Survivor: Cagayan Episode 9 Power Rankings

7. Jefra

My struggle with Jefra is that I don't know what her story is. What I mean is that should she get to final tribal, I don't know what she will say to convince the jury that she deserves the win. She can't really play the underdog card; going back to her alliance this week made sure of that. Personal growth? She is very young, so I can see that as a possibility but a difficult sell. The problem is that it isn't easy for her to explain her personal growth. She didn't have to struggle, really. Other than LJ's blind side, she didn't really have much adversity. Stuff like living in the wild sounds great in theory, but most people will just shake that off as irrelevant to the game.

I think Jefra has a good shot at making it to final tribal, but even if she does, she has virtually no chance of winning.

Best final three: Kass, Woo

In this case, she has orchestrated Tony's demise some how, and Woo hasn't gone on a massive immunity streak. So she's banking on Woo not having a story either, and Kass having a story that angers the jury. I don't see it happening that way though.

6. Spencer

Spencer has a strong chance to win if he makes final tribal. He has a great story of overcoming adversity; he has big moves that he can point to; and he has immunity wins to boot. With that said, he's in a lot of trouble because everybody knows that he is a huge threat to win the game if he makes it to final tribal.

He has to start to take a page from the Sandra playbook and just play 3 days at a time with the attitude of "Anybody but me."

If Tony has a crazy idea to vote somebody else out? Great! Who'd you like to take out Tony?

Kass wants to stir up some more chaos? No problem! Tell me what you want to do!

This has to be his game for the next while, unless he plans on going on an immunity run. Even then, he's in a tough spot.

Best final three: Jefra, Woo

Jefra is a given; she is a goat for Spencer. Woo is a more difficult call; I chose him because he is more likely to be following somebody else's lead and not arranging a major move. Tasha and Kass are also possibilities here.

5. Tasha

Tasha's story is the same as Spencer's. The biggest difference is that Tasha seems to be sliding a bit under the radar. Spencer is still considered to be a bigger threat, and Tony still exists as a possible blind side (idol excluded from this conversation.) Tasha could just walk through to the final 5, without being threatened. At that point she needs to make one move and she could get into the final tribal.

The flip side is that if Spencer wins immunity this week, she is the bvious target. And this drags her down a lot.

Best final three: Jefra, Woo

What I said for Spencer, holds true for Tasha as well. Really, she and Spencer should probably bring the group of three that allows them to make final 5/4.

4. Woo

Here's the thing about Woo: he could very well be Natalie White to Tony's Russell Hantz. If the jury hates Tony, then Woo just needs to be a better choice than the other person he's up against. He seems to be friendly with everybody, and if he throws in another immunity challenge win, he's in a good spot.

The challenge for Woo is that he needs to provide a story for the jury. I don't think he can do it. Which means that he is very much reliant on a bitter jury, and I don't know that this jury is going to be that bitter.

Best final three: Tony, Jefra

Woo's best case scenario is that the jury does not like Tony at all and is looking for somebody else to give the money to. That's where Woo's best chance lies, and is going to require him to have a good tribal council showing as well. If he can reconcile how he let Tony make all of the decisions but still was an equal partner to Tony he will be laughing.

3. Kass

I don't believe that we are here. Heck, this might be too high of a rating. But somehow Kass has made her inexplicable flip make sense and put her in a position that she is the official dark horse to win this season.

This isn't to defend her decision, BTW. It was incredibly short sighted and put her in a much worse position. But there are two themes to this season: The person who makes the least mistakes this season will win, and it is much better to be lucky than good. I am definitely interested in seeing what she would say at final tribal; I am hoping her lawyer background will make her performance great, but I am also aware that it could go off the rails real easy. Probably the most intriguing finalist possibility, because what she is capable of at final tribal covers the entire spectrum of performances.

Best final three: Jefra, Woo

Tony could replace Woo or Jefra, depending on how angry the jury is. The key for Kass is that she has a big move she can point to that worked out for her. And she somehow survived after being a multi time flipper. But that's about it. If the jury is going to reward somebody for game play, Kass needs to be the one who has the best game play on the jury to win.

2. Trish

Since I'm comparing people to finalists, Trish is Stephen Fishbach to Tony's JT. Her plays aren't obvious to everybody, so she's going to have a difficult time explaining why she deserves the money over Tony. But her game has been great, even when it looked shaky after the Cliff/Lindsay boots. She likely won't get the credit she deserves, and she probably can't beat Tony. But she can beat almost anybody else, and that's important.

Best final three: Jefra, Woo

It's repetitive, but going in with 2 other members of her alliance who did virtually nothing will make her look somewhat loyal and make her game play shine.

1. Tony

I've discussed Tony a lot, so let me get this off my chest:

I want Tony to lose.

I want him to get booted before making final tribal. I want it to be patently obvious to him that he was going to get booted, and then he does.

Frankly, Tony's played a great game. But the arrogance that he's showing now that he's in control, and the immaturity he shows when he's being targetted is grating on me. It's as though he feels that only good things should happen to him, and if something bad happens, he doesn't deserve it and it's time to complain.

And the arrogance irks me because it shows a complete lack of awareness as to how lucky he is to be in this game. At the merge, he blew is idol play; if it wasn't for Kass and her flip his game would essentially be done. He needs to acknowledge this at final tribal, or else he could be in a lot of trouble.

Best Final 3: Woo, Jefra

Really, this is Woo and another member of Tony's alliance. Whether that's Trish or Kass. Tony can't risk bringing Spencer or Tasha, lest their underdog status beat his gameplay. Trish is too much of a risk to bring along; and who knows what sort of performance Kass will give. So instead, Tony can go safe and bring those that have the worst narratives for final tribal. From there he just hopes that the jury is willing to listen.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 9 Thoughts

An ode to the Tyler Perry idol...

A lot of people (including people much smarter than me) have basically put Tony into the final 4. They do this because of Tony's discovery of the Tyler Perry idol. I think this is short sighted at best.

The Tyler Perry idol is a throw back to Cook Islands (and Panama) and the idol that Yul Kwon used and abused with great skill to make it to final tribal to win. And it is this that everybody remembers. The problem is that using Cook Islands to guide your thinking on how the idol will be used going forward is a bit akin to applying strategy from Borneo to current day Survivor: While it might give you a bit of a guide, it can not be applied directly to current day Survivor. There are too many seasons that have passed, and the game has evolved.

What made the Tyler Perry idol so powerful in Cook Islands was that nobody had any experience in playing with an idol in the game, so when they were confronted with the fact that Yul had an idol, they basically did not see a point to vote Yul out. Now, people know how to play against idols. They know they can split votes if they know that an idol is in play. They know how to bob and weave around idols. Most importantly, people are less afraid of idols in general.

In this case, the only way that Tony would be threatened by being voted out is if two players from his alliance would jump ship against him. If that happens, then Tony would only have a one week reprieve, and then he would face a 3-3 split vote (at best). And then he would have to deal with the fallout of deceiving his alliance one last time, after swearing that he wouldn't.

But what if he were to reveal that he had the idol? He could hold it over everybody else, sure. But since he can not play it on other people, it would be easy for a majority alliance to work around him and take out his supporting cast. With

And with all this in mind, it is very important to note that Tony is in the majority alliance right now. The only way that he can even be targetted prior to, say, the final 5, would be if he lost a majority of his alliance. And if that happens, he will be targetted after that. So if it comes to that, he will still be in trouble.

In short, this defeatist attitude about Tony having an incredibly overpowered idol is based off of old history and a bit overblown.