huge thing is that it gives everybody else a chance to relax.
- My goodness, Malcolm is out.
- This is probably the biggest immunity loss since Terry at Panama, or Rudy in Borneo (aka the first season.) Win and you win has never been so true here.
- And Denise is out as well. Which makes things more interesting. If Denise won, a Malcolm boot was inevitable. But with Denise and Malcolm as viable options to be booted, who knows?
- Skupin might get to tell his underdog overcoming the odds story.
- But then again, so could Lisa. And if she can tell the story, it's even more powerful.
- Honestly, Lisa has been incredibly impressive.
- They could probably think of nothing but the challenge is they didn't have to hear you nattering on Jeff.
- Lisa drops! Skupin has the story to tell.
- The returning player streak continues!
- And now the scramble begins!
- (Or at least the "Skupin has a moral dilemma" part of the show begins.)

- I find it hard to believe that Malcolm gets nervous around a girl.
- Wait, I figured out how Skupin controls who goes. Since he has immunity, it doesn't mean that
- Lisa is amazing. Malcolm says that Denise will come along and tell them to throw the vote his way. Lisa asks should we just go along with it (ie play along)? After getting past the confusion, Malcolm says "If we're good, I don't care." Another mistake. You should have said "Just let her down easy." Instead, you've given them every reason to be able to agree with Denise with no remifications and no chance to scramble if absolutely necessary.
- It is funny that Denise is no longer on the "Best of the best makes it to the end" train.
- Skupin doing a confessional, just lounging around with the immunity necklace is pretty bad-ass.
- Denise is trying to play the friend card with Skupin, which is a good idea, but also comes across a bit ingenuous.
- That Skupin is still drawn to the "winning against the best of the best" argument is crazy.
- Lisa is going to do whatever it takes to make sure Malcolm doesn't make it into the final three.
- OMG SHE'S TYING THE VOTE FOR A FIRE CHALLENGE!
- Malcolm mentions that he was super close with Angie, and had to cut her throat before even considering to do the same with Denise. Which sets off Denise's radar and has her say essentially the same thing about Malcolm.
- Lisa mentions that she and Skupin had voted seperately in the past. Paving the road to another split vote?
- Carter is pissed off. Or baffled. I can't tell from his look.
- Skupin says taht Malcolm has "favors" for life. While Lisa
- Malcolm mentions that Denise floated as though that's a good thing for a jury story. The other stuff about going to every tribal council (first one ever?) is good though.
- Lisa straight up says that she isn't going to keep Malcolm along. Does that turn Skupin?
- Seriously Skupin should vote for Malcolm unless he's worried about Malcolm winning the fire challenge.
- Obvious that Malcolm gets 2 votes, but does he get the third?
- Yup. Bad play Skupin.
- "Congratulations Denise" On making the final tribal, or winning overall? Artis seems to think that it's winning overall.
- "Maybe I pushed them too hard to start playing the game" Or maybe you were too good?

-

- "You were a great ally...but this is where I outwit you." Denise
- "I'll have a lot to say about that one" Skupin on Malcolm's guarantee that Denise wins.
- "Here I am, this little old sex therapist..."  Uh, you make this sound so innocent.
- Oh know, did Lisa hurt herself?
- Time to burn down the beach, always my favourite. "Hey guys, let's see if we can start a massive forest fire to celebrate the end of our journey!"

- Final tribal starts!
- Denise starts out by saying that she isn't going apologize and that she deserves to be there. Outwitted, yada yada, outlast, yada yada. I survived every tribal council (will somebody bring that up as a negative?) It was a good statement, but it wasn't anything that we hadn't heard before.
- Lisa refutes Denise's opening statement, but then starts talking about playing with heart which is a non-starter. Her boxing analogy about taking out Malcolm is strong though.
- Skupin begins with the worst opening ever "Returning player." But he brings it along by saying that he had his back against the wall from the start because everybody wanted returning players out. He brings up his clumsiness as a positive, saying he has pieces of mask in his face. He loves the game and so does everybody else. Good start.

 So far Skupin's in the lead, Denise is right behind and Lisa needs another knockout punch.

- Artis is talking to somebody about not being congratulated for not being loyal, and "in the end karma is a bitch." Who is he talking about? (Skupin.)
- Carter asks Skupin about what Skupin was thinking when he knew Carter
- Pete asks Denise about why her game was better than Skupin's and why she deserves a million dollars. She points out surviving
- RC calls Lisa smart and sneaky and she wanted Lisa out very quickly. Um, huh? She asks Skupin if he knew that RC was going home and Skupin immediately says no.
- Malcolm says he is considering voting for Lisa after the opening statement. Malcolm tells Denise to not nod, and to stop appeasing people and playing the "being a friend" card. He asks Denise why she outplayed Skupin and Lisa. Denise gives an answer about appeasement and Malcolm then says
- Jeff asks Skupin what he did in the game (essentially)? Skupin says that he was in trouble from Day 1, unlike Lisa and Denise. He had to scramble until Penner left. Jeff asks Lisa how she didn't float like Denise did, and Lisa says she took sides all the time, and uses an example where somebody else came up with a plan, and she stuck to it. Jeff wasn't impressed by this.
- Abi asks why should I vote for you? Lisa says she was loyal until the end. Skupin says that he outwitted, outlasted and outplayed Abi. Abi says that doesn't include out-disrespect and Skupin agrees. Denise apologies if Abi is traumatized
- PENNER TIME! He gives a fantastic soliloquy about everybody being bitter, but offers his congratulations. Penner says Denise looked like a bitch. Skupin says he was scrambling and in danger, but he got no votes ever. He has a clean record, and might still have one after this.(This kinda came across as a brag as well - Skupin was in trouble, but never voted for? Well played.) PENNER OUTS LISA AS BLAIR FROM THE FACTS OF LIFE! Lisa fights back with saying "Did you talk about what you did as a teenager?" "No, but I didn't talk about when I went to the bathroom 16 days ago either. We can talk about what I did now, but it won't have an impact on the game." PENNER FOR THE WIN!

