Survivor: Cook Islands Episode 12 Thoughts

Welcome to the post I've been trying to avoid writing.

(Well, avoid is pretty strong. It's been a long week of celebrating birthdays and continuing my drive to make the 12 hour work day a reality.)

The thing is, it's a bit depressing to talk about what happened on this episode. There was a fun moment when Ozzy, Yul and Becky talked about hiding food on Raro, only to get shamed into not hiding it once Parvati and Adam brought food back. And the family competition was fun to watch (especially Jonathan blatantly wishing his wife good bye before going to Exile Island even though I'm pretty sure he wasn't going to be allowed to). But beyond that, this was an episode where logic went out the window.

Really, it begins and ends with the decision to give Jonathan the boot instead of Adam. Let me count the ways that this was stupid:

1. Jonathan has never won a challenge. Adam has won immunity once.
2. Jonathan is not a threat to win the game over anybody else. Adam will rock the Raro vote all the way to victory (deserved or not).

3. Jonathan does work around camp. Adam prefers to spend time with his harem. (Not that I necessarily blame him.)
4. Parvati will not team with Jonathan in an attempt to swing the 4-2 situation to a 3-3 situation. Parvati was jealous that Adam wasn't spending enough time with her. Do you think she might try to work with Adam?

The last item is the one that really gets me. Previews for next week show that the Aitu alliance is starting to crack, with Ozzy thinking of making the jump, while Yul et al think of giving Ozzy the boot. While this means that it won't be happening this week, it does mean that Parvati or Adam stands a shot at Final 4. If Ozzy doesn't win immunity, Aitu has to start thinking about getting rid of him because he's always a threat to win challenges, and Final 4 is crunch time (more on this in a second). Ozzy's show of rebellion might push them to make the move. (And yes, this is the same Ozzy that threw a challenge because he didn't like somebody in his tribe.)

The fine Survivor podcast Armchair Survivor has this pegged - it is much like Survivor: Vanaatu where the women had the game in the palm of their hands, but turned on each other before eliminating the last surviving man (Chris), leading to Chris winning the game. Another comparison would be to Survivor: Guatemala where Stephanie's tribe turned on each other before eliminating Danni and Gary, leading to Danni hanging around and ultimately winning the game. The one huge difference between this vote and the others is the make up of the jury. Danni and Chris won because of lingering bitterness over the dominant tribe's break up. This year though, the "losing" tribe has more members on the jury than the dominant tribe. And we know that at least 2 members of that tribe will have no ill-will to their former tribe members because they were betrayed in the same act. 1 member of the "losing" tribe jury members will have spent no time in a tribe with the remaining members of Aitu, while the other 3 will have spent the first 6 days with them, which is not enough time for bonds to have grown. So why bring somebody who was in the tribe and seems to be liked by said members of the tribe any further along than necessary? Because the other option annoys you? Suck it up! Nobody said this was going to be easy, and if the worst thing you have to deal with is an abrasive personality, then I think there are many other Survivors who would have gladly traded spots with you.

Onto the lists.

Most likely to win the game:

LW TW  Name 
 1  1  Yul 
 2  2  Ozzy 
 3  3  Becky 
 5  4  Adam 
 4  5  Sundra 
 6  6  Parvati 
 7  -  Jonathan 

Who I want to win:

LW TW  Name 
 1  1  Yul 
 2  2  Ozzy 
 3  3  Becky 
 5  4  Sundra 
 6  5  Parvati 
 7  6  Adam 
 4  -  Jonathan 

This week is odd for predicting who gets the boot. There are only 2 episodes left, but 6 survivors. Which means we are going to see a double boot this week (which I don't see happening), or they are going to do something wacky on the finale (Run the final 5 challenge normally, but run the final four and have the top 2 as the finalists? Do something completely wacky and have 3 finalists?) So I'll just make a prediction of Adam to go this week, and let things fall where they may.