I think this is Skupin's, but honestly I wouldn't be surprised by anybody winning.  Frankly, if I was on the jury, I would have voted for Penner.

RC votes for Lisa
Penner votes for Denise (calling the game flawless. Eh, there were a few flaws, like if Malcolm won immunity.)
Carter votes for "Skoopin" (The first year in a long time when everybody got a vote.)

Off we go to the States!

- I wonder if Jeff asks to wear something different than what he was wearing at the tribal council?
- A moment of silence for the Newtown victims first.
- Wow, none of the final three look that different.
Denise
Denise
(It's Denise. Shows what I know.)
Denise

I think that Denise's victory is going to be hurt by her edit - she wasn't shown to be doing that much in the game thanks to Malcolm's giant shadow, but it is entirely possible that she did a lot. But unlike, say, Sophie, Denise did face weaker competition who weren't in her alliance from essentially day one. So it wasn't just her being the lesser of three evils.

And then I was proven wrong. Apparently Malcolm would not have beat Denise in the final three. My mind is blown.

I'm going to need a day to absorb that fact (and the thank you video that ended with Jeff Probst just nodding into the distance). I'll be back tomorrow morning with my season rankings, and sometime later with my winner rankings and general thoughts about this season.

Survivor: Philippines Episode 9 Thoughts and Power Ranking

"I think your best bet is just to sit back and wait for somebody to make a mistake. The cracks are there." - Mike Skupin, to Jonathan Penner

It's probably bad form to lead with the same quote two weeks in a row, but it really is appropriate now. The cracks were there, and this week, the structure crumbled.

What was odd about this week is that we weren't hit over the head with the crumbling tribe. We got what seemed to be the normal misdirection showing somebody else to be in trouble when the least exciting result plays out. Instead, we got another fun Tribal Council, and a crazy result where the dominant alliance and the most likely final three was destroyed. We also saw Abi-Maria continue her campaign to supplant NaOnka as the worst player ever to believe they had control of the game.

Now we have an interesting situation where there's a group of five that is aligned, but we only have an alliance of two, and three other players that we do not know where they stand. This season has done a great job of bringing back the unpredictability that makes Survivor so great at times; I hope it keeps this pace up.

No Chance: Lisa, Abi-Maria


Abi-Maria is a worse player than NaOnka. NaOnka at least knew better than to actively alienate members of her alliance; she just mocked those who were on the outside. Abi-Maria thinks that she knows how the game is supposed to be played, and she seems to think that she is a perfect individual. Unfortunately, that leads to her making incredibly insulting comments under the guise of "giving her opinion". This in turn ends up alienating her own alliance members and ends up causing your alliance to fall apart and you to be on the wrong side of the tribe.


To be fair to Abi-Maria, her actions actually held her alliance togehter for a tirbal council longer than expected. Lisa was loyal to her tribemates because she thought she could beat them in the end. And heck, Lisa remained loyal even after Abi-Maria basically called her untrustworthy. It's actually a brilliant play if Lisa knew that Skupin was going to flip - she can tell everybody that she remained loyal and stand a chance to pick up votes from Pete, Abi-Maria and Artis at a final tribal situation.


Of course, Lisa does not seem to be making that play. She's actually remaining loyal to her tribe, even after she has been clearly told that she is 4th or 5th on the totem pole. This lack of a killer instinct (and lack of basic math skills) is going to end up being the end of her. Sometimes it's okay to give up on something when you know it is going to end poorly. This is one of those times.


Okay Chance to Win: Penner, Skupin, Carter, Denise

Congratulations to Penner and Skupin, who have moved out of their own category and into one of the generic categories. They make the move on the successful flip they made. No longer are they going to be viewed as returning players (heck, Pete said as much as he was voting for Skupin.) Instead, they are just players in the game. This is a major hurdle for them to have climbed, and it represents a greater standing for them.

What will be interesting is to see where they end up falling. They have to knwo that Denise and Malcolm are a pair, so it would be very easy to bring Carter along as a final three. But I get a feeling that Skupin wants to bring Lisa into the fold, which could drive Penner away to Denise and Malcolm. Then again, it could move Penner and Carter to Lisa and Skupin, under the theory that if you get rid of Lisa, you have at least a 1 in 3 shot of winning.

Good Chance to Win: Pete

Pete is in a bad spot right now, no question.  But realistically, he can still recover if he just shifts his approach a little bit. He already has Lisa convinced that going to the final three with him and Abi-Maria would be a good thing. So why can't he convince another person of this, and orchestrate a switch of his own?

(Well, besides the fact that he is aligned with Abi-Maria?)

In short, I'm not giving up on his chances to win yet. To be honest, I don't know that anybody has really been shown in more of a winner's light than Pete. His confessionals are not as harsh as some of his actions at camp.

The Favourite: Malcolm

Honestly, this is a reach. Last week I had written off Malcolm, but this week I'm saying he's got the best chance of winning? All the reasons for him to lose continue to be there. But what has changed is that Malcolm is with the majority now.

There are now 8 players left. If Pete and Abi-Maria get Pagonged, then we're at the final 6. If things follow the pattern of previous years, Malcolm needs to win 2 of 3 immunity challenges to make final tribal. Are you willing to write him off in an individual immunity challenge? Throw in that he can still form a final three with Denise and somebody from his group of 5, and Malcolm deserves to be in the driver's seat here.

Eliminated: Artis

Honestly, I don't have much to say about Artis' game. He was in a pretty sweet position in the game, being the most likeable in a dominant 3 person alliance.That others got together and realized that their best chance of winning was breaking up the 3 person alliance was out of his control; so was the fact that he was targetted. He was targetted because Pete and Abi were so strongly aligned and a hidden immunity idol that they could share.

I am a bit upset that Artis was voted out. I was curious to find out how he was going to play being in the minority.His game play was really unexplored beyond him being with Pete and Abi-Maria. I wanted to know how he would react to being in the minority alliance. Would he try to move to the other alliance? Would he try to split up the other alliance? Or would he fold and accept his fate as he meekly leaves the game after being voted out? I'm not so upset that I'm going to demand him to be a returning player at some point, but I am legitimately curious as to how he would have reacted to this vote.

Survivor: Philippines Episode 8 Thoughts and Power Rankings

I'm back after a brief hiatus (aka vacation - and someday I will also post a couple of reviews/thoughts on that!) Thank goodness nothing happened on Survivor, huh?

"I think your best bet is just to sit back and wait for somebody to make a mistake. The cracks are there." - Mike Skupin, to Jonathan Penner

I really, really wish that there was just a feed which showed the camp life 24/7. Maybe it would make the scramble that happened this episode make sense.  Life was easy for Dangrayne - Penner was going home. No chance of him winning individual immunity, especially in a challenge that starts as a physical challenge.  Except whoops! Penner won.  No problem, the back up plan gets enacted, and it's Skupin who's going home.

But wait! Lisa isn't down with her best ally leaving so soon, so she tells Pete that Malcolm has a hidden immunity idol, and they need to blindside Malcolm.

Hold on! Pete goes to Malcolm and asks him point blank if he has the hidden immunity idol. Malcolm says he doesn't and for some reason Pete buys Malcolm's horrendous acting.

And yet! Pete would rather get rid of the Red tribe, and especially that immunity threat Jeff Kent. So the vote flips to Jeff.

Slow down though! Jeff hears this plan and somehow this gets flipped to 6 people voting Pete out.

As best as I can tell, within a 5 hour span, 4 different people were going to be voted out, and the main alliance had changed at least 2 times.

(Meanwhile, Abi-Maria is just sitting at the side thinking that she has the game in hand now, since she's going to vote out Penner.)

[What follows is essentially a live blog of the tribal council.]

Tribal council is just as crazy as the scramble. It begins with Malcolm accusing Lisa of throwing him under the bus, and LISA ADMITTING IT! Then Lisa sells out the first two plans of voting people out, just in case things weren't messed up enough.

Oh thank goodness, Abi-Maria decided to pipe up and run her mouth. And just in case things aren't already messed up, she outs the original final four that her tribe had. And just for fun, she's getting into an argument with Lisa for no good reason at all, while Jeff Kent looks on bemusedly.

And when Lisa brings up Malcolm's hidden immunity idol, HE SHOWS IT! MIND=BLOWN!

Malcolm is going to use the idol and he tells everybody? Genius if he doesn't.

OMG! Jeff makes a sarcastic joke about whether anybody else wants to reveal that they have an idol AND F'ING ABI-MARIA REVEALS HERS! I'm going to need a 10 minute break just to calm down from this!

(I'm not sure that I'm prepared to live in a world where Jeff Kent is the smartest and most subtle Survivor player in a season.)

"I was selflessly holding it for people in my alliance." Uh, might have been smart to keep it a secret you fool. Also, maybe not so smart to have created drama with RC over a clue.

(Meanwhile, Penner is laughing outwardly at being a part of the greatest Tribal Council of all time, and inwardly at how he might just be off the block for a little while.)

Even Jeff is left speechless! And Lisa is looking smug for no good reason.

Wait, Penner wants the floor now? Has the weight of the immunity necklace cut off the blood to his brain?

DID PENNER JUST TRY TO MAKE A SIX PERSON ALLIANCE IN FRONT OF EVERYBODY? IS PENNER THIS DUMB TO BLOW UP THE VOTE OUT PETE PLAN?

AND NOW LISA IS TRYING TO COUNTER IT AND KEEP THE YELLOW TRIBE TOGETHER? MY MIND IS IN OVERLOAD!

BTW, how exactly does this prove that you are loyal, Lisa? "Sorry for blowing up our spot in the game, but hey, stick with me and all will be good."

In a shocker, Abi-Maria is cool with this plan. So is Pete, seemingly. But why would Skupin go for it. "Hey, let's make it a 5-5 tie, and hopefully we play the idol on the right person?" He's actually in a situation where he should flip. (It's a bit different than the Cochrane flip from South Pacific. I'll elaborate at some point on this.)

And now Pete is outing himself as the target? Is that a blatant hint to Abi-Maria? She should say she's going to play the idol on Pete now, to throw off the other possible alliance.

JEFF KENT WITH THE SAVE! Pointing out that he was put out there as a possible target since the merge, along with Malcolm, Skupin, Penner, and now even Lisa and Abi-Maria are targets. Will the shell trick work for Abi-Maria?

"This is pretty fun Jeff" - Jeff Kent

Why is this hard for you Abi-Maria?

RC is loving this.

NOBODY PLAYS THE IDOL?!?!?!?!?!?!?

ABI?

Jeff is going because somebody threw a vote on Abi-Maria?

WHAT IS THIS?

Who messed up?

Malcolm is legitimately dismayed at Jeff being voted out, and rightfully so. Lisa made a move that quite possibly could end up in the top 5 worst moves ever. And if Skupin voted with his tribe, that is even worse.

But who threw their vote away on Abi-Maria? My guess is Penner, but it could be Carter.

Probst chastises the tribe for what might be the biggest blown opportunity ever, and he is right.

IT WAS PENNER!

And to top it off, Jeff Kent's exit speech is about the $1 million is actually $600,000 once Obama gets done with it.

[In all seriousness, the tribal council took me an hour to watch, because I kept on having to pause it to absorb exactly what was happening.]

No Chance: Lisa, Malcolm, Abi-Maria

I don't know if I can intelligently talk about what Lisa did this episode. It was smart for her to try to keep Skupin by outing Malcolm and his idol. I doubt she could have even begun to estimate the Hantz level of chaos that she was going to unleash on the game though. And then she compounds it by staying with a group that she has sold down the river. I realize her plan is to try to make the final three with two of Abi-Maria, Pete and Artis, but in order to accomplis that, Lisa is going to have to win the final immunity competition. If she doesn't, Pete, Artis and Abi-Maria are going to look around and realize that Lisa is most likely to to win in the final tribal, so she has to go.

Malcolm is here because once he burns his immunity idol, he's gone. So he basically has to win out in immunity challenges and while he seems to be very proficient, he hasn't actually won one yet. I'm betting that he's not the second coming of Terry Dietz.

And Abi-Maria is here because I can not fathom her argument for winning. She is following Pete's lead in the game, not offering any useful strategy herself. In fact, her suggestions are terrible. She has treated at least one member of the jury terribly, and likely has treated everybody terribly. What is her argument? I'm not as bad as Pete?

The returning players: Penner, Skupin

Okay, why did Penner throw his vote away?  My theory is that he thinks that what happened at the tribal council is going to cause major issues going forward, so he is going to be safe for the next little while. Also, he knows that he is at the bottom of a six person alliance, especially since 2 of those people have already stated that they want him gone sooner rather than later. He knows that Jeff is going to get 5 votes, so if it goes to purple rocks, Jeff will have immunity. None of this really helps Penner, so he's choosing to go with the hope that chaos will reign.

Skupin's play was more straight forward. Being at the bottom of a 5 person alliance is not terrible when there are 10 people left. You can flip at 9, with a chance of doing it at 7 or 5 as well. I don't know that the opportunity will arise, but at least Skupin is positioned for it.

Okay Chance to Win: Artis, Carter, Denise

Artis only exists here because I can see his path to victory: take his original alliance of Abi-Maria, Pete and himself to final tribal, and then play the "I'm not Pete or Abi-Maria" card. It's a strong card to play, but I don't know that it's going to be enough.

Carter is kinda in the same position as Malcolm, but he has the advantage of not being the obvious target that Malcolm is. Carter could slide along further in the game just by virtue of not being Malcolm. Well, that and being a natural follower.

Denise is probably going to be cut off before she can get anything going, but she is probably slated to go after Malcolm, Carter and Skupin. That gives her a chance to put something together with whoever is left from the outsiders.

The Favourite: Pete

Pete dodged a bullet this week. There was a good chance he could have gone, but somehow he kept his tribe together. It's also interesting that his read on Malcolm having the immunity idol was so off. If Pete is going to rely on his judgement of how others react to decide what path to go on instead of someone who is in an alliance with him and has no real reason to lie to Pete, that could end up coming back to bite him.

It's funny that we were comparing him to Russell Hantz after the clue incident when in reality he's now in a Brian Heidik situation. He has to bring the most unlikeable people with him to the end, because there is a good chance he will lose on his own unlikeability, regardless of game play.

Eliminated: Dana, Dawson, Katie, RC

Quick thoughts:

Dana isn't a quitter. She was only going to be allowed to stay for an extra 12 hours and then be removed if she didn't improve. I have to believe she was going to be removed at that point, and if she was in that much pain to begin with, she was better off in removing herself.

Dawson and Katie were screwed once Dana was removed, but I am surprised that both didn't really take a run at their best options for survival. Dawson really didn't do anything with the Jeff Kent is a baseball player factoid, which was baffling. There was no reason for her not to tell others about it and try to overthrow Jeff. And both her and Katie didn't try to argue that Denise might be a problem once the merge happens and Denise and Malcolm join back together.

RC was screwed, really. It's not like she can go back in time and not share her clue with Abi-Maria. But it is a cautionary tale for everybody. Don't go around making alliances immediately when you arrive at the beach. Maybe try to find out if somebody is bat-shit crazy before aligning with them.

Eliminated: Jeff

Going into last episode, I was willing to move Jeff out of this No Chance area. But then this episode happened and Jeff blew his spot to smithereens.  He let his inexplicable hatred of Penner cloud his sight of the finish line, and had him essentially hand his game over to Pete and Abi-Maria

Here is a hint for all future Survivor players: If you have an option to be at the front of a six person alliance, or to be at the back of a 7 person alliance, always choose the front. There is no reason to put yourself at the whims of another alliance, regardless of any natural four person alliance that might be available.  When trying to play the long game of Survivor, you need to eliminate as many variables as you can. The easiest way to do that is to be leading an alliance, instead of being lead. As easy as it might be to assume that people will react to your pitch of the obviously best strategic move, it is not a safe assumption because this game is played by HUMANS! Emotion plays a factor as well, and it isn't as easy as saying "It's in your best interest to do this, so you should do it."

So, while I feel bad for Jeff Kent getting taken out in this way, he really has nobody to blame but himself. He could have jumped to the top if he had just worked with Penner earlier, but instead he came to that realization one tribal council too late, and essentially got what he deserved - to be voted out before Jonathan Penner, the one thing he didn't want to happen.

Survivor: Philippines Episode 4 Thoughts and Power Rankings

Something that it's time to start considering: Is Matsing the worst tribe ever? The competition is basically between them and Ulong from Palau.  Matsing have actually had two advantages on Ulong: Matsing hasn't had to face a dominant challenge duo like Ian and Tom, and Matsing hasn't actually had to win a competition, they just to not lose. And yet, Matsing still managed to finish last in each challenge so far. It was not the dominance of the other teams, but Matsing's own incompetence that has lead them here.  Worse yet is that it doesn't look as though Matsing will be disbanded soon. It will be a 6 on 6 on 2 battle. We might see our second ever tribe that is just absorbed into another tribe due to a lack of tribe members.

No Chance: Lisa, Jeff

It looks like the tide has turned on Jeff, and it happened right as he was making a big move. Jeff decided that maybe it would be a good idea to go to the end with Jonathan Penner, who has been known to alienate people in the past. Solid choice on his part. And bringing in Carter isn't a bad idea either; having an immunity threat on your side helps when you want to get somebody out. Unfortunately for Jeff, the girls saw the guys little pow-wow, and they are going to do what they can to stop this man alliance. And of course, Dawson knows that Jeff Kent is a famous baseball player. So when push comes to shove, I'm guessing that Dawson will use this to turn the advantage to the girl's favour.

Not Much of a Chance: Abi-Maria, RC, Katie

Another week, another Abi-Maria blow up. This time, Abi-Maria sees the immunity idol clue in RC's bag, and declares it to be another reason that RC can't be trusted. And again, Abi-Maria goes on to make a big scene of this discovery, and drives home that RC should be the next to go. It seems like this is going to go unpunished, but it could add up to a flipping of the narrative on Abi-Maria.

RC's problem is that she is a reasonable person, and assumed that she would be dealing with reasonable people, so she made an alliance with the first person who she talked to about an alliance. That's fine to assume in real life. However anybody who has watched a couple of seasons of Survivor knows that you can not assume that all of the people are actually reasonable. Making a bad alliance has been the downfall of many people; RC will just be the latest to fall prey to it.

The returning players: Penner, Skupin

Penner has made a remarkable comeback after sputtering in the early going. He now has an alliance with Jeff and Carter, and has the hidden immunity idol as back up in case something goes horribly awry. I doubt it is going to help him win the game, but it helps his position right now.

Okay Chance to Win: Dana, Artis, Carter, Malcolm, Denise

Just want to throw a shout out to Carter, who is actually playing the game now. He's made a solid alliance and has figured out that there is more than just winning tribal immunity to playing this game.

Malcolm and Denise get moved down here because, you know, they are certain to be outnumbered in any new tribe. And they might not even make it to a merge or anything.  One thing that I wanted to touch on is the notion that Malcolm and Denise are now outed as a pair. Look at the performance over the last two or three challenges and ask yourself who performed the worst from the blue tribe? The only objective answer is Russell. So it's not necessarily obvious to everybody else that Malcolm and Denise are a pair that has been established since day 1. It could be assumed that they just got rid of the biggest liability they had.

Good Chance to Win: Dawson

Downgraded because of this boy/girl split. Dawson might be able to come out okay, but it could hurt her in the long run by weakening her tribe and alliances. Since this season seems to be coming down to being Red vs. Yellow, having a bigger alliance is actually going to be more valuable in the short run.

The Favourite: Pete

Pete just might be the better version of Russell Hantz. This week he threw another bomb into the Abi-Maria/RC alliance by planting the immunity idol clue in RC's stuff. That was rather Russell-esque, as it kept the tribe somewhat destabilized. But it also furthered Pete's goal of getting RC out of the game while also strengthening his alliance with Abi-Maria. It's a somewhat brilliant strategy that could only go horribly awry if Abi-Maria goes off the rails.

Eliminated: Russell

Russell was a victim of his own beliefs, it would seem. Jeff Probst had him nailed when he said that Russell acted as though he was a superhero. Russell took that belief (or confidence, depending on how you want to frame it) and used it to become a leader that he was telling us that he didn't want to be. That in turn lead to him making two critical decisions which ended up leading to Matsing losing the first two immunity challenges. The superhero complex also lead Russell to try to come back in the third immunity challenge, even though he was not strong enough to climb a ladder. It's the sort of thing that I am sure helps Russell in his real life, but it will hurt him each and every time he plays Survivor.

Survivor: Philippines Episode 3 Thoughts and Power Rankings

An exciting episode this week, as we are officially down to one person who we really haven't heard from.

No Chance: Lisa, Jeff

I'm not moving Jeff from here even though he seems to have made a separate alliance with Penner.  It's actually a smart move and has the added benefit that Jeff knows where the idol is. I have to admit, I'm shocked at how well Jeff is playing; I thought he would just cling to athletic ability as his calling card. Instead, he's taken control of his tribe and is really in position to make a long run.  The down side to Jeff's game is that somebody is liable to out him as having made a lot of money playing baseball, and I see that as ending up costing him the win.

And hey, Lisa's in the game!  Granted it's as the bottom member of an alliance as the expendable one, but still, it's something.

Not Much of a Chance: Abi-Maria, Katie

I was really tempted to Abi-Maria up after she found the hidden immunity idol, but then she (a) shared it with Pete and pretty well told him where it was and (b) celebrated as though she was 10 years old.  It was at that point when I realized that she was Joffrey from Game of Thrones. Both are unstable and prone to irrationally lashing out at those who they don't like. Both desperately want acknowledgement for what they have done, and have taken actions to prove themselves as being smarter than others think they are. And both come off as snot nosed kids who aren't deserving of what they have. That's not something that is going to garner you much respect and support at the end of the game.

I've bumped Katie down here because other than a shot at the beginning of this episode, she has been incredibly invisible. As in "She's doing nothing in this game but following" invisible. She's going to end up being Rick from South Pacific if she's lucky.

The returning players: Russell, Penner, Skupin

Skupin gets moved back down because there's a plot afoot to blindside him. I understand why his tribe would want to get rid of him; Skupin is a likeable person who will be difficult to beat in a final tribal council. But getting rid of him only makes sense if you think you are close to a merge situation. If you think you are far away from a merge, then you want to keep your tribe strong, which would mean keeping Skupin (self-injuring and all) over Lisa.

Penner made a strong move in making an alliance with Jeff. He knew he was on the outs, and he appealed to the leader of the other side to maybe call a cease fire. Add in that he had an immunity idol to leverage, and Penner played the situation well.

Russell better hope that his tribe starts winning immunity - otherwise he's going to be the next one to go.


Okay Chance to Win: Dana, RC, Artis, Carter

Carter and Artis, welcome to the show!  While it looks like Carter is going to ease his way into the game, Artis had a few things to say.  He didn't like Skupin for some reason, and he wants to turn on him.  Lucky for him, Pete is willing to accommodate that request.

If this anger is an indication as to how Artis is going to be going forward, then I'm happy to have another strong character who is going to mix things up. And Artis might have a chance to go far in the game.

Good Chance to Win: Malcolm, Denise 

Malcolm gets bumped down wiithout really making any mistakes. Malcolm said all of the right things at tribal, not alienating anybody while also making his points and showing his anger and disappointment. He has his alliance with Denise which might be able to carry him further.  But if hsi tribe loses again, it's going to be more difficult for him to get anywhere and not get Pagonged.

Very Good Chance to Win: Dawson

I'm leaving Dawson here more as a hunch than anything else. She got virtually no air time this episode, so it is difficult to say where she stands. I will have to revisit this next week.

The Favourite: Pete

Pete had a very good week.  Abi-Maria traded RC for him, and she seemed willing to let him lead so long as he kept up the illusion that she was an equal partner. Pete also set up for a blindside of Skupin, with everybody lining up to support. This would also isolate RC, while earning Pete the trust of Artis and Lisa, giving him an even stronger alliance.  Plus there's the idol which he knows the whereabouts of.

Not a bad week.

Eliminated: Angie

"For the record, I never said I couldn't do this"
"I would have went again. I really would have."
"One thing about me is I never give up."
- Angie, after the immunity challenge where she struggled in the early going

"I can't do it"
- Angie, after her first attempt to get a puzzle piece at the immunity challenge

I have to admit, I was screaming at my television set when Angie kept on saying that she would have went back out, or that she didn't quit. I even went back in the show to make sure that I saw/heard right and that Angie did in fact say that she was quitting from the piece gathering part of the immunity challenge. So I was very confused that this never came up at Tribal Council, or at the beach after the challenge. Why didn't Russell bring it up when he was burying her at Tribal Council? Did he think it was overkill? Was it addressed at some other point and the producers decided not to show it?  It's driving me crazy as to why they would show something that contradicted a player, but have there be no follow up to it.

One thing that was clear throughout all of Angie's denials and was hammered home at Tribal Council, was that Angie was repeating that she didn't quit to reinforce it to herself, and not for the benefit of everybody else. But what can you expect? She is very young, and likely hasn't faced much adversity in her life. If anything, this happening on Survivor is a good thing; saying the biggest challenge that happened to you was failing at Survivor is something that most people would only wish to be able to say. I fully expect this to be a learning experience for Angie, and that she will come out of it a stronger person. And that is a win for her.

Survivor: Philippines Episode 2 Power Rankings

Not much of a change this week...

No Chance: Lisa, Jeff

No change from last week in this group.

Lisa continued to be alienated from the rest of her tribe, and somehow managed to make her situation worse this week.

It's personal confession time: like Lisa, I am an introvert. I like and value my alone time, and to be honest, kinda need it. However, I think I grasp something that she doesn't - if you take that time to yourself while everybody else is spending time together, you are basically giving them an excuse to talk about how untrustworthy you are and how you need to be voted out. Lisa needs a big rally just to stay in the game, let alone win it. We've seen it happen a few times in recent seasons (Holly from Nicaragua and Dawn from South Pacific spring to mind immediately,) but until we see some sort of fight being shown by Lisa, she is as good as gone.

Jeff has a different issue - his knee is horrendously hurt, but he has to keep up all appearances that he isn't as hurt as he seems.  They have given him a brace, which has to help, but at the same time just brings continual attention to his injury.  If the Red tribe is smarter than the Heroes from Heroes vs. Villains, Jeff has a lot of trouble ahead of him. With Penner finding a hidden immunity idol, Jeff might have a bigger hurdle ahead of him.

Not Much of a Chance: Aba-Maria, Angie

No change from last week in this group as well. But both were significant players in this week's stories.

Angie factored into this week's boot, by being the other possible person to be voted out, and by creating some sort of romance/alliance/snuggle grouping with Malcolm.  I get why she would want to do it; heck I would consider doing it if I was as cold as she claimed. But everything else was a just a demonstration of how young and lacking of Survivor awareness Angie is. She did not seem to understand why people would view her benign snuggling with Malcolm as anything bad. She was honest about not being able to do the sled portion of the immunity challenge, but even that did not seem to be something that she saw as that big of a deal. And her performance in that Tribal Council...just wow. I wouldn't have blamed Denise and Russell if they decided to change their votes right then and there. I mean, there are many answers that you could give to the question of "What one thing would help the most right now?" And in all honesty, cookies isn't the worst answer in the world. I'm sure that cookies would help boost morale in the short term. But that isn't the answer that Probst is looking for, and is likely to piss off the rest of your tribemates. In general, when Jeff Probst is speechless after your answer, and then starts to berate you at Tribal Council, you know you have messed up.

All of this just points to how she is playing the game. She makes decisions based on the best outcomes in the short term, with no real consideration on how it would affect her long term plans, goals and consequences. While Sandra Diaz-Twine ran that strategy twice and won two seasons of Survivor, Sandra was also smart enough to know when she might need to make a move to help herself in the medium and long terms. I'm not sure that Angie has the same sort of smartness; instead I think her game play just comes from her youth. She's 20 after all. Most significant decisions that she will have faced will have very little long term consequences for her, so it's not something that would naturally be a part of her decision making process.

This is certainly something that others could exploit to their advantage in an alliance. And it is something that could carry Angie far into the game (maybe even to final tribal). But it is not a winning strategy.

Aba-Maria is also playing a losing game, but for a much different reason. Abi-Maria is incredibly unstable, and is already looking for reasons to betray people. She is the Alicia (One World) of this season - looking to pick fights with people, and has an incredible temper that makes her unpredictable. If she doesn't get voted out shortly, she is going to leave a wake of destoyed alliances behind her and make herself an ideal person to take to the final three if only to lose.

The returning players: Russell, Penner

It was interesting to see how both handled being the target of everybody.  Penner went for the easy way out; he searched for the hidden immunity idol, even at the risk of alienating his own tribe. Russell was much more conciliatory, choosing not to look for the idol but instead trying to re-build the relationships that he destroyed. And yet both are in the same position - on the outside of their tribe, and still at risk of getting voted out.

At least Penner has the idol.

Okay Chance to Win: Skupin, Dana, RC, Katie, Artis, Carter

Carter gets moved to this group because he literally hasn't had any sort of lines or camera time beyond the immunity challenges. It's going to be tough to be considered a winner when the producers haven't even set you up with any sort of face time.

RC has started to reap the rewards of playing the game too quickly. She immediately grabbed Abi-Maria and created an alliance, but as we've seen, that probably wasn't the best of ideas. Now it's not that bad for her; the first vote is probably going to be Lisa, which will save RC. But RC is going to have to seriously consider getting rid of Aba-Maria before Aba-Maria gets rid of RC. In doing that, RC could get herself labelled as untrustworthy.  Plus, if word gets back to Aba-Maria, she will reign her wrath down on RC.

(Please let this happen.)

Good Chance to Win: Pete, Denise

Denise gets moved up because of her alliance with Malcolm, along with her decision this week to vote out Roxanne.

Realistically, Denise's move isn't a giant one. She had to choose between two players who weren't that strong in challenges. But the real choice Denise made was to help solidfy her alliance with Malcolm by essentially backing him up over Russell/Roxanne, and put Russell into a corner as the next person to go. If she went the other way, she would be #3 in a 3 person alliance, and will have betrayed the first person she aligned with.  Why mess with a good thing?

Very Good Chance to Win: Dawson

We didn't see too much of Dawson this week, but we did see her come back in time to catch Penner searching for the hidden immunity idol. If I had to guess, I would say that she will be the one to notice the symbol thingy off of the rice container and figure out that Penner has the idol.

The Favourite: Malcolm

Malcolm found himself in another awkward situation, and handled it to the best of his ability. I think it was folly to cuddle with Angie and not try to distance himself from her otherwise. But with that said, he handled the rest of the situation rather well. He saw that others were together and talking, and recognized that they could be plotting to get rid of Angie. He made his move and pushed to get rid of the ringleader of that plan, and was successful. His biggest problem now? Being in the small tribe, he risks getting absorbed into another tribe and just getting Pagong-ed. He has to hope that he does as well (if not better) than Jenna Lewis and Rupert from All-Stars.

Eliminated: Roxanne

Roxanne was right to identify the Angie/Malcolm grouping as a problem. And she was right to target Angie for getting the boot; Angie isn't exactly a benefit on challenges, so it is easy to lose her.  But Roxanne's downfall was that she herself was also expendable. If Roxanne showed anything in the challenges, she could have saved herself. But instead she was just as unhelpful as Angie, and Roxanne managed to alienate herself from the rest of the tribe, where Russell only wanted her around to feed him information while the rest wanted her gone. maybe if Roxanne had helped around camp, things would have been different; Malcolm might have been willing to dump the liability that is Angie, or Denise might have been willing to send Angie away and deal with the fall out with Malcolm.  The lesson here is if you are going to make a move to get rid of another player, make sure that there is no chance you can get outflanked by your target.

Quick programming note

The Survivor: Philippines Power Rankings and weekly thoughts post(s) will be coming later today. Thanks for the comments on last week's posts, and comeback later on for this week's posts!

Survivor: Philippines Episode 1 Live Thoughts

Hey, guess who's back? Yup, Survivor returns and so do I. These thoughts were taken as the show went on, and are presented as is. I should be back tomorrow with an initial power rankings/first thoughts on the players.

- Side benefit of Skupin reappearing is they get to use more Elizabeth Hasselback footage.
- Possibly the best first appearance of Jeff Probst
- Way to call out Jeff Kent immediately
- There is no chance I am going to remember the tribe names. So Yellow (Skupin), Red (Penner) and Purple (Swan)
- Skupin grew up watching the Facts of Life. That's something I didn't expect
- Awesome, they're doing the get your supplies in 60 seconds and then get on the raft thing.
- Did they get any machetes?
- Jeff Kent loses everyting, but they recover well.
- And then Jeff Kent gets hurt. Awesome

- Swan isn't going to take the leadership role, and then immediately says "Let's get our stuff and get it going"
- Swan's plan is to throw the leadership role at the person who doesn't expect it but wants to step up. Okay, but then he's showing somebody how to make shelter, like a good leader. Is the somebody he's talking about himself?
- And there's the poster child (Angie)
- Wait, Malcolm lived in Micronesia?
- And he started a fire without a flint?
- I mean what?
- No really, what?
- And now Malcolm is happy to make Russel the leader.
- Back to Red, and Jeff Kent is still hurt
- But Penner is looking at this as a job
- Oh god Jeff Kent is giving Penner the Barry Bonds treatment, and they're going to boot him.
- Skupin has the awareness that he's
- So we have 3 people who are lying about who they are - Jeff Kent, Lisa and RC
- Alliance talk between Abi and RC is too forced and quick. This is going to fail
- OMG Abi is going tot ry to play the Parvati role this year. That's going to fail
- And Skupin falls into a decent 4 person alliance.
- He does note that ehis alliance mates are moving fast

- Dana is a southern punk rock person. Interesting.
- As is her desire to work with Jeff Kent.
- Jeff's plan to not reveal his being a former baseball player with a tonne of money is to instead claim that he has a ranch in San Antonio? Um...
- My girl Sarah Dawson knows who Jeff Kent is. And she's planning on using the information strategically. Well done.
- His actual backstory is that he rides motocross for fun, but sells motorcycles? And he owns a ranch? I mean, come on.
- Oh no Lisa is going to do the opposite of playing cutthroat and is going to try to get to know everybody on a personal level.
- And she starts with her Ministry for Moms job. I don't think that RC and Abi is the right audience.
- And Lisa is isolating herself even further.
- Skupin hasn't lost his awareness for the game. That is going to be
- Denise picking up on Zane's tattoos and backstory is something I didn't expect.
- Then Roxanne picking up on Zane making alliances with every person in the game is just as interesting.
- Zane then bringing in the guys by saying that he has an alliance with everybody else, which sets Malcolm's radar. Malcolm is going to be interesting.
- Malcolm has too much of a hard-on to get rid of Russell swan. It's kinda like Ralph and the other Russell from Redemption Island, and it's probably going to bite him in the ass.

- Skupin is stepping up as leader.
- But what the hell, would you stop getting hurt Skupin?
- And there's Pete with our first joke about somebody's accident in their last appearance which severely hurt them. Yay.
- The Red tribe is going after Penner, who is looking for the immunity idol.
- He gets a clue about it being under his nose, which is obviously the giant symbol thing on the box that the rice came in, but he doesn't put 2 and 2 together.
- And then Russell flukes into the same idol clue.
- Which gets him into trouble with Zane (who caught him looking at the clue). But Zane has his own trust issues with the rest of the tribe, and he seems to think that Russell already has the idol. That could be a problem.

- Wait, they got war paint but we weren't told? Why not?
- The immunity idol is a chicken.
- Make that immunity idols.
- The non-leader Russell Swan steps up to tell his team to calm down.
- And then he stops any dissentors from talking bad about his plan for the immunity challenge (at least until he explains it completely.)
- Is Zane supposed to be the Joker or Abe "Knuckleball" Schwartz?
- Zane did not help his cause with his performance there
- What does Malcolm have on his torso that has to be blurred?
- Probst was so happy to announce that Skupin was so far in the lead.
- What the hell happened with Malcolm and Denise that they were overtaken by the far behind red tribe?
- The best part of having three tribes is how much more emphasis and pressure Jeff can put on the tribes.
- Shockingly, Purple is
- "I told you, I'm not good at puzzles," really doesn't address the part where you guys were in last before even starting your puzzle.
- Then Non-Leader Russell steps up to admit that he bears some responsibility for choosing the pairings.
- Russell: "We just have to click the next time. And that's the beauty Jeff, there's always a next time"
  Jeff: "There's a next time for 5 of you." <- That's why Jeff Probst is awesome.
- Malcom puts the blame on Russell for not listening to anybody, but who was the one who took a huge lead into the water before getting overtaken?

- Non-Leader Russell gives a pep talk to his tribe that doesn't believe in him...
- Zane all of the sudden interrupts Russell and proceeds to throw himself under the bus. Interesting. He talks about how Russell had to literally pull him along and that he didn't deserve to be there.
- Russell is pleased by this
- Zane, OTOH, explains to us that this is his plan. He's going to act weak so that his tribe will want to carry him along as a liability instead of a strong player. Which would be smart if we were close to a merge or something. But after the FIRST CHALLENGE?
- This plan is Luwan-esque.
- "I'm playing chess the best way I know how, and hopefully, I'm gonna king me." How was that not the title of the show?
- What is with people from Danville, Virginia wanting to get voted out in the first tribal council?
- Non-Leader Russell tells Angie and Roxanne that it looks like Zane is the vote. Which is cool. He then continues to talk.  Which isn't.
- "All I have to say is Welcom to Survivor, dig deep, you guys got it in you." I mean, that's what a non-leader would say.
- Angie now lambasting the Non-Leader for trying to lead while saying he's not a leader, and then not leading very well.
- (BTW, I am going to drive this Non-Leader joke into the ground, if I haven't already. Be forewarned.)
- The cameraman does a pretty good job of making sure that we notice Angie's bum.
- Okay Angie, you told him that you weren't good at puzzles. You were also working from behind. You'd need to be Boston Rob to have come back from that deficit.
- And now Angie confronts Zane about giving up, which he claims he isn't doing. Um, saying you deserve to be voted out is giving up.
- Angie comes back with the big revelation that she and Roxanne wanted to run but he ran instead. Here's the thing, Russell and Zane got the oars to Malcolm and Denise in pretty reasonable time. Then that lead was decimated by Malcolm and Denise's inability to row. Unless you want to blame Russell for putting them on rowing and swimming, this wasn't his fault or Zane's fault. But the real culprits skate away without even a hint of getting voted out. Ridiculous.
- "You aren't going home, because we need you. We need some laughter." You also need to actually win a challenge, which seems less likely with Zane.
- "You ain't never seen a move like this in Survivor history." Well, that's true in a sense. I mean, Richard Hatch threw a challenge because he knew that he would make the final 2 either way, but he didn't ask for either person to vote him out.
- Malcolm asks Zane if he really wants to go, and that he would prefer Zane to stay. Zane interprets this to mean that Russell is gone unless he has an idol. I interpret it to mean that Malcolm would like Zane to commit to actually playing the game and not whining about it being hard but him not giving up but he deserves to be voted out.
- Zane then offers up that Russell has an idol. Malcolm immediately interprets that as being sketchy (going back to the trust issue that Zane created earlier.)
- What is with the theory that Zane, Malcolm and Denise seem to have that since Russell has an immunity idol, this gives Zane a chance to stay because they will vote Russell out. Isn't that the point of a hidden immunity idol?
- Both Denise and Malcolm touch on Zane's weakness in the challenge and how that doesn't help things.
- Russell at least realizes that his Non-Leader act wasn't very Non-Leader like.
- "You never know with this game. I mean, these people could vote me out tonight." Not the best of quotes for you Russell.
- Holy crap a cobra at Tribal Council.
- Denise praises Russell's knowledge as helpful, but derides his return as ruining the purity of the game.
- This turned into a big "Russell is a dictator, but is going to change his ways" discussion. That's not good for Russell.
- But of course Zane brings up that he volunteered to get voted out, and that might help Russell wiggle off the hook.
- The votes are in and Zane reacts in shock when his name comes up a third time.
- And sure enough, Zane gets voted out.